ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[South Texas Storms]

I just saw the NWS FWD home page, graphic sums it up.

So irritating. Why can't there be a ridge over the SE US to steer it this way? We just can't catch a break to save us. The only time NW flow aloft is good for us is in May (plains storms migrate down overnight), and last May we got nothing from it.

I feel the same way jasons. I've just been so frustrated with this pattern for the past few months. We have been so unlucky. Isn't it time for us to catch a break?

[lonelymike]

Gee, I wonder what we did before the models? Intuition? Hunches? I wonder how many were correct?

It was a combination of Benji the magic monkey picking a location out of a jar, Willy the town drunk throwing darts at a map, and Kazsham the town fortune teller peering at a magic 8 ball ... Kinda like the NAM

[jasons2k]

AFM, please tell me that at least deep south TX has a chance to get some rain from this?

Perhaps a little...but I don't think the EURO is right...never have. There is a LOT of dry air camped over the Gulf and I just don't see it modifying quick enough.

I only have a little hope for this one giving us some relief. Do you think the WGOM is shutting down after this system?

I think the BoC and Mexico may still be in the game, but it's pretty much over for Texas. This front was a pretty strong one pushing the dry air deep down into the Gulf. We *may* have a window of a week, two weeks tops, at the very end of the month for a recovery and for some SE flow to develop, but that's it. Once we get to about October 5th it's over for good, if it's not already.

[RL3AO]

Guys. This is pathetic. This thread is for the 96L models. If you want to have the euro vs gfs fight then start a thread on it, but from the looks of it, it would get locked pretty quickly.

[caneman]

"punked again"? LOL..Has many 6z and 18z gfs runs have been laughable this year? LOTS

GFS gets its first base-hit of the season. Starters for the Astros have a higher percentage than that.

Did pretty well as I recall on Irene. As I recall Euro started it off going to Tx/Mx. hardly a noteworthy performance by the Euro this year. And that my friend is why we go with the blend. Back on topic..

[Tireman4]

XTRP!!!

[Dave]

[clfenwi]

Twice in a row now, advisories have been initiated on a system while the current GFDL run dissipated it.

WHXX04 KWBC 071740

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 7

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.7 93.2 360./ .0

STORM DISSIPATED AT 0 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[KWT]

GFDL really doesn't have much of a clue when it comes to these sorts of systems.

ECM looks too agressive IMO as others have hinted at.

[craptacular]

URNT15 KNHC 072030
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 26 20110907
202030 1942N 09200W 9892 00145 //// +236 //// 239033 034 031 002 01
202100 1943N 09201W 9889 00146 //// +232 //// 244034 037 033 002 05
202130 1944N 09202W 9883 00152 //// +226 //// 242034 035 031 002 01
202200 1945N 09203W 9877 00157 //// +237 //// 245032 033 030 002 01
202230 1946N 09204W 9888 00145 //// +239 //// 242032 033 031 002 05
202300 1947N 09205W 9885 00146 //// +239 //// 241034 035 032 002 01
202330 1948N 09206W 9901 00131 //// +239 //// 240034 034 032 001 01
202400 1949N 09208W 9868 00160 //// +238 //// 242034 035 033 002 01
202430 1950N 09209W 9877 00153 //// +240 //// 241034 034 031 002 01
202500 1951N 09210W 9884 00144 //// +239 //// 239034 035 034 001 01
202530 1952N 09211W 9886 00142 //// +240 //// 241031 033 031 001 01
202600 1953N 09212W 9878 00149 //// +240 //// 242030 032 031 000 01
202630 1954N 09213W 9884 00142 //// +241 //// 242030 031 030 001 01
202700 1955N 09214W 9881 00143 //// +244 //// 241029 030 029 002 01
202730 1956N 09215W 9878 00146 //// +245 //// 242028 029 029 002 01
202800 1957N 09216W 9884 00140 //// +245 //// 242027 028 028 001 01
202830 1958N 09217W 9876 00146 //// +245 //// 241025 026 025 002 01
202900 1959N 09218W 9877 00144 //// +246 //// 245023 024 025 002 01
202930 2000N 09219W 9880 00141 //// +250 //// 242022 023 024 001 01
203000 2001N 09221W 9877 00142 //// +250 //// 239021 022 016 003 01

Next set should include the area where they found the possible center on the first pass.

[otowntiger]

I think the BoC and Mexico may still be in the game, but it's pretty much over for Texas. This front was a pretty strong one pushing the dry air deep down into the Gulf. We *may* have a window of a week, two weeks tops, at the very end of the month for a recovery and for some SE flow to develop, but that's it. Once we get to about October 5th it's over for good, if it's not already.

How depressing for you guys! I know we've been drier than usual around here and I've complained about it but we are doing great rainfall wise compared to Texas. Man, I really hate to see this drought continue to put a stranglehold on your landscape.

[Dave]

[craptacular]

On the lookout for possible VDM:

URNT15 KNHC 072040
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 27 20110907
203030 2003N 09222W 9878 00142 //// +249 //// 236017 018 016 002 01
203100 2004N 09223W 9884 00137 //// +250 //// 236015 016 018 000 01
203130 2005N 09224W 9878 00143 //// +250 //// 235015 015 017 002 01
203200 2006N 09225W 9875 00144 //// +250 //// 234015 015 015 002 01
203230 2007N 09226W 9877 00141 //// +250 //// 231013 014 011 003 01
203300 2008N 09227W 9882 00137 //// +253 //// 233011 012 009 003 01
203330 2009N 09228W 9877 00141 //// +251 //// 232009 010 006 003 01
203400 2010N 09229W 9884 00135 //// +252 //// 225009 009 008 002 01
203430 2012N 09230W 9878 00141 //// +251 //// 214007 008 006 002 05
203500 2013N 09232W 9884 00135 //// +255 //// 236005 005 005 001 01
203530 2014N 09233W 9876 00142 //// +250 //// 221004 004 008 002 05
203600 2015N 09234W 9884 00135 //// +250 //// 230003 004 003 003 01
203630 2016N 09235W 9882 00137 //// +250 //// 283002 003 008 002 01
203700 2017N 09236W 9874 00142 //// +245 //// 325001 002 007 003 01
203730 2018N 09237W 9880 00137 //// +250 //// 176002 002 006 001 01
203800 2020N 09238W 9876 00141 //// +250 //// 199004 005 004 001 01
203830 2021N 09239W 9880 00137 //// +251 //// 190005 005 004 003 01
203900 2022N 09240W 9879 00139 //// +250 //// 167004 005 003 001 01
203930 2023N 09242W 9879 00137 //// +250 //// 144004 004 003 001 01
204000 2024N 09243W 9879 00139 //// +250 //// 121004 004 003 002 05

[KWT]

I'm definitely not AFM but it is that time of year for the WGOM give or take a week or so. With a front this strong my amateur opinion is that the answer is yes. Of course with the tropics NOTHING is absolute.

Indeed never say never, the fear though has to be the La Nina strengthens again and that upper high just sits there this winter again.

Anyway quite alot of uncertainty about the possible strength, the dry air is certainly an issue but given its a fairly small system as long as shear stays low the dry air may not be as severe of a problem as some think.

[Portastorm]

A strong tropical storm moving north and to the east of Texas would be devastating for us. It would re-create the critical fire weather conditions which we had this past weekend and which helped spur the many fires still burning, including the monster in Bastrop County.

If this thing doesn't rain of us ... I hope it fizzles out in the BofC.

[bohaiboy]

According to local KHOU newsblast in Houston, we have a tropical depression in the BOC.

[KWT]

The other thing to note is this area can support hurricanes, we saw last year with Karl the way it got much stronger then expected. I don't think conditions are anywhere near as condusive but just something to try and remember.

[HenkL]

Center around 20.3N 92.6W.

[Dave]

[bamajammer4eva]

Not sure what they talking about

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
342 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2011

.LONG TERM...[SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
NUMBERS BUT THERE IS A LOW WHICH CAME INTO THE PICTURE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. GUIDANCE HAS A POOR HANDLE ON THE
PATH OF THE FEATURE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL OUTPUTS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER TIME WITH FORECASTS PATH EACH MODEL HAS CALCULATED.
THE NAM...UK MET...AND GEM ARE BUNCHING TOGETHER ON SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. HOWEVER THE GFS MODEL DIFFERS WITH THE OTHERS IN THAT IT
IS GOING FOR BROWNSVILLE OR POINTS SOUTH. THE EURO HAS JUST COME ON
BOARD WITH THIS. WE WERE CONSIDERING WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN IF A VORTEX
WAS BOGUSED BY NCEP INTO THE GFS IN THIS GYRE...AND IF THAT WOULD
KICK THE GFS INTO ALIGNMENT WITH THE FIRST THREE. HARD TO SAY
DEFINITIVELY. THERE IS AN OPEN CELL CU FIELD ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE
SHOWING AN INFLOW. THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERED IN THEIR HANDLING OF AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM WESTLANT INTO
THE EASTERN GULF. SO TO SUMMARIZE...THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE CALCULATING
THE LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ECMWF HAS IT REACHING
THE LA GULF COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ASSERTS A WEAK
TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING RIDGE PUSHING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE MEXICAN
COAST BETWEEN TAMPICO AND BROWNSVILLE. STAY TUNED...IT COULD BE A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.