ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[underthwx]

A strong tropical storm moving north and to the east of Texas would be devastating for us. It would re-create the critical fire weather conditions which we had this past weekend and which helped spur the many fires still burning, including the monster in Bastrop County.

If this thing doesn't rain of us ... I hope it fizzles out in the BofC.

me too Port.....

Brownsville NWS...
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NEVER SAY NEVER...BUT THINGS
GETTING A BIT MORE INTERESTING WITH DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...LIKELY TO BE CALLED NATE SOON. NEW ECMWF NOW TRENDING
TOWARD A WESTWARD SOLUTION...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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[craptacular]

URNT15 KNHC 072050
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 28 20110907
204030 2025N 09244W 9885 00133 //// +250 //// 115006 006 007 003 05
204100 2027N 09245W 9877 00141 //// +251 //// 106006 006 005 002 01
204130 2028N 09246W 9879 00139 //// +251 //// 089007 007 007 003 05
204200 2029N 09248W 9880 00138 //// +250 //// 078008 008 003 002 05
204230 2030N 09249W 9880 00138 //// +251 //// 064008 009 002 003 01
204300 2031N 09250W 9880 00138 //// +255 //// 060009 010 005 002 01
204330 2032N 09251W 9878 00139 //// +255 //// 061010 011 006 001 01
204400 2033N 09252W 9877 00141 //// +255 //// 063010 010 004 001 01
204430 2034N 09254W 9879 00139 //// +255 //// 062010 011 006 002 01
204500 2035N 09255W 9881 00138 //// +255 //// 063012 012 007 002 05
204530 2036N 09256W 9877 00141 //// +255 //// 062012 013 007 002 01
204600 2038N 09257W 9873 00145 //// +255 //// 065013 014 009 000 01
204630 2039N 09258W 9884 00136 //// +255 //// 066014 015 006 003 01
204700 2040N 09300W 9882 00137 //// +255 //// 064014 015 009 004 01
204730 2041N 09301W 9877 00142 //// +255 //// 066014 014 010 001 01
204800 2042N 09302W 9883 00137 //// +255 //// 064014 014 008 002 01
204830 2043N 09303W 9880 00140 //// +255 //// 064014 014 011 001 01
204900 2044N 09305W 9877 00143 //// +255 //// 063014 014 011 000 01
204930 2045N 09306W 9872 00148 //// +255 //// 056013 014 /// /// 05
205000 2044N 09307W 9881 00140 //// +255 //// 047011 012 004 004 05

[lrak]

I think the BoC and Mexico may still be in the game, but it's pretty much over for Texas. This front was a pretty strong one pushing the dry air deep down into the Gulf. We *may* have a window of a week, two weeks tops, at the very end of the month for a recovery and for some SE flow to develop, but that's it. Once we get to about October 5th it's over for good, if it's not already.

How depressing for you guys! I know we've been drier than usual around here and I've complained about it but we are doing great rainfall wise compared to Texas. Man, I really hate to see this drought continue to put a stranglehold on your landscape.

I am depressed. And the wildlife...poor little guys.

[Dave]

GE is updating very slow for me.

[KWT]

bamajammer4eva, the GFS creates a flase vortex, so if it starts with the wrong idea of the circulation, the rest will be a little more suspect, esp with regards to strength.

[burasgal01]

Irak, maybe ya'll will get some much needed rain in the coming days.

[Aric Dunn]

hmmm they bring to a hurricane..

[bamajammer4eva]

bamajammer4eva, the GFS creates a flase vortex, so if it starts with the wrong idea of the circulation, the rest will be a little more suspect, esp with regards to strength.

Ok then. With the Euro now agreeing though, the GFS should be more believable now I would guess/hope.

[Extratropical94]

TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
2100 UTC WED SEP 07 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 92.4W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 75SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 92.4W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 92.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.0N 92.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 90SE 75SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.1N 91.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.4N 92.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.0N 92.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.5N 93.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N 95.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 23.0N 96.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 92.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/ZELINSKY

[burasgal01]

Maybe now with better information in computer, they will get a good idea of where it may go.

[Extratropical94]

TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CURVED BANDING
FEATURES NOTED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LAND AND PEMEX OIL
RIGS...ALONG WITH AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DATA...SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED...WITH
LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOTED. THUS ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED
ON THIS SYSTEM. SINCE THE RECON PLANE FOUND 53 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL
ALONG WITH SFMR VALUES OF 40 TO 45 KT...THE CYCLONE IS BEING NAMED
NATE WITH A CONSERVATIVE INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 KT.

NATE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING
FACTOR IS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THIS DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER...IF AT ALL...IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MOST MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.

THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING DURING THE DAY...WITH A LONG-TERM
MOTION OF ABOUT 110/2. NATE IS IN AN AREA OF VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF LEE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. LITTLE NET MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO THIS PATTERN. AFTER THAT TIME...A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO BUILD...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE NATE TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTH...EVENTUALLY BENDING TO
THE LEFT AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MEXICAN
RIDGE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGES...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO
THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS...A BIT SOUTH OF THE ECMWF MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 20.2N 92.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 20.0N 92.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 20.1N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 20.4N 92.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 21.0N 92.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 22.5N 93.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 23.0N 95.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 23.0N 96.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/ZELINSKY


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011

...TROPICAL STORM NATE FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS ISSUED FOR MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 92.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST. NATE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION
IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. DATA FROM PEMEX
OIL RIGS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43
MPH...70 KM/H...GUSTING TO 50 MPH...80 KM/H.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE UNIT AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT...AND COULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL... NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE...TABASCO...AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/ZELINSKY

[lrak]

Irak, maybe ya'll will get some much needed rain in the coming days.

you tease I forgot what it smells like. Thanks for the well wishes.

[craptacular]

URNT15 KNHC 072100
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 29 20110907
205030 2042N 09308W 9887 00134 //// +256 //// 042011 012 011 001 01
205100 2041N 09308W 9877 00144 //// +255 //// 043011 012 011 002 01
205130 2039N 09308W 9881 00139 //// +255 //// 044010 011 009 002 01
205200 2037N 09308W 9876 00144 //// +255 //// 043011 011 012 001 01
205230 2036N 09308W 9880 00139 //// +253 //// 045010 010 008 000 01
205300 2034N 09308W 9880 00140 //// +250 //// 058008 009 010 000 01
205330 2033N 09308W 9880 00138 //// +249 //// 064007 008 010 001 01
205400 2031N 09308W 9877 00142 //// +247 //// 066007 007 012 002 01
205430 2029N 09308W 9873 00144 //// +249 //// 060010 012 020 004 01
205500 2028N 09309W 9884 00134 //// +233 //// 054014 018 042 013 05
205530 2026N 09309W 9877 00141 //// +237 //// 048018 020 028 012 01
205600 2025N 09309W 9881 00138 //// +246 //// 002009 013 014 007 05
205630 2023N 09309W 9880 00138 //// +249 //// 347006 006 010 001 01
205700 2021N 09309W 9878 00140 //// +249 //// 356005 006 010 000 01
205730 2020N 09309W 9880 00137 //// +250 //// 359005 005 008 002 01
205800 2018N 09308W 9877 00141 //// +248 //// 342004 005 /// /// 05
205830 2018N 09307W 9880 00138 //// +249 //// 298002 003 007 001 05
205900 2018N 09305W 9880 00138 //// +255 //// 111002 003 009 001 05
205930 2018N 09303W 9881 00137 //// +255 //// 095004 004 008 001 01
210000 2018N 09302W 9879 00139 //// +255 //// 103003 003 007 001 01

[Zampanò]

Two center passes, advisories initiated, and still no VDM? That's a bit unusual isn't it?

[Dave]

[Dean4Storms]

Has anyone seen the Ensembles yet of both GFS and ECMWF?

[craptacular]

URNT15 KNHC 072110
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 30 20110907
210030 2018N 09300W 9876 00141 //// +255 //// 123003 003 006 002 01
210100 2018N 09259W 9881 00136 //// +255 //// 126002 002 006 001 05
210130 2018N 09257W 9880 00136 //// +255 //// 176002 003 005 003 05
210200 2018N 09255W 9879 00136 //// +255 //// 223001 002 003 004 05
210230 2018N 09254W 9880 00136 //// +255 //// 240003 004 007 002 05
210300 2018N 09252W 9881 00133 //// +255 //// 243003 004 002 003 05
210330 2018N 09250W 9880 00135 //// +255 //// 249004 005 004 002 05
210400 2018N 09249W 9879 00136 //// +255 //// 246005 005 007 001 01
210430 2018N 09247W 9878 00137 //// +255 //// 242005 005 004 002 01
210500 2018N 09245W 9880 00135 //// +255 //// 235006 006 007 002 05
210530 2018N 09244W 9880 00135 //// +255 //// 221005 005 006 001 01
210600 2018N 09242W 9881 00134 //// +255 //// 222006 006 003 002 01
210630 2018N 09240W 9880 00136 //// +255 //// 221007 007 003 003 05
210700 2018N 09239W 9880 00135 //// +255 //// 220007 007 006 000 01
210730 2018N 09237W 9881 00135 //// +250 //// 219006 007 005 002 05
210800 2018N 09235W 9879 00136 //// +252 //// 216009 010 002 002 05
210830 2018N 09234W 9880 00135 //// +252 //// 212009 009 005 003 01
210900 2018N 09232W 9879 00135 //// +250 //// 221008 009 007 001 01
210930 2018N 09230W 9881 00133 //// +252 //// 229008 009 004 002 01
211000 2018N 09228W 9882 00133 //// +254 //// 226009 010 009 000 01

[WxGuy1]

Has anyone seen the Ensembles yet of both GFS and ECMWF?

NCEP global ensembles:


NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF):


Lots of variability, but there are more models (GFS, etc.) that indicate a Mexico landfall than anything else.

[bwjnj]

just noticed that they say it is nate and bring it in to tampico 6-7 days as a cat 1

[craptacular]

URNT15 KNHC 072120
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 31 20110907
211030 2018N 09227W 9879 00136 //// +255 //// 225011 011 007 001 05
211100 2018N 09225W 9880 00135 //// +255 //// 223011 011 009 000 01
211130 2018N 09223W 9880 00135 //// +255 //// 223012 013 011 000 01
211200 2018N 09222W 9881 00134 //// +255 //// 216013 013 007 001 01
211230 2018N 09220W 9875 00141 //// +249 //// 209014 016 018 001 05
211300 2018N 09218W 9877 00138 //// +247 //// 210016 017 016 000 01
211330 2018N 09216W 9880 00137 //// +250 //// 212016 017 012 001 01
211400 2018N 09215W 9874 00141 //// +246 //// 209015 016 014 000 01
211430 2018N 09213W 9874 00144 //// +248 //// 207016 017 013 001 01
211500 2018N 09211W 9876 00142 //// +250 //// 207018 018 012 001 01
211530 2018N 09209W 9882 00138 //// +250 //// 203018 018 015 001 01
211600 2018N 09207W 9881 00138 //// +250 //// 206018 018 013 000 01
211630 2018N 09205W 9879 00141 //// +253 //// 206017 018 013 001 01
211700 2018N 09203W 9884 00137 //// +250 //// 207015 016 011 000 01
211730 2018N 09201W 9889 00132 //// +249 //// 207017 020 010 003 01
211800 2019N 09159W 9877 00144 //// +250 //// 205019 019 015 000 01
211830 2019N 09157W 9880 00141 //// +250 //// 207019 019 013 001 01
211900 2019N 09155W 9884 00137 //// +252 //// 203020 020 015 001 01
211930 2019N 09153W 9877 00145 //// +252 //// 203021 022 019 000 01
212000 2019N 09151W 9881 00141 //// +250 //// 196022 022 016 001 01