ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SeminoleWind]

Its hard to believe the GFS when it has Maria going north through the ridge which is not likely

AGREED

[BigA]

I wonder if the best case scenario for everyone would be for this to remain a weak tropical storm so that it doesn't cause much harm in the islands, but catches the trough to turn it northward. If Maria degenerated into a tropical wave, wouldn't it simply move westward with the flow and be much less influenced by troughs, so that it could get into the western Caribbean and conceivably redevelop there...way out in the future, but a thought.

I've noticed that when the NHC lists a storm as maintaining its strength for 5 days that is often a sign that they believe it will dissipate or weaken but are not certain enough to make that prediction outright. I understand this and have no problem with it, but it probably does mean that dissipation is a possibility.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Florida in general has been lucky since 2005.

Except for the 300+ of us that were flooded out in Central FL by TS Fay in Aug 2008.

Sorry MODs, def OT, but give me a mulligan

[sunnyday]

When I hear "hurricane" this year, my mind jumps directly to "recurve." While I definitely don't want a hurricane to hit anywhere, I am so BORED with all of these silly recurves.

[HurricaneWarning92]

When I hear "hurricane" this year, my mind jumps directly to "recurve." While I definitely don't want a hurricane to hit anywhere, I am so BORED with all of these silly recurves.

I agree. This is getting boring now. After 2005, yes, we needed a break, but now its been 3 years that is recurve after recurve...

[chrisjslucia]

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.2N, 63.0W or about 8.6 miles (13.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 78.3 hours (Saturday, September 10 at 5:18PM AST).

The 5 PM track is a little bit away.

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.3N, 63.0W or about 15.8 miles (25.5 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 69.7 hours (Saturday, September 10 at 2:42PM AST).

For St Lucia, very little difference in distance (but a comforting 212 miles) more or less from the same spot - as she crosses Antigua. But it has come forward in time considerably to Friday at 9.48 pm AST - 52+hours from the time of this post. This lady is fast! Good luck to all in Antigua, Barbuda and St Martin.

[WeatherGuesser]

When I hear "hurricane" this year, my mind jumps directly to "recurve." While I definitely don't want a hurricane to hit anywhere, I am so BORED with all of these silly recurves.

I agree. This is getting boring now. After 2005, yes, we needed a break, but now its been 3 years that is recurve after recurve...

Nothing wrong with that at all. Let'em all spin out to sea for the forseeable future.

[RL3AO]

When I hear "hurricane" this year, my mind jumps directly to "recurve." While I definitely don't want a hurricane to hit anywhere, I am so BORED with all of these silly recurves.

I agree. This is getting boring now. After 2005, yes, we needed a break, but now its been 3 years that is recurve after recurve...

This has been one of the worst years this country has seen in terms of natural disasters. Cities have been wiped off the map by tornadoes. Most of Texas is experiencing a once in a lifetime drought. There have been large floods on the east coast. Your need for a hurricane to threaten the US for entertainment purposes is pathetic to say the least.

[hurricaneCW]

Irene wasn't a recurve, she was a prolific rain producer with damage estimates in the billions and Lee's remnants are not making things any better. 2004, 2005, and 2008 were awful years that I'm glad we aren't reliving. By the way the season's not over yet and with the Cape Verde season gradually shutting down, all activity will shift closer to home in the next few weeks. Plus we still don't have an grasp on what and where Maria and Nate will go and how strong they will be.

[kirium]

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.2N, 63.0W or about 8.6 miles (13.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 78.3 hours (Saturday, September 10 at 5:18PM AST).

The 5 PM track is a little bit away.

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.3N, 63.0W or about 15.8 miles (25.5 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 69.7 hours (Saturday, September 10 at 2:42PM AST).

For St Lucia, very little difference in distance (but a comforting 212 miles) more or less from the same spot - as she crosses Antigua. But it has come forward in time considerably to Friday at 9.48 pm AST - 52+hours from the time of this post. This lady is fast! Good luck to all in Antigua, Barbuda and St Martin.

Yuck, unfortunately my plane from San Juan is supposed to land in Antigua at 9:00pm....

I wonder if they'll close the airport for a tropical storm?

[cycloneye]

Yuck, unfortunately my plane from San Juan is supposed to land in Antigua at 9:00pm....

I wonder if they'll close the airport for a tropical storm?

You may have to call your carrier to see what will be the status of your flight.

[Aric Dunn]

Man the GFS is super fast compared to the NHC. GFS has it approaching just north of Barbados in about 36 hours... thats a good 12+ faster than the NHC 5pm forecast. seems odd.

Also the 18z run is a little farther to the SW and stronger.. actually showing up at the 500mb level and going through the NE islands

[Gustywind]

Martinica, Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards are since 5PM under an yellow alert cyclone by Meteo-France.

[AdamFirst]

Martinica, Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards are since 5PM under an yellow alert cyclone by Meteo-France.

Hopefully it's nothing more than a wet, breezy day for you guys in the islands

[expat2carib]

Hi Gusty,

The yellow alert must be because of the wave in front of Maria.......don't you think so?

A yellow for Maria sounds too soon for me.

[HurricaneWarning92]

When I hear "hurricane" this year, my mind jumps directly to "recurve." While I definitely don't want a hurricane to hit anywhere, I am so BORED with all of these silly recurves.

I agree. This is getting boring now. After 2005, yes, we needed a break, but now its been 3 years that is recurve after recurve...

This has been one of the worst years this country has seen in terms of natural disasters. Cities have been wiped off the map by tornadoes. Most of Texas is experiencing a once in a lifetime drought. There have been large floods on the east coast. Your need for a hurricane to threaten the US for entertainment purposes is pathetic to say the least.

huh. i said something wrong? i didnt mean to come off like that...

[KWT]

I'm guessing reconm will head into this system within the next couple of days as well...

Looks like a threat to the NE Caribbean, suspect rain will be the main worry at the moment unless shear weakens alot inn the near future.

[Aric Dunn]

decent shift SW from the 12z and stronger.


18z



12z

[cycloneye]

I'm guessing reconm will head into this system within the next couple of days as well...

Looks like a threat to the NE Caribbean, suspect rain will be the main worry at the moment unless shear weakens alot inn the near future.

Recon for tommorow afternoon.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL STORM MARIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 08/2000Z
B. AFXXX 0114A MARIA
C. 08/1700Z
D. 14.3N 52.0W
E. 08/1930Z TO 08/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



[sunnyday]

If you read my post closely, I stated that I did not want a hurricane to threaten anyone anywhere. I don't find natural disasters to be "entertainment." I just find recurves repetitive and therefore boring.