ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SootyTern]

Even a poorly formed tropical storm can be a dangerous rain event for y'all in the islands. Hopefully Maria will pass you by without incident!

[KWT]

Yeah and as we already know the flooding situation is becoming an ever more dangerous problem for those islands.

[Aric Dunn]

Still riding the 13N line... If this continues over night half the models that have had a wnw motion will begin to shift south more over the NE.

[expat2carib]

We are having thunder and lightning and pouring rain here in St. Maarten because of the wave in front of Maria.

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[cycloneye]

Yeah and as we already know the flooding situation is becoming an ever more dangerous problem for those islands.

The tail of Irene and not the system itself when it moved thru Puerto Rico caused massive floodings with the a little over 20 inches.

[cpdaman]

When I hear "hurricane" this year, my mind jumps directly to "recurve." While I definitely don't want a hurricane to hit anywhere, I am so BORED with all of these silly recurves.

I agree. This is getting boring now. After 2005, yes, we needed a break, but now its been 3 years that is recurve after recurve...

i agree as well....it is very boring for me...i think it's pathetic that people are constantly be rated on here because they have more interest from tracking a storm that targets land then one that goes fishing. it should be to each his own. I know upteen mets who own a home and get all geeked up if a storm is on the way. they understand the risks they take when the live somewhere. I don't mean any harm to anyone's home. But i will not bring this up again anyway. sorry for bothering anyone. you can get excited for a storm and still be sympathetic to someone who suffers damage. . . it's not difficult

[Nimbus]

If Maria isn't going to spin up and climb the wave in front maybe she will stay weak passing through the islands. Don't think she would do too much damage in her current state. The storms have been pulling together late this year closer to 55W, I'm amazed at how lucky Florida has been with the trough.

[Aric Dunn]

interesting HWRF...

[clfenwi]

For the first time, HWRF does something other than carry it as a weak storm throughout the entirety forecast period...

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM MARIA 14L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 7

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -43.00 LAT: 13.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -45.10 LAT: 13.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -47.00 LAT: 13.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -48.80 LAT: 13.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -50.80 LAT: 13.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -52.70 LAT: 13.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -54.20 LAT: 14.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -55.40 LAT: 14.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -56.60 LAT: 15.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -57.50 LAT: 16.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -58.70 LAT: 17.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -59.80 LAT: 18.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -60.80 LAT: 19.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -61.70 LAT: 20.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -62.60 LAT: 21.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -63.50 LAT: 23.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -64.70 LAT: 24.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 65.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -65.70 LAT: 24.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 972.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -66.70 LAT: 24.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 80.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -67.40 LAT: 25.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 956.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -68.00 LAT: 25.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 949.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 95.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -68.30 LAT: 26.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 945.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 97.00
FORECAST RAN COUPLED TO HOUR: 93.1500 93.1500

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


Loop

[cpdaman]

the euro has been streadfast bringin a weaker system into the caribean and in and around the islands

seems like in that case ...this thing may trickle west into NW bahamas or so.

lets c who caves GFS/ or EURo

most see conditions awful/unconductive for this storm thru 24-36 hours. Euro sees conditions poor thru several days.

some think conditions will be better as it gets near leewards due to being on the more conductive side of a kelvin wave....time shall tell

[Aric Dunn]

GFDL is faster now .. farther west but sharp north turn..

[clfenwi]

18Z GFDL, hooks across the Leeward Islands, over the Virgin Islands, and over/just north of Puerto Rico before turning (just) east of the Bahamas.

HOUR: .0 LONG: -43.35 LAT: 12.84 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.43 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.47
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -45.33 LAT: 13.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.39 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.34
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -47.51 LAT: 13.21 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.91 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.68
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -49.85 LAT: 13.43 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.67 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.44
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -52.13 LAT: 13.73 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.47 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.58
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -54.02 LAT: 14.24 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.38 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.81
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -55.85 LAT: 14.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.03 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.76
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -58.27 LAT: 15.15 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.83 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.67
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -60.39 LAT: 15.47 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.89 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.65
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -61.83 LAT: 16.19 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.80 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.26
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -63.26 LAT: 16.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.45 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.35
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -64.98 LAT: 17.59 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.90 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 55.45
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -66.55 LAT: 18.16 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.38 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.32
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -67.54 LAT: 19.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.23 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.17
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -68.88 LAT: 20.35 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.59 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.04
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -70.43 LAT: 21.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 987.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.12
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -71.84 LAT: 22.14 MIN PRESS (hPa): 986.84 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.73
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -72.98 LAT: 23.03 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.84 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.59
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -74.06 LAT: 23.78 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 82.61
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -74.70 LAT: 24.62 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.46 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 80.60
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -74.91 LAT: 25.73 MIN PRESS (hPa): 972.82 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 83.72
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -74.75 LAT: 26.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.20 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 97.22


Loop

[cycloneye]

Aric, this bouy may get interesting data as Maria approaches it late tonight or early tommorow morning.

Bouy 41041

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, this bouy may get interesting data as Maria approaches it late tonight or early tommorow morning.

Bouy 41041

yeah ill be watching.. the NHC mentioned it at 5... although its going to pass a full degree to the south of that that buoy. should have the strongest winds though or pretty close..

[OURAGAN]

This buoy is reporting yet 31,1 KTS, with wind gust to 38,9 KTS.

[Aric Dunn]

This buoy is reporting yet 31,1 KTS, with wind gust to 38,9 KTS.

yeah center should pass about 50 miles to the south of that buoy. besides the winds we will get a better pressure field reading and center location even if it does not pass over it.

[cycloneye]

Peak gust during the measurement hour
TIME
(GMT) GDR GST
2155 E ( 80 deg ) 40.8 kts

[Aric Dunn]

Peak gust during the measurement hour
TIME
(GMT) GDR GST
2155 E ( 80 deg ) 40.8 kts

[msbee]

SxmDCOMM - Office of Disaster Management Recommends Monitoring Approaching Tropical Storm Maria; Construction Sector and Wholesaler Warehouse Storage Depots requested to review plans of actions

By Roddy Heyliger <roddyheyliger at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 7 Sep 2011 17:34:51 -0400



News Release

Department of Communication (DCOMM), Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, Sint Maarten D.W.I. Tel. 00-599-543-1162 , 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net; Website: http://www.sintmaartengov.org

For Immediate Release: Wednesday, September 07, 2011/N239

Office of Disaster Management Recommends Monitoring Approaching Tropical Storm Maria; Construction Sector and Wholesaler Warehouse Storage Depots requested to review plans of actions

GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (DCOMM) – The Office of Disaster Management (ODM) is advising the population of the South side of the island to closely monitor the progress of newly formed and 13th storm of the season Tropical Storm (TS) Maria, which is approximately over 1000 miles from Sint Maarten in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean.

TS Maria is moving at approximately 23 miles per hour on a Westerly track which would bring it in our area over the weekend. Late Thursday an Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft will reach the system to investigate it further.

Tropical Storm Watches (issued 48 hours prior to arrival of storm conditions) could be issued on Thursday morning for the islands of the Northeastern Caribbean which includes Sint Maarten; however it is still too early to say what impact the storm will have on the local weather.

The 10 Emergency Support Functions (ESFs) of the island’s disaster management system have been placed on standby and to monitor closely the progress of TS Maria.

Residents are therefore advised to be prepared to take action if needed.

The ODM is also advising contractors, builders and sub-contractors to review their plans of action in order to take quick action to secure job sites in the event of a passing tropical storm/hurricane.

Materials such as plywood, shingles, zinc, and other construction material could become flying missiles capable of impaling brick walls or anything in its way. Construction debris can cause severe damage to property and cost lives.

Food wholesalers and warehouse depots are requested to review their plan of action to secure their properties in the event of a storm/hurricane threat.

Materials such as plywood, shipping pallets, food pallets, pieces of metal used to secure pallet shipments, can easily become flying missiles and a threat.

The ODM will closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Maria and the public will be informed in future communications and advisories on Thursday and Friday.

Roddy Heyliger (roddyheyliger at gmail.com; 00 599 581-6323 )

Department of Communication (DCOMM), Sint Maarten

[cycloneye]

Is blowing out there on the bouy.

Continuous Winds TIME
(GMT) WDIR WSPD
2250 E ( 79 deg ) 30.9 kts
2240 ENE ( 76 deg ) 29.9 kts
2230 ENE ( 72 deg ) 30.7 kts
2220 ENE ( 73 deg ) 30.7 kts
2210 ENE ( 71 deg ) 28.0 kts
2200 E ( 81 deg ) 27.4 kts

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041