ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[tobol.7uno]

12z vs 18z GFS Ensembles:

I would expect to see that from all of the models, this storm should not move west given the current conditions.

[maxintensity]

so euro flips to the GFS solutions and then GFS ensembles flip to old euro solution. 0z runs should bring clarity.

[amawea]

I am praying that this system can get a lot of moisture slung up into Texas! There has got to be something like this that can bring on a pattern change and bust that ridge over Texas. They need rain and lots of it all over the state. If they can ever get some ground moisture going the atmosphere will take care of the rest. Pray for a break in the weather in Texas!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

These models are giving me a migraine and I never get them Seriously I wouldn't put much stock in the ensemble runs. Remember with Irene the ensembles kept showing her in the central gulf all the while the operationals were trending east each run. Tonights late runs should prove interesting though to see if this is a glitch or they really do start trending more north.

[rockyman]

After reviewing the IR loops and the vorticity maps, it appears that the mid-level center is displaced slightly to the ENE from the low-level center. It will be interesting to see if the LLC tries to reform farther to the east overnight. The farther the LLC gets from the Mexican mainland, the better chance it would have of getting shunted to the northeast.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[3090]

If those model runs are the current trend, they are not the mid Gulf Coast' friend.

[Kennethb]

so euro flips to the GFS solutions and then GFS ensembles flip to old euro solution. 0z runs should bring clarity.

Euro and GFS must be married.

[Frank P]

that just might be the most pitiful TS IR pix I have ever seen

[tobol.7uno]

Euro and GFS must be married.

Ha, thats a good one! They are in a fight at this time.

[rockyman]

that just might be the most pitiful TS IR pix I have ever seen

It looks a little better in motion

[seasons90]

Did TS Lee have any affects on the water temp in the GOM that might hinder or help the development of TS Nate?

[BigA]

Did TS Lee have any affects on the water temp in the GOM that might hinder or help the development of TS Nate?

It caused a little upwelling south of Louisiana. None in the area where Nate is now.

[bella_may]

I'm afraid if this thing goes into the central gulf or eastern gulf it will be much stronger than Lee!!

[tobol.7uno]

All model runs are now complete. Not much to say about this... Really unsure.

[tobol.7uno]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 072341
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
700 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011

...NATE ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 92.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST. NATE IS
CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE CITY OF
CAMPECHE RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH...56 KM/H...
AND A WIND GUST OF 46 MPH...75 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT...AND COULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL... NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE...TABASCO...AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[meriland23]

Wouldn't surprise me if this decided to take a turn for the worst. Had two bfs before named nate and they were both a** holes.

[ROCK]

Wouldn't surprise me if this decided to take a turn for the worst. Had two bfs before named nate and they were both a** holes.

fortunately TCs dont have personalities..... I like the ensembles and sometimes gives hints to what the 0z might look like. But whatever it does as long as it slings some rain this way I am cool with it...

[psyclone]

I'm afraid if this thing goes into the central gulf or eastern gulf it will be much stronger than Lee!!

well quite honestly that's not really saying much. Lee was always an awkward, clunker of a storm. and this one looks very disjointed and convectively anorexic at the moment. certainly nothing to lose sleep over at this point. i realize it is the heart of hurricane season and things can change quickly (that's why we're all here) but thus far this has definitely been a quantity over quality season. a great many names have been checked off the list that even ardent weather geeks will have trouble recalling in a year or 2.

[South Texas Storms]

Wouldn't surprise me if this decided to take a turn for the worst. Had two bfs before named nate and they were both a** holes.

fortunately TCs dont have personalities..... I like the ensembles and sometimes gives hints to what the 0z might look like. But whatever it does as long as it slings some rain this way I am cool with it...

Same here man. You staying up for the Euro tonight? I'm thinking about it...if the 0z can shift just a little north then I think we can get some outer bands here in TX.



0z NAM is more north than 18z.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[TYNI]

I see no circulation at all with this storm at the moment... just some scattered convection...

Uh...

191700 1936N 09257W 9875 00162 //// +215 //// 269051 053 045 001 05

213530 2101N 09224W 9874 00146 //// +257 //// 094028 028 026 002 01

If you can't see a circulation with 50 knots of west winds...and 30 knots of east winds...

Then I can't help ya

That's why I am not a professional met... some of us are learning

edit by mf_dolphin