ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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#881 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 07, 2011 7:22 pm

NEw update on the buoy.. now sustained at TS gusting to 50mph

Peak gust during the measurement hour
TIME
(GMT) 5-day plot - Gust Direction GDR 5-day plot - Gust Speed GST
2320 ENE ( 70 deg ) 44.7 kts

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#882 Postby clfenwi » Wed Sep 07, 2011 7:25 pm

SSD Dvorak estimate

07/2345 UTC 13.2N 45.2W T2.5/2.5 MARIA -- Atlantic
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#883 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 07, 2011 7:29 pm

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 35.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 42.7 kts

The center is passing south of bouy as SSD dvorak position shows.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#884 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 07, 2011 7:30 pm

Here the center in red and the buoy is the black dot. Maria looks to be heading 270 now since it has not gained little if any lat in the last 6 hours. the bouy should experience the strongest winds.


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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#885 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 07, 2011 7:35 pm

Supplemental Measurements Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
2320 38.9 kts ENE ( 70 deg true )
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#886 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 07, 2011 7:57 pm

00z Best Track

As Aric has been saying,moving along the 13 and south of bouy.

AL, 14, 2011090800, , BEST, 0, 133N, 452W, 45, 1002, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#887 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 07, 2011 8:02 pm

And yet, another Aric analysis that is spot on target.

LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 45.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 080052.txt
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#888 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 07, 2011 8:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:And yet, another Aric analysis that is spot on target.

LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 45.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 080052.txt



A Little calculation here.. from the 11am advisory position to the current best track position .... the 10 hour average motion is 275 degrees at 21 mph.. short term motion about last 6 hours is 270 degrees at 21 mph...

pretty sure not one reliable model had a due west motion in their runs....

( hate when i click the Quote button and not the edit button... )
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#889 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 07, 2011 8:20 pm

New update from bouy.

Peak gust during the measurement hour
TIME
(GMT) GDR GST
2320 ENE ( 70 deg ) 44.7 kts


Continuous Winds TIME
(GMT) WDIR WSPD
2350 E ( 80 deg ) 33.8 kts
2340 ENE ( 75 deg ) 30.9 kts
2330 ENE ( 69 deg ) 29.1 kts
2320 ENE ( 69 deg ) 29.7 kts
2310 ENE ( 69 deg ) 26.8 kts
2300 ENE ( 75 deg ) 28.6 kts

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#890 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 07, 2011 8:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:New update from bouy.

Peak gust during the measurement hour
TIME
(GMT) GDR GST
2320 ENE ( 70 deg ) 44.7 kts

Continuous Winds TIME
(GMT) WDIR WSPD
2350 E ( 80 deg ) 33.8 kts
2340 ENE ( 75 deg ) 30.9 kts
2330 ENE ( 69 deg ) 29.1 kts
2320 ENE ( 69 deg ) 29.7 kts
2310 ENE ( 69 deg ) 26.8 kts
2300 ENE ( 75 deg ) 28.6 kts




thats still the old one.. has not updated the peak gusts yet..
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#891 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 07, 2011 8:25 pm

The convection is really displaced (microwave an hour ago).... given the current ridge placement and exiting katia ... a west motion all the way to the islands is becoming more likely. the ridging is stronger than the models are showing.


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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#892 Postby clfenwi » Wed Sep 07, 2011 8:31 pm

Rolling through the model diagnostics for the 12Z runs, it looks like the GFS was closest to best track position with forecast position of 13.3 N 45.4W. FIM also close at 13.4N 45.4W (bt was 13.3N, 45.2W)

Going back 24h... GFS was also best, with predicted position of 13.1N 45.4W. FIM also close at 13.0 45.1... Euro was way south... predicted 11.7N 46.0.

And looking again at the 12Z GFS diagnostics... its forecast keeps Maria on a heading between 273 and 279 through the next 24 hours.
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ATL: MARIA - Models

#893 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 07, 2011 8:34 pm

Since it seems to be just chugging west, how are the conditions in the eastern Caribbean Sea for development?
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#894 Postby BigA » Wed Sep 07, 2011 8:38 pm

00Z early cycle models a bit west of the 18Z cycle early models. Still looks like a recurve east of the CONUS but more models go through the Lesser Antilles and some go closer to the Bahamas.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... t1best.gif
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#895 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 07, 2011 8:41 pm

one lone ensemble member dives WSW across south florida..

Image
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#896 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 07, 2011 8:45 pm

TVCN keeps shifting right I noticed. Has a good chance of passing well east of the Bahamas.

At the rate the models are shifting, may just lift out north of Puerto Rico or even miss the Leewards all together (though looks like the Leewards are going to get impacted)....there just is no steering mechanism to get this west. Looks more like October out there with the pattern.
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#897 Postby BigA » Wed Sep 07, 2011 8:58 pm

gatorcane wrote:TVCN keeps shifting right I noticed. Has a good chance of passing well east of the Bahamas.

At the rate the models are shifting, may just lift out north of Puerto Rico or even miss the Leewards all together (though looks like the Leewards are going to get impacted)....there just is no steering mechanism to get this west. Looks more like October out there with the pattern.


Dissipation would get it farther west. Troughs don't usually pick up tropical waves. That's why the most dangerous thing Maria could do in the next couple of days might be to fall apart. Then it might get into the central or western Caribbean and redevelop there. I think this is a low-probability outcome, though.
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Re: ATL: MARIA- Tropical Storm- Discussion

#898 Postby meriland23 » Wed Sep 07, 2011 9:01 pm

Since it keeps going westward at this pace, what does mean for the chances of it hitting the united states.
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Re: ATL: MARIA- Tropical Storm- Discussion

#899 Postby BigA » Wed Sep 07, 2011 9:03 pm

meriland23 wrote:Since it keeps going westward at this pace, what does mean for the chances of it hitting the united states.


Probably low, unless it dissipates for a while. Whether it moves west or wnw, the trough on the east coast is still there to turn it away. Actually, the faster movement makes it more likely to be turned away by the trough before the trough starts lifting out.

However, if Maria degenerated into a tropical wave, it would likely move more westward, perhaps even into the central or western Caribbean sea. Then if it redeveloped, it would be a totally new ballgame. This, however, is a rather unlikely scenario.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#900 Postby tobol.7uno » Wed Sep 07, 2011 9:12 pm

Models are not dissipating this thing, as a matter of fact, the NHC's intensity forecast lies well below the majority of the models.
Here are the latest models... No threat to the United States.
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