psyclone wrote:bella_may wrote:I'm afraid if this thing goes into the central gulf or eastern gulf it will be much stronger than Lee!!
well quite honestly that's not really saying much. Lee was always an awkward, clunker of a storm. and this one looks very disjointed and convectively anorexic at the moment. certainly nothing to lose sleep over at this point. i realize it is the heart of hurricane season and things can change quickly (that's why we're all here) but thus far this has definitely been a quantity over quality season. a great many names have been checked off the list that even ardent weather geeks will have trouble recalling in a year or 2.
And as a "survivor" of Rita, Humberto, and Ike, I love forgettable Hurricane seasons. My memories are plenty vivid even after a few years!
He's one of our best. We just get a lot of flip comments on here and sometimes it's hard to tell who's just dropping a comment with no support behind it. Try using emoticons or just say something like "I may not be sure about what's going on, but..." and you'd be surprised how many people will jump on here and explain the science in a very polite way. I noticed you've been coming around a lot and we encourage it.
Yeah I miss Quikscat too. These little ASCAT slices are very unsatisfying. But we have RECON now, and they will probably be in there a lot as this has to landfall somewhere, and could quite possibly be a hurricane by then. I'm in the camp that thinks it will make hurricane, BTW. I don't think the dry air will make it into the circulation as much as it did with Lee, because this is further south from the ridiculously dry air and it has less shear forecast. It's the shear, or winds from low to fairly high levels, that force the dry air into the storm's circulation. If the shear stays low, that storm can still intensify surrounded fairly closely by pretty dry air.
