ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneWarning92]

lol nvm... they kept it basically the same as the 5 pm.

[cycloneye]

Track shifted a little to the left as San Juan is more closer at 11 PM than at 5 PM.

Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.5N, 65.0W or about 94.3 miles (151.8 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 75.2 hours (Sunday, September 11 at 2:12AM AST).

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: They will probably shift the track to the west a bit in the medium to long range id think.

as they did. but most of the guidance does not show a west motion for 24+ hours ( or at all ). at current speed and heading in 24 hours thats approximately 480 miles of lon and after doing a quick estimate that would put it south of the forecast track and guidance by about 100 miles... models would of course have to adjust for that.. putting more of the islands in its path. So basically it had better start moving more 280 to 285 ( more is some models which are almost 290 right now) to match the forecast.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

:uarrow: They will probably shift the track to the west a bit in the medium to long range id think.

as they did. but most of the guidance does not show a west motion for 24+ hours ( or at all ). at current speed and heading in 24 hours thats approximately 480 miles of lon and after doing a quick estimate that would put it south of the forecast track and guidance by about 100 miles... models would of course have to adjust for that..

Aric so given the past and current motion of the system do you think tomorrow the track may be shifted further south, puting PR at risk? (verysimilar track to Irene)

[cycloneye]

Local Statement of effects of TS Maria in Puerto Rico.

TROPICAL STORM MARIA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1042 PM AST WED SEP 7 2011

...MARIA RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

.NEW INFORMATION...
ALL SECTIONS ARE NEW.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN
VIEQUES...CULEBRA...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THEIR ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
NONE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME BUT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED LATE THURSDAY.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.4N...LONGITUDE 46.2W. THIS WAS ABOUT 1490 MILES EAST
OF SAN JUAN PR...OR ABOUT 1420 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT
THOMAS VI. STORM MOTION WAS W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM MARIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE WEST OR
WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...MARIA WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
LATE SATURDAY. THERE IS A GENERAL CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
MINOR WIND DAMAGE PRIMARILY TO WEAKENED TREES AND LOOSE OBJECTS
AND ALSO FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...GUTS AND LOW LYING AREAS.


.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR HURRICANE
DISASTER PLAN. VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CHECK WITH HOTEL
MANAGEMENT OR WITH LOCAL OFFICIALS REGARDING ANY ACTIONS THEY
SHOULD TAKE.

THE FOLLOWING ARE SUGGESTED ACTIONS THAT CAN BE TAKEN AT THIS
TIME...
- CHECK BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS.
- STOCK UP ON DRINKING WATER AND CANNED OR DRIED FOOD.
- ENSURE YOU HAVE A MANUAL CAN OPENER.
- HAVE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST THREE TO FIVE DAYS PER PERSON.
- GATHER MEDICINES...TOILETRIES...AND FIRST AID SUPPLIES.
- HAVE A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF CASH ON HAND SINCE CREDIT CARDS AND
AUTOMATED CASH MACHINES DO NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER.
- CHECK FUEL LEVELS ON AUTOMOBILES...GENERATORS...AND CHAIN SAWS.
- IF YOU NEED TO MAKE A TRIP TO THE HARDWARE STORE...THE GROCERY
STORE...OR THE GAS STATION...DO SO AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.
- DETERMINE WHERE YOU SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOUR AREA.
- CONSIDER WHETHER YOU LIVE IN A POTENTIAL EVACUATION ZONE. IF
SO...IDENTIFY PRESCRIBED EVACUATION ROUTES WHICH LEAD OUT OF
THE THREATENED AREAS. - LEARN THE LOCATIONS OF OFFICIAL SHELTERS.

PLEASE VISIT http://WWW.READY.GOV FOR A MORE COMPLETE LIST OF ITEMS TO
INCLUDE IN AN EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS KIT.

IN ALL CASES...HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH
ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.

MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR UNSAFE
CONDITIONS. CONSIDER EARLY STEPS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT. IF
SMALL CRAFT MUST GO OUT AND CURRENT CONDITIONS ALLOW...DO NOT
VENTURE FAR FROM PORT AND DO NOT STAY OUT VERY LONG. RETURN TO
PORT QUICKLY IF A WATCH OR WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

AMZ710-715-722-725-732-PRZ012-013-VIZ001-002-090245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.HU.S.1014.110908T0242Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
CULEBRA-VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
1042 PM AST WED SEP 7 2011

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

[HurricaneWarning92]

:uarrow: They will probably shift the track to the west a bit in the medium to long range id think.

as they did. but most of the guidance does not show a west motion for 24+ hours ( or at all ). at current speed and heading in 24 hours thats approximately 480 miles of lon and after doing a quick estimate that would put it south of the forecast track and guidance by about 100 miles... models would of course have to adjust for that.. putting more of the islands in its path. So basically it had better start moving more 280 to 285 ( more is some models which are almost 290 right now) to match the forecast.

yeah i see what you are saying, but right now the track has it north of the islands (Greater Antilles) so if the models adjust, as they should later on (unless she starts heading more wnw like you said), that would/could put the track right on top of DR, which will probably weaken it quite a bit, if it verifies of course.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: They will probably shift the track to the west a bit in the medium to long range id think.

as they did. but most of the guidance does not show a west motion for 24+ hours ( or at all ). at current speed and heading in 24 hours thats approximately 480 miles of lon and after doing a quick estimate that would put it south of the forecast track and guidance by about 100 miles... models would of course have to adjust for that.. putting more of the islands in its path. So basically it had better start moving more 280 to 285 ( more is some models which are almost 290 right now) to match the forecast.

yeah i see what you are saying, but right now the track has it north of the islands (Greater Antilles) so if the models adjust, as they should later on (unless she starts heading more wnw like you said), that would/could put the track right on top of DR, which will probably weaken it quite a bit, if it verifies of course.

the track is through the NE islands and just skims PR ... any more adjustments and DR will be a possibility.

[Adoquín]

Aric, did you see those water temps right around Puerto Rico and the whole chain of islands? your thoughts on this factor?

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, did you see those water temps right around Puerto Rico and the whole chain of islands? your thoughts on this factor?

yeah, the ssts are plenty warm but upper level winds may not be favorable for a significant strengthening.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Lets see what the 00z GFS has for us.

[clfenwi]

Pretty similar to the 18Z GFS through 72h as far as track is concerned. Through the northern Lesser Antilles in 60h and then north of/over Virgin Islands at 72h.

[cycloneye]

Pretty similar to the 18Z GFS through 72h as far as track is concerned. Through the northern Lesser Antilles in 60h and then north of/over Virgin Islands at 72h.

Maybe a tad stronger.

[clfenwi]

00Z NOGAPS carries a weak system into the middle of the Antilles, then northwest across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico 66-72h. Moves northwest from there to set up this 120h position.



Loop

[SouthFLTropics]

Am I correct in seeing that once again the GFS plows Maria through a decent ridge??? Something isn't stirring the kool aid for me!

SFT

[tobol.7uno]

Am I correct in seeing that once again the GFS plows Maria through a decent ridge??? Something isn't stirring the kool aid for me!

SFT

Looks like it to me. She is going to throw a dart and pop it!

[BigA]

Am I correct in seeing that once again the GFS plows Maria through a decent ridge??? Something isn't stirring the kool aid for me!

SFT

I buy the recurve, but I don't buy the moving NW at 12 one image, then moving east NE at 12 the next. It seems logical that the recurve will be more gradual than the GFS shows.

[Meteorcane]

Am I correct in seeing that once again the GFS plows Maria through a decent ridge??? Something isn't stirring the kool aid for me!

SFT

I buy the recurve, but I don't buy the moving NW at 12 one image, then moving east NE at 12 the next. It seems logical that the recurve will be more gradual than the GFS shows.

Same I cant see this turning on a dime like that, I mean look at Katia she is in the midst of a recurve and she does not change from a 320 degree heading to a 40 degree heading in a couple of hours.

[fci]

Am I correct in seeing that once again the GFS plows Maria through a decent ridge??? Something isn't stirring the kool aid for me!

SFT

Mike Watkins and another member gave an explanation of this several pages back (Page 16 of this thread). Here are the quotes and his response. I am not trained enough to explain his answer so I'll cut and paste:

Vortex wrote:
Maybe someone can explain how it can turn right into that ridge...I cant figure it out ...

SouthDadeFish

If you look at the 500mb winds it is not moving through the ridge. The ridge extends as far west as where it shows 14L recurving. The GFS shows strong troughing over the E Coast of the United States. The 500mb winds give a better depiction of the pattern than the 500mb heights do.

MWatkins

I don't know how to do the right kind of linking, so here's the link out to the 18Z GFS at 138.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... _rh_ht.gif

If you look at the 500 MB height lines, you can see the difference in the placement of the surface high vs. the mid layers:

The chart referenced before is showing surface pressure. However, as we talk about all the time, the mean layer (500MB) is the place to look for steering with a well-developed tropical cyclone.

Although, it is debatable how well-developed the cyclone is in the model at 138, but it is reflecting at 500MB.

Notice the trough over the US east coast, and how little ridging is left north of the system. The system is also due west of what is left of 594 height contour, so this makes total sense in terms of steering.

Whether the GFS completely handles the evolution of the trough and ridge pattern is another matter, but based on this solution, I would expect this sytem to be moving NNW in the mean layer flow.

Hope this helps.

MW

[fci]

Interesting that the NWS in Miami keeps mentioning Maria in their discussions.
If it is supposed to be so apparent that she is going to recurve, then why keep talking about?
Especially for us to keep updated during the weekend????

Here is a snippet from their latest discussion (actually from 2:37 PM but still in the discussion)
South Florida needs to monitor Tropical Storm Maria through the weekend...

Tropical Storm Maria is forecast by the National Hurricane Center
to move to the west northwest late this week and be near the
southern Bahama Islands by Monday morning. The long range models
are also showing Maria to move northwest near the Bahama Islands
early to middle of next week. However...the error on the position
of tropical systems this far out is more than 300 miles. Florida
residents and visitors need to continue to monitor the latest
forecast from the National Hurricane Center on Tropical Storm
Maria through the weekend and into early next week.

[dwsqos2]

0Z Euro is a bit stronger with Maria in the short-term.