ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland23]

gfs six hours ago is so much more different than now. On the 14th of sept, instead of maria being at 30N and 70W like it was on the Oz run, they changed it dramatically to 25N and 80W on the O6z run, almost hugging the SE part of FL where Miami is. Also adding Nate out of nowhere.. significantly to the NE part of the gulf, smashing right into alabama and western FL. FL needs to REALLY keep a eye out for both of these whether you are on the E or W coast, you might get hit with two hurricanes at once. Not to scare, just that model blew me away.

[BigA]

06 HWRF: Weak and west, then northwest through the northern islands, then a hard turn west and deepening. Centered at 23N 70W at the end of the run, moving west.

[Blown Away]

that is almost 10 degrees west and 5 degrees south of what it was supposed to be six hours ago ..

Yeah, just when I started to trust the GFS it does this!

[HurricaneWarning92]

Well thats interesting... wasnt showing a turn west before i believe. (HWRF)

[meriland23]

:uarrow: Well thats interesting... wasnt showing a turn west before i believe.

Not to mention Nate, it is like "where did he come from? He was not even close to there before.." REALLY scary looking at that. Don't want to put fear in anyone cause it is still too early, but a dramatic twist like that leads me to believe they found something significant that could change this outcome so incredibly. FL needs to keep a eye out on BOTH the east and west side. You might get hit with two hurricanes at once. Not probable, or anything, but clearly possible according to this.

[clfenwi]

06Z HWRF... final point is northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM MARIA 14L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 8

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -47.20 LAT: 13.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -49.00 LAT: 13.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -50.80 LAT: 13.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -52.50 LAT: 13.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -53.80 LAT: 13.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -55.20 LAT: 13.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -56.40 LAT: 13.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -57.70 LAT: 14.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 30.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -58.80 LAT: 15.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -59.90 LAT: 15.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 31.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -60.90 LAT: 16.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -61.90 LAT: 16.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -62.90 LAT: 17.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 30.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -63.00 LAT: 18.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -62.90 LAT: 20.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -62.90 LAT: 20.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -63.90 LAT: 21.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -65.00 LAT: 21.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -66.30 LAT: 22.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -67.60 LAT: 22.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -68.90 LAT: 22.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -70.10 LAT: 22.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
FORECAST RAN COUPLED TO HOUR: 96.4500 96.4500



Loop

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011

...MARIA A LITTLE SOUTH OF PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...NOT WELL
ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 50.0W
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...
AND SAINT KITTS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF MARIA IS A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND AT 800 AM AST...
1200 UTC...IT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0
WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL APPROACH
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT MARIA COULD BE
DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE MARIA LATE
TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

Excerpt from 8 AM intermediate advisory.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF MARIA IS A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND AT 800 AM AST...
1200 UTC...IT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0
WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL APPROACH
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT MARIA COULD BE
DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE MARIA LATE
TODAY.

[meriland23]

Excerpt from 8 AM intermediate advisory.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF MARIA IS A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND AT 800 AM AST...
1200 UTC...IT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0
WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL APPROACH
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT MARIA COULD BE
DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE MARIA LATE
TODAY.

tropical wave = possible s**t storm. Oy vey

[sandyb]

Interesting that the NWS in Miami keeps mentioning Maria in their discussions.
If it is supposed to be so apparent that she is going to recurve, then why keep talking about?
Especially for us to keep updated during the weekend????

Here is a snippet from their latest discussion (actually from 2:37 PM but still in the discussion)
South Florida needs to monitor Tropical Storm Maria through the weekend...

Tropical Storm Maria is forecast by the National Hurricane Center
to move to the west northwest late this week and be near the
southern Bahama Islands by Monday morning. The long range models
are also showing Maria to move northwest near the Bahama Islands
early to middle of next week. However...the error on the position
of tropical systems this far out is more than 300 miles. Florida
residents and visitors need to continue to monitor the latest
forecast from the National Hurricane Center on Tropical Storm
Maria through the weekend and into early next week.

our local mets talk about all three of them that are out there right now, sure nothing is meant by them telling the public about it just part of the job we are even hearing about Nate and I live in NC

[HurricaneWarning92]

Shes very disorganized... the LLC is on the far left of the loop at 13N 50W, racing westwards...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-rgb.html

[clfenwi]

06Z GFDL final point. Final point is east of the Bahamas, latitude of Boca Raton or thereabouts.

HOUR: .0 LONG: -47.25 LAT: 13.07 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.86 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.09
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -49.11 LAT: 13.15 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.65 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.23
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -50.92 LAT: 13.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.94 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.75
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -52.57 LAT: 13.46 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.80 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.07
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -54.34 LAT: 13.83 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.02 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.22
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -56.44 LAT: 14.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.89 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.85
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -58.47 LAT: 14.83 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.21 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.15
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -59.84 LAT: 15.52 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.55 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.68
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -61.45 LAT: 16.31 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.81 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.03
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -62.84 LAT: 17.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.72 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.24
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -64.23 LAT: 18.17 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 62.89
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -65.58 LAT: 18.63 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.59 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.70
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -66.76 LAT: 19.32 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.74 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.86
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -68.15 LAT: 20.44 MIN PRESS (hPa): 986.22 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 66.12
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -69.48 LAT: 21.03 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.83 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 61.69
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -70.53 LAT: 21.76 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.48 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 65.83
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -71.82 LAT: 22.62 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.16 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 74.82
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -72.91 LAT: 23.42 MIN PRESS (hPa): 976.41 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.21
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -73.93 LAT: 24.01 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.42 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 92.18
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -74.61 LAT: 24.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.23 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 87.60
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -75.21 LAT: 25.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.67 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 93.65
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -75.76 LAT: 26.19 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.49 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 94.12



Loop

[cycloneye]

There she is.

[RL3AO]

Pro mets, if the LL flow stays too much for it, any chance it fails to gain latitude and enters the Caribbean south of 18N or so where it doesn't get tangled up in the Virgin Islands/PR/Hisp.?

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 081207
TCUAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE...ST BARTHELEMY AND ST MARTEEN.


$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[AJC3]

Pro mets, if the LL flow stays too much for it, any chance it fails to gain latitude and enters the Caribbean south of 18N or so where it doesn't get tangled up in the Virgin Islands/PR/Hisp.?

Looking at the simple BAM (Shallow versus Deep layer - also a good "poor man's shear forecast") it could go several degrees farther south, but would have to do so as an open wave or weak quasi-naked swirl. It looks for all the world that Maria is about to get a visit from Deforest Kelley. The big question is what kind of a comeback (if any) could it eventually make if it is, in fact, sent more westward in a vastly weakened state.

[northjaxpro]

Maria is just an absolute mess this morning. The naked low level swirl is well removed to the west of the convection.

The system will struggle to get stacked again in the short term for sure!

[Gustywind]

08/1145 UTC 13.0N 50.0W T2.0/2.5 MARIA
08/0615 UTC 13.4N 47.9W T2.5/2.5 MARIA

[Frank2]

Per the 8 a.m. intermediate advisory:

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT MARIA COULD BE DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE MARIA LATE TODAY.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 14, 2011090812, , BEST, 0, 130N, 502W, 40, 1005, TS