ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[BigA]

06Z HWRF also somewhat different. Takes it farther north (to 25 north), then stalls it, unlike the previous runs, which moved it west. This plus the GFS and CMC hints to me that a lot of the models see Nate approaching a tipping point in the GOM in a few days where slight differences in synoptic flow could send him NE or W.

[clfenwi]

06Z HWRF ... final position is in the middle of the western Gulf of Mexico. Graphics in a little bit.

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM NATE 15L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 8

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -92.30 LAT: 20.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -92.10 LAT: 20.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -92.20 LAT: 20.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -92.00 LAT: 21.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -92.20 LAT: 21.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -92.40 LAT: 21.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -92.10 LAT: 21.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -92.00 LAT: 22.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -92.00 LAT: 22.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -91.80 LAT: 22.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -91.70 LAT: 23.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 972.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -91.70 LAT: 23.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 79.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -92.00 LAT: 23.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 956.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -92.00 LAT: 24.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 955.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 90.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -92.20 LAT: 24.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 952.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -92.40 LAT: 24.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 953.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 93.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -92.50 LAT: 24.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 951.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 90.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -92.40 LAT: 24.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 955.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -92.40 LAT: 24.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 955.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 82.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -92.40 LAT: 24.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -92.50 LAT: 24.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -92.50 LAT: 24.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 969.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.



Loop

(edited to add graphic and link)

[meriland23]

If this does not scare ALL of florida, I don't know what could.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS from FSU - pretty dramatic.

[Nightwatch]

Cant remember when I saw so much different models lol
Crazy to see where Nate ends up finally

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
700 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2011

...NATE MEANDERING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 92.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST. NATE IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 1 MPH...2 KM/H. AN ERRATIC
EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE...TABASCO...AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
THE WARNING AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[clfenwi]

06Z GFDL. Final point is off the Louisiana coast (New Iberia)

HOUR: .0 LONG: -92.26 LAT: 20.51 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.48 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.08
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -92.04 LAT: 20.51 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.69 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.60
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -91.73 LAT: 20.59 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.12 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.62
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -91.33 LAT: 20.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.36 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.06
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -91.42 LAT: 21.07 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.79
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -91.46 LAT: 21.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.84 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.97
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -91.37 LAT: 21.51 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.32 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.23
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -91.28 LAT: 21.87 MIN PRESS (hPa): 986.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.38
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -91.31 LAT: 22.31 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.91 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.46
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -91.39 LAT: 22.95 MIN PRESS (hPa): 975.50 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.31
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -91.37 LAT: 23.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 972.45 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.08
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -91.49 LAT: 24.14 MIN PRESS (hPa): 969.78 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.70
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -91.82 LAT: 24.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 969.48 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 83.77
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -91.97 LAT: 25.01 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.67 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 84.97
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -92.19 LAT: 25.62 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.37 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 84.22
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -92.37 LAT: 25.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.51 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.94
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -92.32 LAT: 25.81 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.39 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 87.32
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -92.01 LAT: 26.27 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.87
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -91.87 LAT: 26.91 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.20 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 84.98
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -91.85 LAT: 27.48 MIN PRESS (hPa): 959.72 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 94.12
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -91.90 LAT: 28.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 960.23 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 91.98
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -91.90 LAT: 28.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 958.75 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):100.13



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Loop

(edited to add graphics)

[GCANE]

850mb 06Z GFS

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=09%2F08%2F2011+06UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=850_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

[Dean4Storms]

Not liking that 06z GFS run at all.

[Sabanic]

Not liking that 06z GFS run at all.

You & me both Brother . . .

[jhpigott]

Florida looks to be the meat in a tropical weather sandwich in this new run of the GFS

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Bluefrog]

Holy crap ... me either ..... ohhh nooo. Are models now shifting north?

[GCANE]

Going to track over the Loop-Current Eddy and shear forecast is pretty much good until the coast.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2011AL15/OHCNFCST/2011AL15_OHCNFCST_201109080600.GIF

http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfs/current/atl_shear.html

[northjaxpro]

Not liking that 06z GFS run at all.

GFS on this run now is bringing Nate N/NNE to the Northern Gulf Coast with landfall near Mobile, then drifts the system eastward right along the coast of the Florida Panhandle. That would be an interesting track should this actually come to fruition.

[wxman57]

Cant remember when I saw so much different models lol
Crazy to see where Nate ends up finally

Yeah, not since.... Lee - just last week. I wouldn't put too much into one model run of the GFS.

[AJC3]

:( Holy crap ... me either ..... ohhh nooo. Are models now shifting north?

Before you or anyone else starts worrying prematurely...remember, this is just one INTERMEDIATE run of the GFS, and intermediates are well known for thrown some whacky solutions out there. This run (in its handling of both Nate and Maria) is pretty similar to the 07/00Z ECM run, and I pretty much dismissed that outlier run WED morning.

Sure, we'll need to watch the trends from here on out (don't we always?), but don't get too worked up just yet.

[Bad_Hurricane]

He who laughs last, laughs the hardest
-EURO-

[Cranica]

Is that sort of insanely deep cold front normal for this time of year? I'm in Florida and it feels like late October here, but maybe I just haven't paid attention in previous years.

[caneman]

He who laughs last, laughs the hardest
-EURO-

He who laughs last, laughs the hardest
-EURO-

LMAO. Euro had it in the Panhandle and then flipped to the GFS position. Hardly a vote of confidence for the Euro. Euro has been all over the place this year.

[burasgal01]

Enjoy while it lasts.