ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[clfenwi]

Is that sort of insanely deep cold front normal for this time of year? I'm in Florida and it feels like late October here, but maybe I just haven't paid attention in previous years.

OT, but I'll note that record low temperatures along I-10 this morning. Pensacola and Jacksonville broke records with 59 and 61, while Tallahassee tied a record with 60.

[jdray]

Is that sort of insanely deep cold front normal for this time of year? I'm in Florida and it feels like late October here, but maybe I just haven't paid attention in previous years.

It does feel like late October, the fronts are pushing far south for this time of year.

[GCANE]

Looks like 3 Overshooting Tops fired in the last few frames very close to the LLC.


http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satellite/custom/index.htm?satellite=GOES-E+CONUS&type=Animation&numframes=6&width=1000&height=800&info=vis&zoom=1&palette=ir.pal&quality=100&map=standard&mapcolor=black&lat=19.5&lon=-94

[ROCK]

He who laughs last, laughs the hardest
-EURO-

He who laughs last, laughs the hardest
-EURO-

LMAO. Euro had it in the Panhandle and then flipped to the GFS position. Hardly a vote of confidence for the Euro. Euro has been all over the place this year.

some interesting runs as we had consensus for about what a day then we are back to not having consensus.... fun times......IMO, hard to go against the MX scenario but if it could throw a few rain clouds this way it would be nice....

[Air Force Met]

Cant remember when I saw so much different models lol
Crazy to see where Nate ends up finally

Yeah, not since.... Lee - just last week. I wouldn't put too much into one model run of the GFS.

Yep...we tend to have short memories. With Lee there was a 120 degree difference between the global tracks with both of the main players changing sides during a 12 hour period...

Same thing is happening here.

[N2Storms]

[quote="ROCK"][quote="caneman"][quote="Bad_Hurricane"]He who laughs last, laughs the hardest
-[i]EURO[/i]-[/quote][quote="Bad_Hurricane"]He who laughs last, laughs the hardest
-[i]EURO[/i]-[/quote]

LMAO. Euro had it in the Panhandle and then flipped to the GFS position. Hardly a vote of confidence for the Euro. Euro has been all over the place this year.[/quote]


some interesting runs as we had consensus for about what a day then we are back to not having consensus.... fun times......IMO, hard to go against the MX scenario but if it could throw a few rain clouds this way it would be nice....[/quote]


IMO, when it's all said and done, Nate will end up getting pushed into Mexico. These latest runs are fascinating and are entertaining but IMHO, they had it right yesterday afternoon.

[jes]

What are the models saying about intensity at landfall.

[Ivanhater]

Now we have the GFS, Canadian, GFDL and HWRF moving this north toward the Gulf coast. BTW, the Euro last night was very close to getting picked up as well. The 12z package could be totally different and change back to Mexico, but if it does not then this could be very concerning.

[TYNI]

What are the models saying about intensity at landfall.

GFDL just over 100KTS - checking on the rest...

[Ivanhater]

Big shift overnight

[clfenwi]

A look at Nate this morning.

[northtxboy]

The models turning to the North does not. shock me at all. The trough will leave a weakness to Nates north so it is possible that I can do that but it is unlikely to get very strong due to extremely dry air to its northwest, caused by upper convergence on the back side of ex-Lee's upper trough. But who knows what will happen. Just have to watch and see.

[Ivanhater]

Just hoW much latitude he gains today is going to be important. If he gets far enough north, he will position himself to get caught up in the flow from the SW.

[caneman]

some interesting runs as we had consensus for about what a day then we are back to not having consensus.... fun times......IMO, hard to go against the MX scenario but if it could throw a few rain clouds this way it would be nice....

IMO, when it's all said and done, Nate will end up getting pushed into Mexico. These latest runs are fascinating and are entertaining but IMHO, they had it right yesterday afternoon.

Hope Texas gets some rain soon. My B.I.L. lives in the Bastrop (sp.) and had to evacuate.

edit by tolakram: fix quotes

[Weatherboy1]

Florida looks to be the meat in a tropical weather sandwich in this new run of the GFS

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

That's crazy! Good news for those of us in peninsular Florida because we could get missed twice -- once to the East and once to the West. But certainly not good overall for someone in the Gulf. Maria clearly looking like a sheared "swirl" this morning, which tends to make me thing she'll come further west than some of the models were suggesting earlier. We'll see!

[GCANE]

The last OT burst is now building a higher altitude CDO.

Good timing, solar heating of the cirrus should get the core temp profile up around 12km.

Most recent AMSU sounding, late yesterday, had it about 10km.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmsrbdc&storm_identifier=AL152011&starting_image=2011AL15_4KMSRBDC_201109080845.jpg


http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satellite/custom/index.htm?satellite=GOES-E+CONUS&type=Animation&numframes=10&width=1000&height=800&info=vis&zoom=1&palette=ir.pal&quality=100&map=standard&mapcolor=black&lat=19.5&lon=-94

[PTrackerLA]

Interesting change in models, let's see if it's a fluke or a trend with this afternoon's runs.

[Volusia Mike]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif[/quote]
OK, somebody help me out here please. Using the WV loop posted by GCANE, how would Nate move to the NW through that dry air?

[MGC]

I can believe the shift....still don't understand the NHC track into the Mexican ridge....MGC

[GCANE]

Green bursts on Funktop showing the OTs as cold tops.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ft.html