ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

It's just the 6Z GFS, and the GFDL that uses the GFS to initialize it. I don't buy the northern Gulf coast hit.

[wxman57]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif
OK, somebody help me out here please. Using the WV loop posted by GCANE, how would Nate move to the NW through that dry air?

It isn't - not for a day or two.

[drezee]

It's just the 6Z GFS, and the GFDL that uses the GFS to initialize it. I don't buy the northern Gulf coast hit.

Thanks for the sanity check 57...once I saw the consecutive Euro runs, I gave the all clear to the my friends in Biloxi...I would have egg on my face...

[South Texas Storms]

It's just the 6Z GFS, and the GFDL that uses the GFS to initialize it. I don't buy the northern Gulf coast hit.

I agree wxman. You thinking a northern MX hit?

[Ivanhater]

Visible loop

[FireRat]

Is that sort of insanely deep cold front normal for this time of year? I'm in Florida and it feels like late October here, but maybe I just haven't paid attention in previous years.

OT, but I'll note that record low temperatures along I-10 this morning. Pensacola and Jacksonville broke records with 59 and 61, while Tallahassee tied a record with 60.

Not here in South Florida, the typical sauna-like weather continues....can I borrow some of you October weather?

[HurricaneBelle]

Is that sort of insanely deep cold front normal for this time of year? I'm in Florida and it feels like late October here, but maybe I just haven't paid attention in previous years.

OT, but I'll note that record low temperatures along I-10 this morning. Pensacola and Jacksonville broke records with 59 and 61, while Tallahassee tied a record with 60.

Not here in South Florida, the typical sauna-like weather continues....can I borrow some of you October weather?

The boundary is just south of the Tampa Bay area, beautiful morning here with DPs in the mid 60s and temps in the mid 70s. But I see Sarasota and points south have a 73+ DP.

[Stormcenter]

Yawn......is what I say after seeing those latest model runs from the GFS and others. I didn't buy it when the EURO showed it several days ago. JMHO

[Ivanhater]

12z early guidance. The NHC will certainly move the track north imo.

[MWatkins]

I find it VERY interesting how some people interpret what they want from the models to fit their existing ideas on a system. And, it doesn't seem to matter if it's a amateur or a pro, apparently no one is immune to it.

Almost all of the 18z ensembles showed something similar to the 6Z run. Does it mean the 6Z solution is going to happen? No.

Does it mean there could be a change in the trend coming? Maybe. Will be interesting to see how the hurricane specialists address this in the upcoming discussion/forecast.

MW

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2011

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED
TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN WAS SEEN LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NATE HAS
THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE CENTER
LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 45 KT...BASED ON A SHIP OBSERVATION
OF 40 KT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND RECENT STRONGER WIND
REPORTS FROM ELEVATED PEMEX OIL RIGS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE NATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.

NATE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVERNIGHT OR THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS
A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING PATTERN BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGES OVER
MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. IN A
DAY OR SO...NATE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE. AFTER 36-48 HOURS...THE
MODEL SPREAD BECOMES INCREASINGLY LARGE...AS SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST GFS AND
GFDL MODELS...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH...MOVE NATE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS
MODELS DEPICT A WEAKER TROUGH THAT DOES NOT CAPTURE NATE AND ALLOWS
IT TURN TURN WESTWARD TOWARD MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AND LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO VIABLE
SCENARIOS BUT HAS NOT BEEN SHIFTED AS FAR AS THE TVCA CONSENSUS.
THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO PERFORM A SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY HELP REDUCE
THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

NATE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND ALONG WITH DRIER LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR...IS FORECAST TO
SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 20.0N 92.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 20.4N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 21.0N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 21.8N 92.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 22.5N 93.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 23.1N 93.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 23.6N 94.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 24.0N 95.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

From 11 AM discussion.

THE LATEST GFS AND
GFDL MODELS...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH...MOVE NATE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS
MODELS DEPICT A WEAKER TROUGH THAT DOES NOT CAPTURE NATE AND ALLOWS
IT TURN TURN WESTWARD TOWARD MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AND LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO VIABLE
SCENARIOS BUT HAS NOT BEEN SHIFTED AS FAR AS THE TVCA CONSENSUS.
THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO PERFORM A SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY HELP REDUCE
THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

[Ivanhater]

Very good discussion from the NHC about the split in the models

AFTER 36-48 HOURS...THE
MODEL SPREAD BECOMES INCREASINGLY LARGE...AS SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST GFS AND
GFDL MODELS...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH...MOVE NATE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS
MODELS DEPICT A WEAKER TROUGH THAT DOES NOT CAPTURE NATE AND ALLOWS
IT TURN TURN WESTWARD TOWARD MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

[HurricaneBelle]

The new NHC track for Nate (heading for Brownsville) looks like one of those compromise tracks which has little chance of verifying, since they're torn between the models taking it to the N Gulf coast and those burying it in Mexico. They almost admit as such in the discussion.

[Stormcenter]

I don't think conditions would be ideal if somehow Nate were to end up in the Northern GOM. Lots and lots of nice dry air that's not going anywhere fast and some nice shear to boot. IMO

[lonelymike]

Looks like the models are having trouble with the steering currents. A G-4 mission should clear up the confusion. Most of the model guidance is still in the Western Gulf. Historically and Climatology still favors a northern MX hit.

[Ivanhater]

I don't think conditions would be ideal if somehow Nate were to end up in the Northern GOM. Lots and lots of nice dry air that's not going anywhere fast and some nice shear to boot. IMO

What is interesting is all the models that have and are showing a northern gulf hit strenghten the system

[Ivanhater]

:uarrow:
Looks like the models are having trouble with the steering currents. A G-4 mission should clear up the confusion. Most of the model guidance is still in the Western Gulf. Historically and Climatology still favors a northern MX hit.

Cimo model shows a northern gulf solution. Historical map

[rockyman]

Looking at that climo map, I would be interested to know which of the northern Gomex system ORIGINATED in the BOC vs. the Caribbean or Atlantic.

[Dave]

AF300 takeoff & enroute to Nate...

667
URNT15 KNHC 081505
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 01 20110908
145530 3024N 08856W 0168 ///// 0143 +245 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
145600 3024N 08856W 0167 ///// 0141 +254 +252 360000 000 /// /// 23
145630 3024N 08856W 0165 ///// 0141 +263 +252 360000 000 /// /// 23
145700 3024N 08856W 0166 ///// 0142 +246 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
145730 3024N 08856W 0166 ///// 0142 +233 //// 016001 004 /// /// 25
145800 3025N 08855W 0175 ///// //// +213 //// 021005 009 /// /// 25
145830 3026N 08855W 9964 00161 //// +199 //// 021005 006 /// /// 05
145900 3027N 08853W 9741 00347 //// +182 //// 027006 007 /// /// 05
145930 3027N 08852W 9280 00782 //// +152 //// 025008 009 /// /// 05
150000 3026N 08851W 8995 01052 //// +125 //// 022011 012 /// /// 05
150030 3025N 08852W 8708 01309 //// +103 //// 031015 016 /// /// 05
150100 3023N 08853W 8345 01669 //// +109 //// 001014 017 /// /// 05
150130 3022N 08854W 8028 01994 //// +129 //// 337017 018 /// /// 05
150200 3020N 08856W 7779 02264 //// +123 //// 336017 019 /// /// 05
150230 3019N 08857W 7526 02535 //// +107 //// 327016 019 /// /// 05
150300 3018N 08858W 7288 02805 //// +091 //// 328016 017 /// /// 05
150330 3016N 08900W 7097 03025 //// +077 //// 332016 016 /// /// 05
150400 3015N 08901W 6901 03258 //// +062 //// 329017 018 /// /// 05
150430 3014N 08902W 6703 03503 //// +048 //// 322017 019 /// /// 05
150500 3012N 08904W 6500 03754 //// +037 //// 314015 016 /// /// 05
$$
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