ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

TPC did mention that we maybe tracking an open wave very soon.

So as i have mentioned, that is about the only way it can impact the United States...it would have to start a recurve track south of Cuba or in the Western Caribbean...waiting for development until the Central/Western Caribbean...(ala Fay).

Then again, it may never redevelop again.....

[Fego]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-rgb.htm
This loop shows cristal clear whats going on with the llc. My guess is that Maria must "reborn" from there.

[meriland23]

nhc update will be interesting to say the least

[cycloneye]

Real off-topic= Breaking news at Talking Tropics forum regarding the status of ENSO. Find out what it is going to the ENSO thread there. viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&p=2191022#p2191022

[CrazyC83]

The central Caribbean looks prime but the eastern Caribbean still has fairly high shear.

[Aric Dunn]

TPC did mention that we maybe tracking an open wave very soon.

So as i have mentioned, that is about the only way it can impact the United States...it would have to start a recurve track south of Cuba or in the Western Caribbean...waiting for development until the Central/Western Caribbean...(ala Fay)

I dissagree. with each model run the ridging over the bahamas and sw of bermuda has been stronger with more flow.

12Z NAM now showing even more ridging and flow around it. Also almost all the models have now retrograded the cut off low farther west which not only opens the east coast up but also similar runs to the early EURO runs which orginally showed the cut off low farther west... and those runs had it move into the NW carrib. I dont think it will get that far west but there is definitely the possibility of either scenario still especially given the present trend....

Also if I recall correctly the first few runs of the Euro had it riding between 12 and 14 N all the way to the islands before bending to the wnw .... right now thats what it is doing.


12z NAM ...
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011

...MARIA MOVING WESTWARD IN A HURRY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 51.2W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST.MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...AND SAINT KITTS.
* ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...GUADELOUPE...AND MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA.
* ST.MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL BE NEAR THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY AND MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MARIA COULD BE DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS
TIME...AND AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE SYSTEM
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...EVEN IF MARIA BECOMES A TROPICAL WAVE LATER
TODAY...THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF REGENERATION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011

MARIA IS MOVING VERY FAST...AT ABOUT 19-22 KNOTS...AND PROBABLY NO
LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WILL CHECK IF THAT IS THE CASE LATER TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AND
CONSISTS OF A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL SWIRL WITH SOME PATCHES OF DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE RAINBANDS ARE STILL 40 KNOTS AND THIS
IS THE INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...EVEN IF MARIA DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL
WAVE...CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
REGENERATE AS IT SLOWS DOWN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NOT AS
HOSTILE AS THEY WERE INDICATING IN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW AN AGGRESSIVE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN.

MARIA IS SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT AND LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS
FOR A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.
AFTER THAT...A WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
ALLOW A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE CLUSTERED HAVING MARIA OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS IN FIVE DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 13.0N 51.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 13.0N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 13.8N 57.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 14.5N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 16.0N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 19.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 22.5N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 25.0N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

11 AM advisory excerpt:

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL BE NEAR THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY AND MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MARIA COULD BE DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS
TIME...AND AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE SYSTEM
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...EVEN IF MARIA BECOMES A TROPICAL WAVE LATER
TODAY...THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF REGENERATION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[clfenwi]

[Also if I recall correctly the first few runs of the Euro had it riding between 12 and 14 N all the way to the islands before bending to the wnw .... right now thats what it is doing.

Yep, the Euro's first forecast, 48 hours ago synoptically gave a 12Z position of 11.3N 47.3W. Second forecast, 36 hours back
was 12.5N 49.6.W Compare to best track of 13.0 50.2W.

Among more recent models NOGAPS has come closest to getting the rapid motion right. It's 24h forecast for 12Z this morning was
13.5N 50.1W with 12hr forecast of 13.0N 50.3W. The other globals were a degree behind on their 24h forecast and ~0.5 behind on their 12h.

[HurricaneBelle]

The NHC track has moved left with this advisory, with the 5-day position at 25/75 in the Central Bahamas.

[Gustywind]

Hope my eyes are deceiving me or our daily newspaper is seeing things we have not see for the moement... especially concerning the sustained winds expected (105km/H !). That means a strong TS and not a weak TS?! So, we should continue to follow very closely TS Maria. Unhopefully this article is inacessible (you must be a suscriber or wait the day after to have access to the full article). Let's wait and see.

Here is a snippet of the thread of the day
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... tilles.fr/ (you can see the thread intituled: METEO. Watch Maria!

METEO. Watch Maria!

The storm tropical Maria will pass very close to us Friday night. His crossing of the Lesser Antilles should be accompanied by average winds up to 105 km/h . Guadeloupe was placed in yellow vigilance.

[gatorcane]

Avila's discussion was succint as usual. No mention of the west shift by HWRF or GFS...Avila seems to suggest a consensus east of Florida....

I do find Avila to be quite conservative in his discussions though.

[Aric Dunn]

12z NAM complete ... showing a stronger ridge again.... extrapolating the motion of the ridging and MAria looks like NAM would begin to turn somewhere near the central Bahamas.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[bg1]

11 AM advisory excerpt:

MARIA COULD BE DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS
TIME...AND AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE SYSTEM
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...EVEN IF MARIA BECOMES A TROPICAL WAVE LATER
TODAY...THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF REGENERATION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Wow... near the peak of the season and there's a storm spontaneously degenerating in the open Atlantic. This goes to show you warm SSTs aren't everything, but apparantly something has to be favorable for it to regenerate.

I wouldn't write this storm off totally, though, after seeing the revised track.

[CrazyC83]

If it stays weak, I think it could just ride the Caribbean.

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 081443
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011

...MARIA MOVING WESTWARD IN A HURRY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 51.2W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST.MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...AND SAINT KITTS.
* ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...GUADELOUPE...AND MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA.
* ST.MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

[cycloneye]

Big change in track that now moves it over PR.

[gatorcane]

That is a strange wiggly track above, but it has shifted west.....

I agree models are trending west but how far west will they go?

[Blown Away]

NHC 11am disco is setting Maria up for the kill!

[sandyb]

wow has anyone seen the last update from the weather channel the cone has dropped way south headed towards Fla I think they were showing the new 11:00 update cone