ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[vbhoutex]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

OK, somebody help me out here please. Using the WV loop posted by GCANE, how would Nate move to the NW through that dry air?[/quote]
It is quite improbable that he would. From looking at that loop, it appears to me that he may begin to eat dry air today and may not even ramp up like originally thought. JMHO though without a lot more research.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Stormcenter]

It doesn't happen as often as some may think. Opal is the only "significant" storm that I can think
of off the top of my head. IMO

Looking at that climo map, I would be interested to know which of the northern Gomex system ORIGINATED in the BOC vs. the Caribbean or Atlantic.

[caneseddy]

It doesn't happen as often as some may think. Opal is the only "significant" storm that I can think
of off the top of my head. IMO

Looking at that climo map, I would be interested to know which of the northern Gomex system ORIGINATED in the BOC vs. the Caribbean or Atlantic.

Actually Opal originally formed in the Caribbean as A TD...it just did not get named until the BOC..but of course it all depends on your interpretation of origin of a storm

[psyclone]

The new NHC track for Nate (heading for Brownsville) looks like one of those compromise tracks which has little chance of verifying, since they're torn between the models taking it to the N Gulf coast and those burying it in Mexico. They almost admit as such in the discussion.

that's a terrific point. the nhc won't windshield wiper their track wildly from run to run. if the the models radically change and persist with that change the nhc will gradually work that in over several forecast cycles. (remember Katrina aiming for apalachicola?). the northerly shift indicates they are giving at least some credence to a more northerly solution but they aren't sold yet. and that makes sense. there's time to adjust should the need arise. i'm still in the mexico camp at this point but certainly intrigued by the alternatives.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Dave]

652
URNT15 KNHC 081515
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 02 20110908
150530 3011N 08905W 6339 03955 //// +035 //// 300017 018 /// /// 05
150600 3009N 08907W 6187 04156 0088 +030 +010 298017 018 /// /// 03
150630 3008N 08908W 6034 04359 0073 +025 -051 285017 017 /// /// 03
150700 3007N 08910W 5891 04532 0058 +014 -094 285018 020 /// /// 03
150730 3005N 08911W 5764 04706 0058 +004 -136 284016 017 /// /// 03
150800 3004N 08913W 5661 04843 0042 -004 -153 276017 018 /// /// 03
150830 3002N 08914W 5543 05020 0042 -009 -188 267019 019 /// /// 03
150900 3001N 08916W 5433 05189 0236 -016 -211 274018 018 /// /// 03
150930 2959N 08917W 5344 05322 0245 -024 -158 274018 019 /// /// 03
151000 2958N 08919W 5239 05482 0256 -031 -147 274020 021 /// /// 03
151030 2956N 08920W 5140 05635 0265 -045 -151 273021 022 /// /// 03
151100 2955N 08922W 5048 05778 0274 -056 -157 267021 021 /// /// 03
151130 2953N 08923W 4948 05917 0268 -066 -173 257021 021 /// /// 03
151200 2952N 08924W 4847 06082 0282 -079 -183 257020 020 /// /// 03
151230 2951N 08926W 4767 06202 0285 -090 -182 267021 021 /// /// 03
151300 2949N 08927W 4694 06314 0289 -099 -184 278023 024 /// /// 03
151330 2948N 08929W 4622 06433 0297 -105 -194 277026 027 /// /// 03
151400 2946N 08930W 4548 06571 0306 -110 -216 277028 028 /// /// 03
151430 2945N 08932W 4481 06689 0316 -119 -228 275028 028 /// /// 03
151500 2943N 08933W 4416 06802 0323 -129 -235 275028 029 /// /// 03
$$
;

[petit_bois]

The new NHC track for Nate (heading for Brownsville) looks like one of those compromise tracks which has little chance of verifying, since they're torn between the models taking it to the N Gulf coast and those burying it in Mexico. They almost admit as such in the discussion.

I was thinking the same thing...
Basicly the models have a 180 degree split... it CAN'T go the central TX so splitting the difference is a percarious position the NHC takes. Not wanting to show Tampico and not wanting to show NGOM.
The 5pm update will be VERY interesting. They will have additional model runs and recon data.

[Dave]

[petit_bois]

Are they leaving from Keesler?

I see now... yes they are.

[clfenwi]

Are they leaving from Keesler?

Yep, and they took off a bit ahead of schedule.

[Dave]

355
URNT15 KNHC 081525
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 03 20110908
151530 2942N 08935W 4355 06913 0336 -137 -235 274029 030 /// /// 03
151600 2941N 08936W 4294 06987 0323 -145 -241 267028 028 /// /// 03
151630 2939N 08937W 4239 07113 0339 -149 -249 262024 025 /// /// 03
151700 2938N 08939W 4193 07199 0350 -154 -254 265023 023 /// /// 03
151730 2936N 08940W 4144 07288 0353 -163 -259 264023 024 /// /// 03
151800 2935N 08942W 4092 07382 0350 -170 -269 261024 024 /// /// 03
151830 2934N 08943W 4044 07455 0350 -175 -281 260023 023 /// /// 03
151900 2932N 08945W 3998 07530 0375 -180 -307 262023 024 /// /// 03
151930 2931N 08946W 3963 07631 0361 -184 -316 268023 023 /// /// 03
152000 2929N 08948W 3930 07672 0367 -188 -333 273024 024 /// /// 03
152030 2928N 08949W 3919 07706 0369 -190 -340 271024 024 /// /// 03
152100 2926N 08951W 3923 07702 0380 -190 -337 272024 024 /// /// 03
152130 2924N 08952W 3923 07706 0384 -190 -321 273025 025 /// /// 03
152200 2923N 08954W 3923 07705 0385 -193 -297 270024 025 /// /// 03
152230 2921N 08956W 3923 07702 0385 -195 -291 268024 024 /// /// 03
152300 2919N 08958W 3923 07701 0378 -195 -292 269024 024 /// /// 03
152330 2917N 08959W 3923 07708 0381 -195 -295 267024 024 /// /// 03
152400 2916N 09001W 3925 07699 0381 -195 -303 265024 025 /// /// 03
152430 2914N 09003W 3924 07703 0381 -195 -313 264025 025 /// /// 03
152500 2912N 09005W 3926 07685 0367 -195 -312 264024 024 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Stormhunter27]

that's a terrific point. the nhc won't windshield wiper their track wildly from run to run. if the the models radically change and persist with that change the nhc will gradually work that in over several forecast cycles. (remember Katrina aiming for apalachicola?). the northerly shift indicates they are giving at least some credence to a more northerly solution but they aren't sold yet.

I think that's exactly what they're doing. I've talked to Jack Beven about this and he told me that if there's a significant change in the models (which does happen) they shift the track slowly but steadily towards the favoured solution. Huge swings in their track guidance would cause them to lose a lot of credibility. Even if the interm extrapolated landfall doesn't make sense, they still have to shift it through the intermediate points.

I think Nate is going to be an interesting case study in the long run. I don't have much to add to what everyone else has been saying atm so I'll go back to lurking...

[Jevo]

12z GFS Initalized

[Dave]

Someone sort of watch for the recon mission to Maria in an hour or so. I saw two flights from Keesler to St Croix this morning so they'll take off from the island. Take off lately has been running a little earlier than the tcpod.

[Dave]

[MississippiWx]

The only way Nate is headed for Mexico is if it goes southwest. It doesn't make sense for a storm to head due west into Mexico with the Texas ridge displaced to the south. The Texas ridge won't be able to migrate back over Texas with the upper trough sitting over the Central part of the country. Also, a ridge that is building in from Florida should impart a fairly strong southerly flow over Nate. I'm against a due west track into Mexico and fairly split between a northward track to the US or a SW track into Mexico. If I had to choose one or the other, it would be the northward track as it just makes the most sense. We'll see.

[Dave]

068
URNT15 KNHC 081535
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 04 20110908
152530 2910N 09006W 3922 07683 0364 -195 -306 262025 025 /// /// 03
152600 2907N 09006W 3929 07694 0383 -194 -310 264025 026 /// /// 03
152630 2905N 09006W 3926 07703 0386 -190 -314 269025 025 /// /// 03
152700 2902N 09006W 3925 07705 0389 -190 -321 270024 024 /// /// 03
152730 2900N 09006W 3927 07703 0389 -190 -321 269023 023 /// /// 03
152800 2857N 09006W 3927 07701 0389 -190 -321 271023 023 /// /// 03
152830 2855N 09005W 3926 07704 0388 -189 -324 272022 023 000 000 00
152900 2852N 09005W 3921 07707 0389 -189 -324 271022 022 000 000 00
152930 2849N 09005W 3929 07701 0389 -189 -324 272021 022 000 000 00
153000 2847N 09005W 3926 07703 0390 -190 -326 275022 022 000 000 00
153030 2844N 09005W 3927 07702 0391 -189 -324 275021 021 002 000 00
153100 2842N 09005W 3922 07708 0388 -190 -328 274020 020 001 000 00
153130 2839N 09005W 3930 07701 0390 -190 -327 276020 021 002 001 03
153200 2836N 09004W 3922 07714 0392 -190 -323 278021 021 002 000 03
153230 2834N 09004W 3929 07694 0390 -190 -320 276021 021 002 000 00
153300 2831N 09004W 3922 07713 0393 -190 -323 277021 021 001 000 00
153330 2828N 09004W 3922 07707 0384 -190 -330 280020 021 001 000 00
153400 2826N 09004W 3929 07698 0386 -190 -326 279020 020 000 001 03
153430 2823N 09004W 3920 07718 0386 -190 -324 277018 019 000 002 03
153500 2821N 09004W 3927 07709 0394 -190 -316 272018 018 000 000 00
$$
;

[petit_bois]

Looking more and more likely Joe B had this one pegged right yesterday...

[chrisnnavarre]

It's just the 6Z GFS, and the GFDL that uses the GFS to initialize it. I don't buy the northern Gulf coast hit.

Can you explain why the storm would charge head long into a ridge over Mexico? I mean I know it says south of a building ridge but if this stacks at all within the next 24 hours, I'd have to say it would probably feel some influence of the trough to the north. Even if it moves at least a little to the north it ain't going west towards Texas with the death ridge in place, and I don't think there would be anything that would suck it back down south towards Mexico, so it would have to go somewhere. Northern Gulf Coast would look to be a good solution then. I mean just saying...Opal sure did it.



THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS
MODELS DEPICT A WEAKER TROUGH THAT DOES NOT CAPTURE NATE AND ALLOWS
IT TURN TURN WESTWARD TOWARD MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING
RIDGE...

[lonelymike]

:uarrow:
Looks like the models are having trouble with the steering currents. A G-4 mission should clear up the confusion. Most of the model guidance is still in the Western Gulf. Historically and Climatology still favors a northern MX hit.

Cimo model shows a northern gulf solution. Historical map

[img]http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201115_climo.gif]

Majority show a Mx hit

[3090]

Dry air in and around Nate in the GOM is getting squeezed out. If I had to bet, I would bet the dry air will oly be around another 24hrs. or so.