ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[Jevo]

12Z gfs +24

[Dave]

[Ivanhater]

:uarrow:
Looks like the models are having trouble with the steering currents. A G-4 mission should clear up the confusion. Most of the model guidance is still in the Western Gulf. Historically and Climatology still favors a northern MX hit.

Cimo model shows a northern gulf solution. Historical map

[img]http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201115_climo.gif]

Majority show a Mx hit

Oh come on Mike, the historical map is basically split between Mexico or the northern gulf, just like the models.

[Dave]

462
URNT15 KNHC 081545
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 05 20110908
153530 2818N 09003W 3923 07715 0393 -190 -314 278018 019 001 000 00
153600 2815N 09003W 3922 07717 0394 -190 -328 280019 019 002 000 00
153630 2813N 09003W 3927 07704 0393 -190 -324 280018 019 002 000 00
153700 2810N 09003W 3923 07715 0395 -190 -321 278017 018 003 000 00
153730 2808N 09003W 3924 07714 0394 -190 -322 275016 016 002 000 00
153800 2805N 09003W 3923 07714 0395 -190 -319 275016 016 000 000 00
153830 2802N 09003W 3929 07707 0395 -190 -322 278015 015 000 000 03
153900 2800N 09002W 3919 07725 0396 -190 -319 277015 016 001 000 00
153930 2757N 09002W 3925 07712 0394 -190 -326 274014 015 001 000 00
154000 2755N 09002W 3929 07708 0396 -190 -327 271013 014 001 000 00
154030 2752N 09002W 3920 07720 0396 -190 -325 272013 013 002 000 00
154100 2749N 09002W 3929 07707 0396 -190 -329 278014 014 004 000 00
154130 2747N 09002W 3921 07721 0396 -190 -325 282014 014 005 000 00
154200 2744N 09002W 3926 07710 0396 -190 -326 282013 013 004 000 00
154230 2742N 09001W 3924 07715 0396 -190 -328 283013 013 008 000 00
154300 2739N 09001W 3923 07715 0395 -190 -327 286013 013 007 000 00
154330 2736N 09001W 3925 07713 0395 -190 -330 289013 013 006 001 00
154400 2734N 09001W 3925 07713 0396 -190 -331 292013 013 007 000 00
154430 2731N 09001W 3922 07719 0395 -190 -339 293012 012 007 000 00
154500 2728N 09001W 3926 07711 0396 -190 -356 297012 012 006 000 00
$$
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[clfenwi]

12Z GFS kind of leaning left from its 06Z run right from the start... we'll see how this runs out.

[lonelymike]

[img]http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201115_climo.gif][/quote]

Majority show a Mx hit[/quote]

Oh come on Mike, the historical map is basically split between Mexico or the northern gulf, just like the models.[/quote]


Shall we count em?

[Ivanhater]

[img]http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201115_climo.gif]

Majority show a Mx hit[/quote]

Oh come on Mike, the historical map is basically split between Mexico or the northern gulf, just like the models.[/quote]


Shall we count em? [/quote]

Break out the zoom

Climo model shows a northern gulf solution.

[Ivanhater]

Through 36 hours...looks like the same position as the 06z run but a deeper cyclone.

[Dave]

[Jevo]

12Z gfS +48

[Huckster]

I find it VERY interesting how some people interpret what they want from the models to fit their existing ideas on a system. And, it doesn't seem to matter if it's a amateur or a pro, apparently no one is immune to it.

Almost all of the 18z ensembles showed something similar to the 6Z run. Does it mean the 6Z solution is going to happen? No.

Does it mean there could be a change in the trend coming? Maybe. Will be interesting to see how the hurricane specialists address this in the upcoming discussion/forecast.

MW

MW, all I have to say is, thanks. What you said sounds almost like it could be weather scripture. I could say much more, but I'll stop with that.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS...48 hours...Trough scooping it up a tad. We will see shortly if it fully makes the connection



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[Dave]

127
URNT15 KNHC 081555
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 06 20110908
154530 2726N 09000W 3923 07717 0397 -190 -342 297012 012 010 000 00
154600 2723N 09000W 3925 07714 0397 -190 -358 290012 012 012 000 03
154630 2720N 09000W 3925 07717 0398 -187 -385 278012 012 010 000 03
154700 2718N 09000W 3925 07716 0399 -190 -388 287010 010 008 000 00
154730 2715N 09000W 3923 07720 0399 -190 -364 278010 010 010 000 00
154800 2713N 09000W 3923 07718 0399 -190 -377 285010 010 008 000 00
154830 2710N 09000W 3925 07715 0398 -189 -390 285010 011 009 000 00
154900 2707N 08959W 3923 07716 0397 -185 -387 279012 013 010 000 00
154930 2705N 08959W 3923 07717 0398 -185 -396 279013 013 009 000 00
155000 2702N 08959W 3925 07715 0398 -186 -408 284012 013 009 000 00
155030 2659N 08959W 3925 07718 0399 -190 -400 288012 013 009 000 00
155100 2657N 08959W 3923 07718 0399 -190 -383 291014 014 009 000 00
155130 2654N 08959W 3926 07713 0397 -187 -388 291014 014 009 000 00
155200 2651N 08959W 3923 07715 0396 -185 -405 286015 016 008 000 00
155230 2651N 08959W 3923 07715 0397 -185 -416 283014 015 008 000 00
155300 2646N 08958W 3923 07717 0397 -185 -421 281013 014 007 000 00
155330 2644N 08958W 3926 07712 0397 -185 -422 281013 014 010 000 00
155400 2641N 08958W 3923 07717 0398 -185 -424 281012 013 008 000 00
155430 2638N 08958W 3925 07716 0397 -185 -423 283012 012 008 000 00
155500 2636N 08958W 3924 07717 0398 -185 -418 288011 012 007 000 00
$$
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[lonelymike]

For what its worth NAM shows a W MX hit. GFS shows a hit on La/MS.

[South Texas Storms]

It's gonna be close on this run Ivan. I'm not sure if it will make the connection.

[Jevo]

12Z gfs +60 (making the connection?)

[Dave]

[SunnyThoughts]

Well it seems quite obvious, that we aren't going to know WHICH models are correct UNTIL this trough dips down and we see exactly how the system is affected by it. Until that happens ( over the weekend at some point I assume) its not set in stone either way. AS always, its a wait and see kind of thing. 2 seperate camps concerning the models...2 separate things can happen.

[Jevo]

12z GFS +78 (Gaining Lat)



12z GFS +90

[Dave]

642
URNT15 KNHC 081605
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 07 20110908
155530 2633N 08957W 3926 07712 0396 -185 -410 291012 012 006 000 00
155600 2630N 08957W 3923 07717 0397 -185 -407 292011 012 007 000 00
155630 2628N 08957W 3923 07717 0396 -185 -406 293010 011 007 000 00
155700 2625N 08957W 3925 07714 0396 -185 -408 297011 011 005 000 00
155730 2623N 08957W 3923 07716 0396 -185 -410 298011 012 006 000 00
155800 2620N 08957W 3925 07714 0396 -184 -414 300012 012 006 000 00
155830 2617N 08957W 3923 07716 0395 -185 -419 303012 012 007 000 00
155900 2615N 08956W 3923 07715 0395 -185 -420 306012 013 009 000 00
155930 2612N 08956W 3925 07714 0396 -185 -419 308013 013 011 000 00
160000 2609N 08956W 3925 07715 0397 -185 -421 308012 012 011 001 00
160030 2607N 08956W 3925 07717 0398 -185 -420 309011 012 013 000 00
160100 2604N 08956W 3923 07718 0397 -185 -419 310011 011 014 000 00
160130 2601N 08956W 3923 07717 0398 -185 -422 307010 011 015 000 00
160200 2559N 08956W 3925 07715 0398 -185 -424 309010 010 016 000 00
160230 2556N 08955W 3923 07717 0398 -185 -425 314011 011 017 000 00
160300 2553N 08955W 3924 07715 0396 -183 -426 317011 011 016 000 00
160330 2551N 08955W 3924 07714 0397 -181 -428 321010 011 015 000 00
160400 2548N 08955W 3925 07715 0398 -181 -430 325008 009 016 000 00
160430 2545N 08955W 3924 07716 0397 -181 -426 334007 008 017 000 00
160500 2543N 08955W 3923 07719 0398 -183 -416 341007 007 018 000 00
$$
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