ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Through 78 hours it gets up to 25 north, very similar to the 06z run. It would be very hard for it to turn back, should keep moving north but well see.

[Stormcenter]

It all comes down to what model's basket you want to put all of your eggs in.

[South Texas Storms]

Looks like it misses the trough on this run.

[Dave]

[robbielyn]

wouldnt maria keep it from going to far east? like la being the furthest east it could go? wht did JB say yesterday?

[Jevo]

12Z gfs +108 (looks confused as to where he wants to go)

[chrisnnavarre]

12z GFS +78 (Gaining Lat)



12z GFS +90

Like I posted earlier, if it gains latitude I don't THINK it would go back south and probably won't go west with the ridge over Texas. This could be a real concern, even more so than Lee considering time over very warm gulf waters.

[Ivanhater]

Lol, it's stalling in the central Gulf

[BigB0882]

Please let this hit TX, smack dab in the middle please!

[Jevo]

Please let this hit TX, smack dab in the middle please!

LoL get your flame suit on

[Dave]

307
URNT15 KNHC 081615
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 08 20110908
160530 2540N 08955W 3923 07718 0398 -181 -410 344007 007 020 000 00
160600 2537N 08954W 3923 07719 0399 -182 -410 347008 008 021 000 00
160630 2535N 08954W 3925 07719 0400 -182 -411 352008 008 022 000 00
160700 2532N 08954W 3925 07719 0401 -181 -411 354007 007 022 000 00
160730 2529N 08954W 3925 07722 0403 -180 -413 358008 008 022 000 00
160800 2527N 08954W 3923 07720 0401 -180 -414 001009 009 021 001 00
160830 2524N 08954W 3925 07717 0400 -180 -414 007009 009 022 000 00
160900 2521N 08953W 3925 07713 0394 -180 -417 010010 010 023 000 00
160930 2519N 08953W 3923 07709 0387 -182 -422 009009 010 023 001 00
161000 2516N 08953W 3923 07700 0382 -183 -432 012007 008 023 001 00
161030 2513N 08953W 3923 07702 0383 -184 -443 017008 008 025 001 00
161100 2511N 08953W 3923 07708 0388 -185 -445 020008 009 025 001 00
161130 2508N 08953W 3925 07710 0392 -180 -442 022008 008 023 000 00
161200 2505N 08953W 3925 07714 0396 -180 -441 029007 008 023 000 00
161230 2503N 08952W 3923 07720 0399 -180 -446 008006 007 025 000 00
161300 2500N 08952W 3924 07716 0398 -180 -454 354007 007 026 000 00
161330 2457N 08952W 3925 07718 0401 -180 -454 359006 007 026 001 00
161400 2455N 08952W 3923 07722 0401 -179 -448 346006 006 026 001 00
161430 2452N 08952W 3925 07720 0401 -176 -442 330006 006 029 000 00
161500 2449N 08952W 3924 07723 0403 -176 -438 337006 007 037 006 00
$$
;

[Ivanhater]

Can't go west with the ridge to the west, it's too far north..should continue to drift north toward Louisiana this run

[Jevo]

12z GFS +120

[GCANE]

One thing I see of note on the 12Z GFS is a TUTT forming in the Bahamas directly east of Nate.

Just about optimum position for a poleward outflow channel sink.


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=09%2F08%2F2011+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=300_wnd_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

[lonelymike]

Please let this hit TX, smack dab in the middle please!

LoL get your flame suit on

Somewhere Rock is screaming at his I-phone

[GCANE]

Scratch that, sorry its Maria.

[Ivanhater]

Still lifting north..it's gonna hit the northern gulf this run, just depends where...Houston?

[Macrocane]

It is quite improbable that he would. From looking at that loop, it appears to me that he may begin to eat dry air today and may not even ramp up like originally thought. JMHO though without a lot more research.

Looking at the WV loop, I don't see dry air entering into Nate's circulation, at least for now it is far enough from the dry air mass and it's embedded within an envelope of moisture. I may be wrong but I understand that dry air is going to be moving away from Nate's path besides Nate will be carrying with him its moisture envelope, that will happen if shear is low of course, if shear increases more than expected then the dry air will take its toll on the cyclone.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

Satellite updated...

[Jevo]

12z GFS +132 (couldnt resist)



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