ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

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#701 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 08, 2011 12:57 pm

225
URNT15 KNHC 081755
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 18 20110908
174530 2027N 09259W 9635 00378 0061 +221 //// 056036 037 034 000 01
174600 2026N 09258W 9622 00389 0061 +217 //// 055036 036 034 000 01
174630 2025N 09257W 9629 00381 0058 +220 //// 055035 036 036 000 05
174700 2024N 09256W 9634 00375 0057 +218 //// 052038 039 038 001 01
174730 2023N 09255W 9626 00381 0055 +217 //// 051037 038 037 000 01
174800 2022N 09253W 9634 00371 0052 +217 //// 054039 040 037 001 01
174830 2021N 09252W 9622 00379 0050 +217 //// 052040 041 038 000 05
174900 2020N 09251W 9634 00367 0048 +221 //// 053040 041 039 000 01
174930 2018N 09250W 9634 00368 0048 +213 //// 051040 040 037 000 01
175000 2017N 09249W 9631 00367 0045 +213 //// 053041 041 038 000 01
175030 2016N 09248W 9604 00390 0042 +212 //// 048040 041 038 002 01
175100 2015N 09247W 9594 00397 0040 +213 //// 047040 041 039 001 05
175130 2014N 09246W 9589 00399 //// +208 //// 046040 041 039 000 05
175200 2013N 09244W 9588 00397 0035 +207 //// 049041 041 040 000 05
175230 2012N 09243W 9598 00386 0032 +207 //// 050040 041 038 000 01
175300 2011N 09242W 9600 00381 0030 +206 //// 052039 039 038 001 01
175330 2010N 09241W 9597 00382 //// +203 //// 052037 038 037 000 01
175400 2009N 09240W 9598 00378 0023 +205 //// 054036 036 038 002 01
175430 2008N 09239W 9584 00388 0022 +203 //// 053035 036 037 002 01
175500 2007N 09238W 9597 00374 0020 +206 //// 054033 034 036 001 05
$$
;
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#702 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 08, 2011 12:59 pm

MGC wrote:The 11am forecast track vindicates my earlier thoughts....how is Nate going to bust through the Mexican ridge? I don't think Nate will. Nate will eventually get picked up by a trough. The more north Nate moves the greater the possibility that will get picked up. That death ridge has been around all summer and I don't see it poofing or moving a whole lot the next week. The trend is your friend. The NHC will gradually adjust the track to the right.....anyone will to take a bet?.......MGC


Of course the above rant is that of MGC and not an official forecast.


The 11am track isn't likely to verify. It's right between the two possible Nate tracks - West into Mexico or NNE. Splitting the difference guarantees a wrong forecast. New Canadian is west into Mexico, as is the new GFDL. I still don't see it being picked up and carried north to the northern Gulf Coast.
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#703 Postby rockyman » Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:00 pm

12z Euro is running...watch it here:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html
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Re: ATL: NATE - Models

#704 Postby clfenwi » Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:00 pm

12Z GFDl also flips to Tampico

HOUR: .0 LONG: -92.39 LAT: 20.43 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.93 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.07
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -92.06 LAT: 20.26 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.62 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -91.97 LAT: 20.13 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.52 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 55.46
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -91.72 LAT: 20.07 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.44 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.68
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -91.74 LAT: 20.67 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.23 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.08
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -92.12 LAT: 20.91 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.29 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.26
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -92.10 LAT: 20.93 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.12 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.47
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -92.44 LAT: 21.25 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.95 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.63
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -92.81 LAT: 21.65 MIN PRESS (hPa): 987.79 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.38
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -93.23 LAT: 21.91 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.38 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.85
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -93.65 LAT: 22.11 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.63 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.60
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -94.26 LAT: 22.12 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.55 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.91
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -94.78 LAT: 22.11 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.35 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.90
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -95.23 LAT: 22.11 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.03 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.15
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -95.81 LAT: 22.28 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.63 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.74
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -96.72 LAT: 22.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.48 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 94.30
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -97.59 LAT: 22.25 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 90.76
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -98.61 LAT: 21.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.41 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.73
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -99.34 LAT: 21.49 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.23 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.65
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -101.34 LAT: 20.73 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.72 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 31.81
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -102.68 LAT: 21.01 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.07 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 21.80
-99.9 -99.90 -99.90



Image

Loop
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#705 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:02 pm

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#706 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:02 pm

Are you referring to the entire GOM?
If so, I hate to disappoint but it's (dry air) not going anywhere
anytime soon.


SoupBone wrote:
3090 wrote:Dry air in and around Nate in the GOM is getting squeezed out. If I had to bet, I would bet the dry air will oly be around another 24hrs. or so.


Do you have something to back this up? The Texas dry air looks persistent right now.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon

#707 Postby tobol.7uno » Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:06 pm

Data indicating that Nate is south of where NHC thought he was.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Models

#708 Postby clfenwi » Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:09 pm

12Z UKMET...also Mexico

TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 92.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152011
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2011 20.1N 92.1W MODERATE
00UTC 09.09.2011 20.2N 92.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2011 20.7N 92.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 10.09.2011 21.4N 93.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2011 21.9N 94.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2011 22.1N 95.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2011 22.1N 96.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 12.09.2011 22.2N 98.1W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 12.09.2011 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon

#709 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:10 pm

tobol.7uno wrote:
Dave wrote:
About to reach the strong area...


Could use some graphics help on Maria tobol.7uno if you want.

Yes, I am going to do both unless you want me to take her and you take Nate?


I've got Nate...go for Maria..
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon

#710 Postby tobol.7uno » Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:11 pm

Dave wrote:I've got Nate...go for Maria..

Alright, I will do Maria.
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#711 Postby rockyman » Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:13 pm

Euro looks Mexico-bound through 72 hours
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Re: ATL: NATE - Models

#712 Postby Javlin » Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:13 pm

Hard to envision going from NGOM to MX in six hours what gives??The symnoptics in the GOM must be really tough to deal with this season.Give it to TX/MX I have some roof damage on the workshop that Lee exposed for me,a blessing in disguise.
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#713 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:14 pm

012
URNT15 KNHC 081812
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 19 20110908
175530 2006N 09237W 9596 00374 0017 +207 //// 058033 033 035 001 01
175600 2005N 09235W 9590 00376 0015 +205 //// 065033 033 034 000 01
175630 2004N 09234W 9596 00368 0012 +204 //// 066032 032 035 001 01
175700 2003N 09233W 9595 00368 0010 +202 //// 069032 033 035 000 01
175730 2002N 09232W 9594 00367 0007 +203 //// 070032 032 034 000 05
175800 2000N 09231W 9593 00363 0003 +206 //// 065031 032 032 000 01
175830 1959N 09231W 9592 00363 0000 +209 //// 058028 030 032 000 01
175900 1958N 09230W 9566 00384 9998 +209 //// 055026 027 029 000 01
175930 1956N 09229W 9526 00420 9996 +204 //// 051023 024 028 001 01
180000 1955N 09228W 9525 00419 9994 +211 //// 047023 023 026 000 01
180030 1953N 09227W 9523 00418 9990 +217 //// 041022 023 026 000 01
180100 1952N 09226W 9525 00413 9986 +220 //// 038022 023 025 001 05
180130 1951N 09225W 9524 00413 9985 +220 //// 043020 021 024 000 01
180200 1950N 09224W 9526 00412 9985 +220 //// 055020 020 021 000 01
180230 1949N 09223W 9524 00411 9983 +220 //// 057018 019 020 000 01
180300 1948N 09222W 9522 00411 9979 +226 //// 043017 018 018 000 05
180330 1946N 09220W 9528 00405 9978 +227 //// 042012 012 013 001 01
180400 1945N 09219W 9523 00407 9975 +233 //// 032010 011 009 000 05
180430 1944N 09218W 9524 00405 9975 +226 //// 022006 007 007 001 05
180500 1943N 09217W 9522 00407 9974 +232 //// 012005 006 008 001 05
$$
;
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#714 Postby psyclone » Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:15 pm

MGC wrote:The 11am forecast track vindicates my earlier thoughts....how is Nate going to bust through the Mexican ridge? I don't think Nate will. Nate will eventually get picked up by a trough. The more north Nate moves the greater the possibility that will get picked up. That death ridge has been around all summer and I don't see it poofing or moving a whole lot the next week. The trend is your friend. The NHC will gradually adjust the track to the right.....anyone will to take a bet?.......MGC


Of course the above rant is that of MGC and not an official forecast.

Nate is still buried waaaay down there. I'd still be on a Mexican landfall at this point but the picture has gotten murkier today per the models.
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Re: Re:

#715 Postby setxwxgurl » Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:17 pm

thats right I was!!! I will personally stand on the West End of Galveston and welcome you at landfall.....I dont care if he is a CAT 1. I will stand in the surge like Cantore and wait for the eye..... :D


Rock can I join your welcoming committee?? TEE HEE! :cheesy:
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#716 Postby rockyman » Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:17 pm

Euro buries Nate in Mexico...well south of the border...in 96 hours
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Re: ATL: NATE - Models

#717 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:18 pm

12z Euro is into Mexico. I don't think this is NGOM bound imo. We'll see.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Models

#718 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:18 pm

Nate is showing NO signs of being picked up as per the Canadian, so I'll stick with Mexico. Possibly even south of Tampico.
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#719 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:20 pm

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: NATE - Models

#720 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:20 pm

Euro says absolutely not to the north GOM! I'd expect the GFS to shift at 18z I just can't see Nate sitting in the gulf for a week like that.
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