ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

Recon trumps microwave imagery.

If its LLC is established enough they will maintain the storm status

[Aric Dunn]

192 hours turns NE.......

[gatorcane]

192 Hours Euro turns NNE away from Florida......big trough along the Eastern seaboard.

it is 192 hours though so that may not verify.

Florida deflector shield enabled

[rockyman]

NNE and stretched out...looks like Maria hit a brick wall

[AdamFirst]

Seems like constant run after run FL gets lucky

[Evil Jeremy]

SoFlorida is spared in this run, but the west shift is undeniable, as is the shift south from the 00z run in days 3/4 around Hispanola.

[Aric Dunn]

192 Hours Euro turns NNE away from Florida......big trough along the Eastern seaboard.

it is 192 hours though so that may not verify.

Florida deflector shield enabled

[img]http://img163.imageshack.us/img163/3743/12zeurotropical500mbslpf.gif[/ig]

lol yeah.. longs way out. models continue to shift. and will continue until she turns off this due west motion which does not see like its going to happen any time soon.

but im still thinking we wont see such a sharp right turn as it approaches the islands.. the ridging continues to fill in past PR...

[Meteorcane]

Well at least the Euro avoided a Florida hit this run, but it's far enough out I am somewhat concerned at this point.

[SouthFloridawx]

The question is how far south of Hispaniola Maria will make it?

[SouthFLTropics]

192 Hours Euro turns NNE away from Florida......big trough along the Eastern seaboard.

it is 192 hours though so that may not verify.

Florida deflector shield enabled

Since we have Bones to pronounce things dead I say that we have Mr. Sulu to enable the Florida Deflector Shield...



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[Extratropical94]

Scattered HDOB sets floating around here.
Observation 12

URNT15 KNHC 081906
AF306 0114A MARIA HDOB 12 20110908
185630 1452N 05657W 3146 09331 0488 -295 -301 209016 016 026 000 00
185700 1452N 05654W 3145 09330 0487 -295 -302 212015 015 026 001 00
185730 1451N 05651W 3146 09330 0487 -295 -304 215015 015 026 001 00
185800 1451N 05648W 3144 09333 0489 -295 -306 216015 015 026 000 00
185830 1450N 05645W 3146 09334 0488 -295 -307 217014 014 026 001 00
185900 1449N 05643W 3145 09330 0488 -295 -308 219014 014 027 001 00
185930 1449N 05640W 3144 09330 0487 -295 -310 217013 013 026 001 00
190000 1448N 05637W 3144 09336 0488 -295 -310 217012 012 024 002 00
190030 1448N 05634W 3144 09331 0488 -295 -312 223012 012 026 001 00
190100 1447N 05631W 3144 09333 0489 -295 -312 222012 012 027 001 00
190130 1446N 05629W 3146 09331 0490 -295 -313 223012 012 027 001 00
190200 1446N 05626W 3144 09338 0490 -295 -314 222012 013 026 001 00
190230 1445N 05623W 3144 09332 0489 -295 -314 221012 013 028 001 00
190300 1445N 05620W 3144 09334 0489 -295 -314 224013 013 029 004 00
190330 1444N 05617W 3144 09332 0489 -295 -312 222012 012 030 003 00
190400 1443N 05615W 3144 09333 0489 -295 -312 224012 012 033 004 00
190430 1443N 05612W 3145 09335 0490 -295 -310 223012 012 039 010 00
190500 1442N 05609W 3147 09330 0489 -295 -309 219012 012 040 013 00
190530 1441N 05606W 3146 09335 0490 -296 -304 214012 014 039 012 03
190600 1440N 05604W 3156 09315 0490 -296 -297 237013 014 036 008 03
$$

[Dave]

Apparently the Hurricane Hunters are using a Harrier for this mission. Hopefully they're not having major equipment problems.

I feel like I've been on a Harrier...jumped from link to link to backup links to archives and back...just for Nate! lol

[Gustywind]

08/1745 UTC 13.2N 51.9W T2.5/2.5 MARIA
08/1145 UTC 13.0N 50.0W T2.0/2.5 MARIA

[chaser1]

( Tongue in cheek ) Oh no..... The LAST thing I wanted to see was a "sudden recurve" right off our Florida S.E. coast.... Was hoping for a "laser shot" straight on and into Miami then into the Gulf. If NHC does'nt put S. Florida smack in the middle of it's 5 day cone, than i'm concerned that we "might" really catch this one. Bring me the cone~~~~~~~~~

Seriously though, I am far less concerned about 50-100 miles at the end of a 192 hr. forecast, than my concern for the larger synoptic pattern change ( temporary or not ). For one, the strength of the mid Atlantic high only show increasing heights with time. Second, the orientation of the very negatively tilted trough over the Ohio valley, seems to move its energy way too quickly from 168 hr. to 192 hr. to realistically cause a 12 hour motion of "northwest", to a sudden 130 degree motion change towards the N.E. In all actuality, I am anticipating Maria to move south of Puerto Rico, should its present motion continue much longer.

Don't know if anyone noticed, but the official 5 day track from NHC has been adjusted westward, and yet still has Maria just missing Puerto Rico and off to the island's northeast, and only then to nudge more westward afterwards. I am pretty confident that between now and 11:00pm tonight, we will see "that" part of the forecast cone change, and thus the later part of the forecast cone ( perhaps more subtle ) as well.

[tobol.7uno]

400 miles to go...

[Extratropical94]

Observation 13 - descending

URNT15 KNHC 081916
AF306 0114A MARIA HDOB 13 20110908
190630 1440N 05601W 3144 09331 0489 -295 //// 223013 013 033 001 01
190700 1439N 05558W 3145 09334 0490 -290 //// 226014 015 031 001 01
190730 1439N 05555W 3146 09334 0490 -290 //// 224016 017 029 002 01
190800 1439N 05552W 3144 09331 0488 -290 //// 218017 018 029 001 05
190830 1438N 05549W 3146 09329 0488 -288 //// 214018 019 029 001 01
190900 1437N 05547W 3146 09335 0490 -286 -288 212020 020 030 001 00
190930 1437N 05544W 3145 09337 0490 -290 //// 219019 020 030 001 01
191000 1436N 05541W 3144 09329 0488 -290 //// 225017 018 031 000 01
191030 1436N 05538W 3144 09331 0488 -290 //// 219016 017 030 002 01
191100 1435N 05535W 3146 09341 0489 -286 -290 221017 017 031 001 00
191130 1434N 05533W 3144 09335 0490 -285 -291 223016 016 032 000 00
191200 1434N 05530W 3146 09342 0489 -285 -291 223016 017 031 002 00
191230 1433N 05527W 3146 09328 0489 -285 -291 225016 017 032 000 00
191300 1433N 05524W 3144 09338 0490 -289 -291 221016 016 031 002 00
191330 1432N 05521W 3146 09328 0489 -290 -291 222016 016 032 001 00
191400 1431N 05519W 3146 09335 0492 -290 -290 224017 017 033 001 00
191430 1431N 05516W 3211 09193 0485 -279 -289 228016 017 033 000 03
191500 1430N 05513W 3465 08646 0469 -240 -283 244014 014 /// /// 03
191530 1429N 05510W 3715 08165 0453 -204 -274 236013 015 /// /// 03
191600 1429N 05507W 3956 07664 0404 -167 -263 245007 008 /// /// 03
$$

[kirium]

Is it intensifying as it nears the Leeward islands or decreasing?

[Blown Away]

Agree chaser don't usually see those extermely hard R turns at the lower latitudes during early September.

[craptacular]

Yeah, they're having problems with Maria's obs as well. Of course, the training mission obs seem to be coming in without skipping a beat!

[chaser1]

Agree chaser don't usually see those extermely hard R turns at the lower latitudes during early September.

right?! In fact, given the time of year i'd say the new GFDL forecast, better depicts what one might expect climotology to indicate