2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Nice weather next several days

[surfer_dude]

Well you're right, I don't know you.. and I am sorry for questioning you on that. But for the amount of people on this board crossing their fingers for worst-case scenario major hurricane hits, hoping for record winds or rainfall, just so it can beat the record, completely disregarding human life, as disturbing as it is, some members comments compelled me to ask that question.

[setxsunshine]

I don't think people are truly wishing for a major hurricane. A tropical storm, maybe, because it seems that is what it will take to help end this drought.

I certainly don't want a hurricane anywhere near here. We already have huge branches falling at random. A lady I know was in her yard and a branch fell, hit her in the face and now she has 21 stitches across her forehead, two swollen black eyes and other injuries.

But if a hurricane was to come, at least people have time to prepare and evacuate. Not so with these fires. They take what they can grab and get the heck out. If someone dies in a hurricane it's usually because they didn't evacuate when told. I know there are exceptions but that is usually the case.

All natural disasters have their unique dangers. This drought is helping fuel wildfires that ignite and spread sometimes with no warning for people in their path.

In July my brothers house (a double wide mobile home) was in the path of a fire. It got to his yard but thankfully a firetruck showed up and they were able to put it out before it caught the house on fire. My sister in law was inside and if a neighbor had not been home to warn her she would not have known a fire was coming toward her. She would have been caught totally unaware. Thankfully the neighbor was home and the fire truck showed up.

[surfer_dude]

I am sorry to hear about the lady getting hit by the branch, and you are right compared to hurricanes fires are more scattered out and their path is usually unpredictable.

[Ptarmigan]

I don't think people are truly wishing for a major hurricane. A tropical storm, maybe, because it seems that is what it will take to help end this drought.

I certainly don't want a hurricane anywhere near here. We already have huge branches falling at random. A lady I know was in her yard and a branch fell, hit her in the face and now she has 21 stitches across her forehead, two swollen black eyes and other injuries.

But if a hurricane was to come, at least people have time to prepare and evacuate. Not so with these fires. They take what they can grab and get the heck out. If someone dies in a hurricane it's usually because they didn't evacuate when told. I know there are exceptions but that is usually the case.

All natural disasters have their unique dangers. This drought is helping fuel wildfires that ignite and spread sometimes with no warning for people in their path.

In July my brothers house (a double wide mobile home) was in the path of a fire. It got to his yard but thankfully a firetruck showed up and they were able to put it out before it caught the house on fire. My sister in law was inside and if a neighbor had not been home to warn her she would not have known a fire was coming toward her. She would have been caught totally unaware. Thankfully the neighbor was home and the fire truck showed up.

Since tropical storms have been getting worn out by dry air, they will not be enough. We need subtropical jet from the Pacific to end the drought. They bring in a long line of moist air from the Pacific and over us.

[surfer_dude]

In the short time I've been on this board I've seen quite a few comments by members hoping for hurricane landfalls. During Irene, members in both the Discussion and Model thread stated they wanted increased strengthening before landfall or would claim it would happen without any scientific backing. I read one where a member in Louisiana compared getting hit by Ike, Katrina, and Rita as being "spoiled". It seems like a few members here are obsessed with records and "top 10" lists and want "this" storm to eclipse the last one and the next storm to eclipse this one and so on.
Many portions of this thread is a perfect example: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=110094&st=0&sk=t&sd=a
which consistently violates vbhoutex's announcement "ALL MEMBERS PLEASE READ" viewtopic.php?f=37&t=108211

[Ptarmigan]

If you all would prefer to have any other kind of tropical disturbance you're more than welcome to it. I'd rather not partake of anymore this season.

Much appreciate that.

[southerngale]

I had a low of 53° yesterday morning, then it warmed up to the upper 80s. After a low of 52° this morning, it's currently 54° - is it really only September 7th? I've got a portable heater at my feet.

Now if we could just get a blanket of rain to cover Texas... we need an end to all the fires.

[CajunMama]

I'm enjoying this cooler weather too. Parks & recreation built a walking path directly behind our fence line. I've been walking in the mornings and today was a real treat until i saw the man come out of the PUBLIC RESTROOM that they insisted on building behind my house and then the guy proceeded to cross back over the coulee to his truck where he proceeded to sit until i finished my walk prematurely because it was giving me the heebie jeebies. Wow...that was a run on sentence!

[Ptarmigan]

Nice to see the cooler weather, but want rain.

New Look at 1918/1919 El Niño Suggests Link to Flu Pandemic
http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/pandemic_1918_1919.html

The 1918-1919 El Nino was a strong one, possibly on par with 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 El Nino. El Ninos cause droughts like La Nina. It caused a severe drought in India and they suffered greatly during the Influenza Pandemic of 1918.

[PTrackerLA]

Drove through Houston yesterday and WOW I was stunned by all the large trees that appeared to be dead or in the process of dying. As severe as our drought has been this year (has been improving since July) it absolutely pales in comparison as to what has been happening just 3 hours west of me. Here's hoping for relief this fall for you guys.

PS, multiple nights in the 50s in early September, after the summer heat we just had? I would have never believed that just one week ago but I know everyone is loving it!

[Shoshana]

I like the cooler temps too. Low 50's is amazing but until they get the fires under control I can't go out till afternoon when it's into the 90's. Still nicer than 100+

[vbhoutex]

Drove through Houston yesterday and WOW I was stunned by all the large trees that appeared to be dead or in the process of dying. As severe as our drought has been this year (has been improving since July) it absolutely pales in comparison as to what has been happening just 3 hours west of me. Here's hoping for relief this fall for you guys.

PS, multiple nights in the 50s in early September, after the summer heat we just had? I would have never believed that just one week ago but I know everyone is loving it!

Yes it is stunning to see whole forests dying. I know many think we are whining but Texas is in a desperate situation with this drought. It is kind of like the aftermath of a Hurricane. Pictures usually don't do the real truth justice, but when you see it close up it is really sobering.
Loving the temps. Hating the continued dryness and now we have TS Nate which will probably pull down some more dry air and increase the pressure gradient. If we are really lucky he will defy the forecasts and send us massive amounts of moisture. No I am not asking for a TS or a Hurricane, I just want the moisture/rain.

[Tireman4]

Wow. I do not think I have ever heard the meteorologists at the HGX NWS so dejected.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS GENERALLY DO NOT INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ABOVE 1.25 INCHES UNTIL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ABOUT
SEVEN DAYS FROM NOW. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS AND A FORECAST WITHOUT ANY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ELEVATED WILDFIRE THREAT THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY (SEE FIRE WEATHER BELOW). POSSIBLY OUR ONLY
HOPE FOR RAIN MIGHT END UP BEING IF SOMETHING TROPICAL DEVELOPS IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. WITH SOME LUCK WE MIGHT SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
MEXICO AS SOME MODELS ARE ADVERTISING. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
WHAT THE MODEL RUNS DO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH OUR MOISTURE
LEVELS IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. WILL NOT GET OUR HOPES UP
AT ALL AFTER EXPERIENCING WHAT TROPICAL STORM LEE DID TO US!

MAYBE BY LOOKING AT HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE AREA NEEDS TO NOT BE ONE OF
THE TOP 10 DRIEST YEARS ON RECORD WILL GET RAIN IT TO RAIN HERE AGAIN.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ANYONE HAVE ANY OTHER IDEAS? 42
&&

FOR RAINFALL...
CLL HAS 10.92 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THE DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD WAS 1917 WITH 16.66 INCHES.
IAH HAS 11.00 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THE DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD WAS 1917 WITH 17.66 INCHES.
HOU HAS 11.33 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THE DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD WAS 1988 WITH 26.65 INCHES.
GLS HAS 10.58 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THE DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD WAS 1948 WITH 21.40 INCHES

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Flyinman]

The problem we (Texans) are facing in comparison to other states is multiple years of drought. We have been in a consistent rainfall deficit since 2008. Just because we start a new year it does not erase the drought. Yes this year is a record drought but I think in total over 3 years we are in the 30"+ deficit category. I seriously doubt we will ever be able to make up our true rain deficit since the drought began. More somber, I do not see anything in the long range forecast that will prevent this from being the driest year on record for most areas.

[vbhoutex]

The problem we (Texans) are facing in comparison to other states is multiple years of drought. We have been in a consistent rainfall deficit since 2008. Just because we start a new year it does not erase the drought. Yes this year is a record drought but I think in total over 3 years we are in the 30"+ deficit category. I seriously doubt we will ever be able to make up our true rain deficit since the drought began. More somber, I do not see anything in the long range forecast that will prevent this from being the driest year on record for most areas.

Unfortunately I think you are correct. With La Nina predicted and probable we will be in for a dry Winter also.

[Ptarmigan]

The problem we (Texans) are facing in comparison to other states is multiple years of drought. We have been in a consistent rainfall deficit since 2008. Just because we start a new year it does not erase the drought. Yes this year is a record drought but I think in total over 3 years we are in the 30"+ deficit category. I seriously doubt we will ever be able to make up our true rain deficit since the drought began. More somber, I do not see anything in the long range forecast that will prevent this from being the driest year on record for most areas.

Unfortunately I think you are correct. With La Nina predicted and probable we will be in for a dry Winter also.

A dry winter is not good either. The Cockroach Dome prevails.

[Shoshana]

La Nina is back according to NOAA

edited cause I'm not used to and must have auto typed which is TOTALLY inappropriate!

[Houstonia]

La Nina is back according to NOAA

You meant a frowny face, right?

“This means drought is likely to continue in the drought-stricken states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center.

[Mathias]

If La Nina has already resumed, then maybe it will end sooner than expected.

[Shoshana]

La Nina is back according to NOAA

You meant a frowny face, right?

“This means drought is likely to continue in the drought-stricken states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center.

Yikes. I did mean a frowny face. Thought that's what I clicked Off to 'edit'