ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[ROCK]

cant imagine RECON flying in coming up on the center of a lopsided TS thinking no big deal then BAM!! 80knt flight level winds....slight bumpy ride there....


would love to see some film of RECON if they ever decide to film an entire mission....

[Dave]

Never trust your clipboard...hdobs running late again..waiting..

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 082051
97779 20474 51187 92300 15400 26050 1615/ /2460
RMK AF300 0215A NATE OB 10
SWS = 44 KTS
;

[Dave]

DECODED RECCO OBS 10

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 20:51Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number: 15
Storm Name: Nate (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 10

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Thursday, 20:47Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 18.7N 92.3W
Location: 65 miles (105 km) to the NE (40°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 1,540 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 260° at 50 knots (From the W at ~ 57.5 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 16°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 15°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Clear
850 mb Surface Altitude: 1,460 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 44 knots (~ 50.6mph)

[Dave]

Nothing on any site since hdobs 34...checking for a vdm at anytime just in case.

[gmr548]

12z GFS Ensembles... cause im bored

These battles of King Euro vs Wizard GFS makes my day go by so much faster.. It's a sad day when they agree

http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/2415/at201115ensmodel.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Don't tease us with your great white hope.

[petit_bois]

shouldn't the 18z GFS be running now?

[clfenwi]

I haven't seen obs from the G IV

Yeah, I just noticed that myself... went to see how many observations got into the 18Z GFS and the only dropsondes are a couple from the Air Force mission. Either the observations didn't get transmitted or the flight is delayed/cancelled.

[Cranica]

Rock, if you haven't seen it, you should check out Jeff Masters' account of his flight into Hurricane Hugo.

[tobol.7uno]

Looks like the name of this thread will be changed to Hurricane Nate sooner than expected! I think that in order to upgrade Nate to a hurricane NHC wants to see better organization. There is a radar in the area, but it does not reach the center, that would help a bit. Here is the link... http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/alvarado/rad-alva.gif

The main Mexico radar page... http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=14&Itemid=84

[Dave]

I haven't seen obs from the G IV

Yeah, I just noticed that myself... went to see how many observations got into the 18Z GFS and the only dropsondes are a couple from the Air Force mission. Either the observations didn't get transmitted or the flight is delayed/cancelled.

3 planes with problems? Nate was coming in the best but still intermittent at times now nothing. Maria flight about the same and nothing from the G IV...I'd say the transmitters are fine but somethings wrong on the reception side....just an opinion but seems that way.

[tobol.7uno]

Radar shows rain effecting central america, but cannot see out to the center .

[tobol.7uno]

Rock, if you haven't seen it, you should check out Jeff Masters' account of his flight into Hurricane Hugo.

I have read that. Sounds like fun! While of course extremely scary. I am glad they all made it out alive. Has there ever been any fatalities on hurricane hunter planes?

[southerngale]

Some posts have been removed.

Watch the language!!

[Jevo]

Some posts have been removed.

Watch the language!!

Gale has me wondering if I cursed... lol

anywho

18z GFS Initialized

[southerngale]

Not that I saw, Jevo, but now I'll be watching you. haha


Looking at the split model map and remembering how Texas swallowed Don whole, it's not surprising that none of them want to visit this desert.

[Jevo]

18Z GFS +24



18Z GFS +48

[PauleinHouston]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say this will be Hurr Nate by end of the night. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 2 in the next few days based on how quickly it's spun up. While not a "classic" looking system, the lower level organization looks great while it needs the mid-upper levels to fill in. Maybe that's due to land interaction with the Yuc peninsula?

[tobol.7uno]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say this will be Hurr Nate by end of the night. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 2 in the next few days based on how quickly it's spun up. While not a "classic" looking system, the lower level organization looks great while it needs the mid-upper levels to fill in. Maybe that's due to land interaction with the Yuc peninsula?

I am glad you said it first, I wanted to say that before, but I was not sure. I think he will be a hurricane tonight as well. NHC may not say so, but I think that it is just short of hurricane intensity now.

[clfenwi]

Rock, if you haven't seen it, you should check out Jeff Masters' account of his flight into Hurricane Hugo.

I have read that. Sounds like fun! While of course extremely scary. I am glad they all made it out alive. Has there ever been any fatalities on hurricane hunter planes?

Dr. Masters was doing a series of articles on the "The 6 lost Hurricane Hunter missions"... doesn't look like he's gotten around to #6, but here's links to the others

1 - Oct 1, 1945 typhoon
2 - Typhoon Wilma, 1952
3 - Typhoon Doris, 1954
4 - Hurricane Janet, 1955
5 - Typhoon Ophelia, 1958