ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1361 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Sep 08, 2011 10:59 pm

Through 54 hours, 00z GFS a little bit south of last run.
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Re:

#1362 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2011 11:00 pm

Adoquín wrote:Luis look at those pinks in the water temps from Barbados to Aguadilla...


Is a bathtube.

Image

Image
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#1363 Postby Adoquín » Thu Sep 08, 2011 11:05 pm

exactly. :roll:
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#1364 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Sep 08, 2011 11:08 pm

Another thing is that it looks like in another 7 to 10 days, going off the track, the NE is going to be impacted...AGAIN. We're already having record flooding after Irene and the remnants of Lee...Maria just might be the nail in the coffin for some of these places.
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#1365 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Sep 08, 2011 11:09 pm

78 hours out, Maria still more south of the last run, with the ridge noticeably stronger:
- removed by tolakram, remote linking not allowed
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#1366 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Sep 08, 2011 11:12 pm

This is reminding me of Emily more and more. Will this escape the graveyard? If the track shifts anywhere near Hispaniola it's game over
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#1367 Postby Adoquín » Thu Sep 08, 2011 11:12 pm

It is September 9 folks. Fasten your seatbelts, it is going to be a bumpy and costly ride.
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Re:

#1368 Postby Shuriken » Thu Sep 08, 2011 11:52 pm

AdamFirst wrote:This is reminding me of Emily more and more. Will this escape the graveyard? If the track shifts anywhere near Hispaniola it's game over
I believe it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-ir2.html

You can visibly watch the ridge filling in behind Katia, and the surface surge racing across and bowling Maria's LCC ahead of it.

Maria reminds me a lot of the proto-Iris of 2001, a storm that sheared apart (before being TD'd) into an open wave with no discernible circulation at all at one point, then rapidly re-organized into a cat-4 before hitting Belize. Every step of the way, it had been projected to slant right, and it never did.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Advisories

#1369 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 09, 2011 12:45 am

2 AM Public Advisory:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 090537
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
200 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

...MARIA HEADING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH NO CHANGE IN
INTENISTY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 55.5W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...AND SAINT
KITTS
* ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...AND MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY
SATURDAY...AND BE NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES BY LATE TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#1370 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 09, 2011 12:48 am

Earlier in the night we had some heavy showers with gusty winds. Now, every once in a while I'm hearing some distant rolls of thunder but it's not raining.

Ooh! Now I know why I'm hearing thunder. I just had a look at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html :lol:
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Re: ATL: MARIA- Tropical Storm- Discussion

#1371 Postby HurricaneBill » Fri Sep 09, 2011 1:48 am

SuperLikeNintendo wrote:Maria, in my opinion, is the most unpredictable system this season thus far.



How do you track a system like Maria?
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Re: ATL: MARIA- Tropical Storm- Discussion

#1372 Postby Jevo » Fri Sep 09, 2011 2:06 am

HurricaneBill wrote:
SuperLikeNintendo wrote:Maria, in my opinion, is the most unpredictable system this season thus far.



How do you track a system like Maria?


I see what you did there :lol: :lol:

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon

#1373 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Sep 09, 2011 2:30 am

FROM THE EARLIER YESTERDAY...

Most of the obs from the mission that had problems yesterday finally came in.

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1374 Postby dwsqos2 » Fri Sep 09, 2011 2:37 am

At 7Z buoy 41101 reported winds out the NE (40 degrees) at 26 knots and a pressure of 29.66 in., or 1004 mb. Now this isn't the most compelling thing in the world, but it shows that Maria is probably going to be at least a deeper surface trough than yesterday's 12Z Euro was progging. (The 12Z Euro had Maria as a 1009 mb low 12Z today.)

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101

Yes, I'm really bored.
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Re:

#1375 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 09, 2011 3:30 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:78 hours out, Maria still more south of the last run, with the ridge noticeably stronger:



Jeremy, your links don't work because they have disabled all remote linking.
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#1376 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 09, 2011 4:35 am

000
WTNT34 KNHC 090849
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

...RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIA ALREADY REACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 56.2W
ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1377 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 09, 2011 4:54 am

I'm still not certain Maria has an LLC. We'll find out this morning when recon arrives in a few hours.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1378 Postby bob rulz » Fri Sep 09, 2011 5:03 am

Yeah, it's had an impressive convective blow-up, but its overall organization reminds me of those struggling tropical waves that often approach this area and have at best weak, diffuse circulations. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean that it doesn't have a LLC, but it does seem to be a common occurrence for these storms to lose their circulation earlier than expected and for the NHC to hang on to advisories longer than necessary (not criticizing them, I know they're just being cautious and waiting until they know all of the facts, which is how it should be).
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1379 Postby xironman » Fri Sep 09, 2011 5:05 am

6z at 60, a bit north but the ridge is a bit stronger

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1380 Postby xironman » Fri Sep 09, 2011 5:10 am

@81 the ridge still extends a bit more west, the wave is a little slower this run

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