ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.0N, 65.5W or about 50.0 miles (80.5 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 1 day, 22 hours and 58 minutes from now (Sunday, September 11 at 5:12AM AST).

[xironman]

@105 trough coming strong, about to knock her OTS

[Gustywind]

Loop of TS Maria.

[xironman]

And there she goes, watch out Bermuda!



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 091008
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 06 20110909
095900 1553N 06231W 3761 08027 0408 -193 //// 133002 003 020 000 01
095930 1551N 06229W 3761 08024 0409 -195 //// 121004 005 020 000 01
100000 1550N 06227W 3760 08029 0410 -195 //// 122007 008 022 000 01
100030 1548N 06225W 3759 08033 0410 -194 //// 133007 008 021 000 01
100100 1547N 06223W 3759 08035 0410 -190 //// 138007 008 020 000 01
100130 1545N 06221W 3759 08029 0409 -190 //// 133006 006 020 000 01
100200 1543N 06219W 3759 08028 0409 -185 //// 143006 006 018 001 05
100230 1542N 06218W 3758 08035 0409 -185 //// 143005 006 019 000 01
100300 1540N 06216W 3759 08027 0407 -185 //// 136003 004 019 000 05
100330 1538N 06214W 3759 08028 0407 -185 //// 140002 002 016 000 01
100400 1537N 06212W 3759 08027 0407 -185 //// 097001 001 017 000 01
100430 1535N 06210W 3758 08029 0409 -185 //// 212002 002 018 000 01
100500 1533N 06208W 3759 08028 0407 -187 //// 238002 003 019 000 01
100530 1532N 06206W 3760 08026 0405 -190 //// 266004 004 021 000 01
100600 1530N 06204W 3758 08027 0406 -190 //// 265005 005 020 000 01
100630 1528N 06202W 3758 08031 0405 -191 //// 268006 006 019 000 01
100700 1526N 06200W 3759 08025 0406 -189 -192 274007 007 021 001 00
100730 1525N 06158W 3759 08023 0406 -190 -192 266007 007 022 000 00
100800 1523N 06156W 3759 08026 0406 -190 -194 256007 007 023 000 00
100830 1521N 06154W 3758 08030 0407 -190 -194 241006 007 024 000 00

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 091018
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 07 20110909
100900 1520N 06152W 3759 08025 0409 -190 -195 229008 009 024 000 00
100930 1518N 06150W 3759 08030 0409 -190 -196 237009 009 026 000 00
101000 1516N 06148W 3761 08028 0409 -194 -197 237009 009 026 000 00
101030 1515N 06146W 3758 08032 0410 -191 -197 231009 009 024 000 00
101100 1513N 06144W 3759 08034 0409 -195 -198 231008 009 023 000 00
101130 1511N 06142W 3758 08028 0408 -195 -198 240008 008 020 001 00
101200 1510N 06141W 3758 08030 0406 -195 -199 233008 009 018 000 00
101230 1508N 06139W 3759 08030 0405 -195 -200 228010 011 020 000 00
101300 1506N 06137W 3762 08021 0407 -195 -200 221011 012 021 000 00
101330 1505N 06135W 3757 08033 0408 -194 -200 212010 010 019 001 00
101400 1503N 06133W 3759 08032 0410 -190 -201 202011 012 016 000 00
101430 1501N 06131W 3755 08040 0410 -194 -202 212010 011 019 001 00
101500 1500N 06129W 3762 08030 0410 -193 -204 213009 010 024 001 00
101530 1458N 06127W 3758 08033 0411 -195 -206 216009 009 025 000 00
101600 1456N 06125W 3759 08033 0410 -193 -207 217010 010 025 000 00
101630 1454N 06123W 3759 08029 0409 -192 -208 223011 011 025 000 00
101700 1453N 06121W 3758 08038 0410 -190 -209 231011 011 025 001 00
101730 1451N 06119W 3759 08028 0408 -190 -209 235009 010 027 000 00
101800 1449N 06117W 3759 08030 0410 -190 -210 234009 009 027 000 00
101830 1448N 06115W 3759 08032 0408 -195 -211 227008 008 031 000 03

[BigA]

I know the NOGAPS is a rather mediocre model, but I would be remiss to ignore that its 06 run has shifted way west. Brings the trough out earlier and builds ridging south of it sending Maria right into South Florida at 144 hours.





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I think the case could be made that of the globals, 4 out of 5 (Euro, Nogaps, UKMET, CMC) see a possible threat to the east coast, while the GFS is the one global that does not. Note that not all the globals that see a threat to the east coast show landfall on the east coast. This does say that Maria's future as a recurve east of the US is not yet certain.

[cycloneye]

This mornings discussion of Maria by Rob of Crown Weather.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical Storm Maria:
Satellite imagery this morning indicates that convection is increasing with Maria and it is expected that Maria will continue to strengthen slowly as it tracks across the northeastern Caribbean on Saturday and Saturday night. Once Maria tracks to the north of Puerto Rico on Sunday, we should see a somewhat quicker rate of intensification and Maria should become a hurricane by early next week. Maria is tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 18 to 19 mph this morning. Most of the track model guidance are forecasting a track across the northeastern Caribbean Saturday followed by a track that takes Maria to the east of the Bahamas and then northward well east of the United States. The European model is further west and forecasts a track that takes Maria across the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday and then impacts eastern North Carolina next Sunday.

Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for most of the islands in the northeastern Caribbean and tropical storm conditions are expected from today through Saturday across the northeastern Caribbean.

I think Maria will end up tracking further west than the track models suggest perhaps turning north at around 74 West Longitude. A trough of low pressure is forecast to push off of the US East Coast next week and this should be able to deflect Maria north and northeast away from the US East Coast.

[xironman]

If you ask me, the GFS is loopy this run. Looks like an early November map. Stupid Nina, northern stream is going to kill the winter...

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 091028
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 08 20110909
101900 1446N 06114W 3757 08031 0406 -196 -211 227007 008 /// /// 03
101930 1444N 06112W 3759 08022 0400 -196 -212 220005 006 /// /// 03
102000 1443N 06110W 3759 07782 0197 -199 -212 211005 006 /// /// 03
102030 1441N 06108W 3759 07466 4898 -198 -211 229005 006 /// /// 03
102100 1440N 06106W 3762 07679 0037 -200 -210 220006 007 /// /// 03
102130 1438N 06103W 3758 07789 0224 -198 -210 229005 006 /// /// 03
102200 1437N 06101W 3762 07995 0374 -197 -210 225004 005 /// /// 03
102230 1435N 06100W 3759 08019 0376 -195 -210 232004 004 /// /// 03
102300 1433N 06058W 3757 07995 0386 -196 -209 236005 005 /// /// 03
102330 1431N 06057W 3763 07847 0265 -197 -209 232005 006 /// /// 03
102400 1429N 06056W 3761 07978 0310 -194 -209 238005 005 /// /// 03
102430 1427N 06054W 3758 08020 0403 -196 -210 253005 006 /// /// 03
102500 1425N 06053W 3761 08013 0404 -200 -211 278006 007 095 011 03
102530 1423N 06052W 3759 08029 0413 -202 -212 292009 012 053 003 03
102600 1421N 06051W 3762 08030 0415 -191 -211 257011 011 043 006 00
102630 1419N 06050W 3760 08035 0415 -190 -208 260010 012 042 012 03
102700 1417N 06049W 3746 08053 0416 -189 -204 347007 012 /// /// 03
102730 1414N 06047W 3761 08033 0416 -184 -195 327010 013 /// /// 03
102800 1412N 06046W 3756 08046 0415 -182 -186 337010 013 /// /// 03
102830 1411N 06045W 3764 08026 0416 -183 //// 025016 020 /// /// 05

[Gustywind]

Hey ouragans, maybe the reeve ("governor") has heard you . That's seems a wise decision in my opinion, for the rest we will see.
One word since yesterday on the lips of our newspaper FranceAntilles, Marylin, Marylin

METEO. Schools closed at noon

franceantilles.fr09.09.2011
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 137943.php

Due to the approach of Tropical Storm Maria, Reeve took the decision that night: the schools of the achipel, islands of the North included, will close at noon. Parents are requested to make their arrangements to retrieve their children. This measure was taken to avoid the traffic congestion and disruption generated by the arrival of heavy rains and wind gusts planned late afternoon. Marylin served as lesson…

[ouragans]

I saw that, Gustywind, but I don't know if you noticed that it was not the governor talking, but his right arm... I think, same as Marilyn, that the governor has not arrived here yet..

Anyway, I expect Red Alert by 6PM just before the first gusts to be on the southern islands. IMO, timing should be the same as for a hurricane, but one step down.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 091038
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 09 20110909
102900 1409N 06044W 3759 08034 0416 -184 //// 052021 023 /// /// 05
102930 1407N 06042W 3759 08031 0414 -181 //// 055018 020 /// /// 05
103000 1405N 06041W 3758 08038 0413 -180 //// 053019 020 /// /// 05
103030 1404N 06039W 3758 08030 0412 -180 //// 053020 021 /// /// 05
103100 1402N 06037W 3756 08039 0413 -179 //// 044017 019 /// /// 05
103130 1401N 06036W 3761 08031 0413 -178 //// 021017 021 /// /// 05
103200 1359N 06034W 3755 08039 0412 -180 //// 339013 014 /// /// 05
103230 1358N 06032W 3759 08034 0413 -180 //// 327014 015 /// /// 05
103300 1356N 06030W 3763 08035 0416 -180 //// 013008 011 /// /// 05
103330 1355N 06028W 3757 08037 0417 -181 //// 010007 010 /// /// 05
103400 1354N 06026W 3759 08039 0417 -181 //// 347001 003 /// /// 05
103430 1352N 06024W 3761 08039 0417 -180 //// 167004 006 /// /// 05
103500 1351N 06022W 3758 08040 0418 -180 //// 188005 005 /// /// 05
103530 1350N 06020W 3758 08037 0417 -182 //// 151002 004 /// /// 05
103600 1349N 06018W 3758 08038 0417 -183 //// 337003 004 /// /// 05
103630 1348N 06016W 3759 08030 0417 -182 //// 016008 009 /// /// 05
103700 1347N 06014W 3762 08033 0416 -180 //// 068006 006 /// /// 05
103730 1346N 06012W 3758 08036 0416 -180 //// 046009 010 /// /// 05
103800 1345N 06010W 3759 08031 0415 -180 //// 043008 009 /// /// 05
103830 1343N 06008W 3758 08030 0415 -180 //// 026005 006 /// /// 05
$$

[Cranica]

That is some really impressive convection, -80C tops over hundreds of square miles. Is this the effects of the wave Dr. Masters was talking about?

[cycloneye]

For the record.


TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED. SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE FALLING...AS INDICATED BY BUOY 41101 WHICH RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003.7 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 35 KNOTS AT THIS TIME...AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL
CHECK MARIA AROUND 1200 UTC. THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IS
NOT AS HOSTILE AS IT WAS 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO...AND THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IT IS SOMEWHAT
MORE AGGRESSIVE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST
FOLLOWS SUCH GUIDANCE.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17
KNOTS. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AS GLOBAL
MODELS NOW FORECAST A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. ON THAT BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN
SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BUT IT IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEW
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN CASE MODELS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH IN THE
NEXT CYCLE. GIVEN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 13.8N 56.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 14.5N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 16.0N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 17.5N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 19.0N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 22.0N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 24.0N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 27.0N 73.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[xironman]

Finally descending... They are pretty far south

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 091059
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 11 20110909
104900 1329N 05922W 3799 07957 0405 -174 //// 168004 005 /// /// 05
104930 1327N 05920W 3915 07729 0392 -159 //// 133008 009 /// /// 05
105000 1326N 05918W 4041 07485 0377 -149 //// 145005 007 /// /// 05
105030 1324N 05917W 4175 07239 0362 -136 //// 193005 007 /// /// 05
105100 1323N 05915W 4314 06989 0346 -118 //// 182005 006 /// /// 05
105130 1322N 05913W 4453 06749 0333 -106 //// 211006 007 /// /// 05
105200 1320N 05912W 4613 06485 0324 -091 -096 225010 011 /// /// 03
105230 1318N 05910W 4776 06225 0313 -079 -086 216013 014 /// /// 03
105300 1317N 05909W 4941 05955 0299 -063 -077 220015 015 /// /// 03
105330 1315N 05908W 5125 05681 0282 -047 -067 228015 016 /// /// 03
105400 1313N 05907W 5316 05384 0264 -034 -056 244012 014 /// /// 03
105430 1311N 05907W 5496 05120 0250 -021 -046 267007 009 /// /// 03
105500 1309N 05906W 5683 04853 0093 -008 -036 264010 011 /// /// 03
105530 1307N 05905W 5868 04579 0076 +011 -026 268008 009 018 001 03
105600 1305N 05905W 6056 04344 0083 +030 -017 274007 007 018 001 00
105630 1304N 05904W 6242 04102 0081 +048 -009 248005 006 020 000 00
105700 1302N 05904W 6443 03834 0081 +064 -004 331004 005 017 000 00
105730 1300N 05903W 6646 03577 0077 +082 +002 021005 006 017 001 00
105800 1258N 05903W 6844 03330 0075 +097 +010 009007 008 016 002 00
105830 1256N 05902W 6957 03194 0071 +106 +016 007009 009 015 001 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Finally descending... They are pretty far south

It looks like they will make first pass from SW to NE.

[CronkPSU]

doesn't look like it went wnw to me overnight but whatever...still has a chance to strengthen but hope it stays disorganized

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 091108
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 12 20110909
105900 1255N 05902W 7080 03044 0073 +113 +022 357010 011 014 001 00
105930 1253N 05901W 7288 02802 0068 +131 +028 347010 011 014 001 00
110000 1251N 05901W 7500 02558 0065 +146 +035 327010 011 016 000 00
110030 1249N 05900W 7725 02306 0072 +159 +045 328009 010 014 001 00
110100 1247N 05900W 7956 02063 0079 +170 +053 343011 011 016 001 00
110130 1246N 05859W 8187 01814 0085 +173 +073 343010 010 017 000 00
110200 1244N 05859W 8397 01595 0080 +189 +083 352012 013 017 000 00
110230 1242N 05858W 8433 01556 0079 +191 +084 357013 014 017 000 00
110300 1240N 05857W 8433 01557 0080 +189 +090 350012 013 015 000 00
110330 1239N 05857W 8428 01563 0079 +189 +095 337010 011 015 001 00
110400 1237N 05856W 8433 01556 0078 +191 +097 331009 009 017 000 00
110430 1236N 05855W 8430 01559 0079 +188 +103 339007 009 018 001 00
110500 1235N 05854W 8429 01560 0082 +180 +113 360008 009 019 002 03
110530 1233N 05853W 8436 01554 0083 +182 +109 003005 008 020 001 00
110600 1233N 05851W 8427 01562 0082 +179 +118 335006 010 025 001 03
110630 1232N 05849W 8433 01557 0082 +177 +118 304009 010 021 002 00
110700 1232N 05848W 8428 01565 0084 +177 +112 301010 011 019 000 00
110730 1232N 05846W 8429 01561 0086 +176 +114 315010 010 019 000 00
110800 1231N 05844W 8435 01553 0080 +183 +113 326008 008 018 000 03
110830 1231N 05843W 8425 01564 0082 +181 +109 283006 007 015 000 03
$$