ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

09/1145 UTC 13.5N 58.0W T3.0/3.0 MARIA -- Atlantic

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

Up to 40kts.

AL, 14, 2011090912, , BEST, 0, 140N, 570W, 40, 1003, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[SouthDadeFish]

Wow check out CIMSS ADT estimates:


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2011 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 13:57:05 N Lon : 56:45:37 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 997.8mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.4 4.4

Center Temp : -73.9C Cloud Region Temp : -75.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

[xironman]

Both the 00Z GFS and ECM are forecasting this to occur around days 8-10 (9/17 - 9/19) as a cutoff 500 MB low forms over South Carolina. One big difference is that the ECM is much slower with the forward speed and northward turn of Maria than the GFS. The GFS pretty much is totally baroclinic in lowering pressure in that area, while the ECM takes what's left of a decapitated Maria and pulls the remnant vorticity into a stronger developing low.

Your right, I had not looked at the 0z GFS that far out. The 6z has the strong vort up by the great lakes taking over.

[SouthDadeFish]

After looking at visible imagery I would put the center roughly around 13.5N and 58.5W. If the center is at 57W as the best track data shows, then it is very elongated.

[AJC3]

57, maybe the center is more eastward?

Or maybe it doesn't have a well defined one anymore. RECON seems to suggest this is the case.

[tobol.7uno]

Looks like there is a circulation, yet to find the intensity...

[wxman57]

57, maybe the center is more eastward?

Recon seems to be finding a few weak swirls, but nothing definitive. The squalls are producing winds to TS strength in a few spots, and they certainly will bring some heavy rain, but I don't see any hurricane threat to the NE Caribbean.

[Weatherboy1]

57, maybe the center is more eastward?

Or maybe it doesn't have a well defined one anymore. RECON seems to suggest this is the case.

Seems like another one of those cases where RECON has a hard time finding a W wind when the storm motion is very quickly to the west, no? We've had a couple of systems over the last few years that look very good on satellite ... that are speeding off to the W ... in the same general area ... but that recon can't find a west wind for.

[BigA]

13.5N 58W vs 14N 57W could make a world of difference in terms of track. Don't have enough information or reasoning powers to determine which is correct, if either. Of course, given a storm like this, center reformations are always possible.

[Aric Dunn]

57, maybe the center is more eastward?

very hard to tell but the center looks farther sw. more towards barbados.... thats using radar sat and surface obs. looks just east of barbados. barbados reporting NE winds while just south of there on satellite there is clearly eastward moving low level cu clouds.

closer to 13.5N 57.5W

[SouthDadeFish]

57, maybe the center is more eastward?

very hard to tell but the center looks farther sw. more towards barbados.... thats using radar sat and surface obs. looks just east of barbados. barbados reporting NE winds while just south of there on satellite there is clearly eastward moving low level cu clouds.

That's where I have it at. Recon did find a few west winds in that area, but nothing too convincing. Seemed like a weak swirl that may or may not become the main LLC.

[Aric Dunn]

oh recon is out there ??

[BigA]

I may be getting loop hallucinations but I think I see three competing areas. One is near the NHC position; the second is to the southwest, just east of Barbados, and the third is to the east-southeast, around 13.6N 55.5W.

[Aric Dunn]

57, maybe the center is more eastward?

very hard to tell but the center looks farther sw. more towards barbados.... thats using radar sat and surface obs. looks just east of barbados. barbados reporting NE winds while just south of there on satellite there is clearly eastward moving low level cu clouds.

That's where I have it at. Recon did find a few west winds in that area, but nothing too convincing. Seemed like a weak swirl that may or may not become the main LLC.

well not surprised the south side weak still its moving very fast still. I knew the wnw motion was bogus not with the current steering that has been in place all night.

[xironman]

At the layer it is at (TC MSLP/Vmax: >1000mb/<45kts), the storm may skip the NW turn altogether.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

09/1145 UTC 13.5N 58.0W T3.0/3.0 MARIA

[Aric Dunn]

At the layer it is at (TC MSLP/Vmax: >1000mb/<45kts), the storm may skip the NW turn altogether.

http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/6449/wg8dlm1.gif

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

yeah even the mid levels that ridge has been quite strong and persitant. you can run the loop of the steering and see the trend over the last couple days. and note how the ridging has filled in behind KAtia quite a bit and the weakness that was there appears to have shifted farther west.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 2java.html

[Aric Dunn]

anyone want to start making an animation of the radar. ?

[redneck51]