ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheBurn]

12:45Z WV Enhanced

[xironman]

If it misses the weakness and gets under that ridging by Cuba, things could really change.

[CrazyC83]

Sitting under a ridge = a recipe for rapid intensification? I think Maria could bomb out if she ends up in the central Caribbean.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar loop is only 4 frames need way longer to be useful really.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[meriland23]

At the layer it is at (TC MSLP/Vmax: >1000mb/<45kts), the storm may skip the NW turn altogether.

http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/6449/wg8dlm1.gif

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

What would you say the likeliness of that happening is? Just for s&g. What would that implicate if it missed the nw turn

[tgenius]

Stronger ridge=more westbound correct? Wouldn't that bring SFL into play?

[BigA]

If it misses the weakness and gets under that ridging by Cuba, things could really change.

I agree that it's a total "game changer" if Maria is located at 13.5N 58W rather than 14N 57W. That would certainly shift the track to the west of Puerto Rico, and conceivably south of Hispaniola.

I don't see this moving northwest much in the short run if its at 13.5 58. Big if.

[ouragans]

Aric, here are some links, closer to the islands

Guadeloupe short range: http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/3h/bul_3h_guad.php

Martinique short range: http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/3h/bul_3h_mart.php

Otherwise, these a long range with a longer loop, mais it seems that the server is down:
http://www.cgste.mq/radar/Animation.asp

EDIT: server is veeeeery slow. change the range in the bottom left box to 200km, then click 'go' for the loop

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091218
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 19 20110909
120900 1355N 05547W 8444 01548 0095 +159 +137 188020 021 056 017 03
120930 1355N 05545W 8414 01580 0099 +158 +131 174022 025 048 006 03
121000 1355N 05543W 8440 01553 0101 +152 +133 158021 028 047 011 00
121030 1354N 05542W 8422 01573 0106 +145 +129 137022 026 047 007 00
121100 1354N 05540W 8415 01579 0106 +148 +126 116026 032 044 004 03
121130 1353N 05539W 8424 01571 0111 +141 +123 111021 027 044 004 00
121200 1352N 05538W 8433 01561 0104 +150 +121 103021 023 045 004 00
121230 1352N 05537W 8424 01571 0105 +151 +119 095021 024 045 002 00
121300 1351N 05535W 8426 01566 0103 +155 +118 092020 023 045 006 00
121330 1350N 05534W 8413 01586 0107 +155 +115 085023 026 051 014 00
121400 1349N 05533W 8408 01591 0115 +141 +116 110016 024 055 021 03
121430 1348N 05532W 8420 01578 0123 +132 +116 070025 027 047 015 03
121500 1346N 05531W 8424 01577 0111 +148 +114 070019 026 047 010 00
121530 1345N 05531W 8417 01578 0110 +146 +113 064011 014 049 013 00
121600 1343N 05530W 8416 01579 0117 +136 +113 081012 016 051 017 00
121630 1342N 05529W 8418 01578 0113 +138 +116 115007 011 055 021 00
121700 1340N 05528W 8418 01577 0113 +141 +113 110006 008 052 016 00
121730 1339N 05528W 8431 01570 0115 +141 +116 171016 021 044 020 00
121800 1338N 05527W 8423 01577 0104 +162 +114 207022 024 046 005 00
121830 1336N 05526W 8432 01573 0110 +159 +110 211022 024 043 007 00
$$

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091228
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 20 20110909
121900 1335N 05525W 8413 01592 0109 +161 +108 211021 023 039 007 00
121930 1334N 05524W 8429 01574 0108 +168 +106 208017 019 033 002 00
122000 1332N 05523W 8430 01578 0111 +165 +111 211017 018 027 000 00
122030 1331N 05522W 8421 01585 0109 +169 +114 216019 019 020 001 00
122100 1330N 05521W 8418 01586 0108 +171 +115 217020 021 008 001 03
122130 1330N 05519W 8422 01582 0108 +170 +116 215022 023 019 001 03
122200 1331N 05518W 8428 01577 0106 +170 +117 217024 025 031 002 00
122230 1331N 05516W 8425 01579 0102 +170 +119 217027 027 036 008 00
122300 1332N 05514W 8427 01575 0101 +171 +123 219024 025 036 010 00
122330 1333N 05512W 8439 01564 0102 +168 +126 225022 024 040 010 00
122400 1334N 05511W 8425 01575 0108 +155 +124 223024 028 041 004 03
122430 1335N 05509W 8433 01571 0105 +162 +119 235023 029 040 006 03
122500 1337N 05509W 8426 01574 0106 +157 +131 195011 016 036 008 00
122530 1338N 05509W 8429 01569 0104 +156 +146 150011 014 038 017 03
122600 1340N 05509W 8428 01568 0115 +139 +137 168015 018 041 031 00
122630 1342N 05508W 8427 01566 0117 +131 +129 181022 024 051 034 00
122700 1344N 05508W 8438 01559 0117 +133 +128 164019 021 054 026 00
122730 1346N 05508W 8427 01569 0118 +134 +124 142019 020 050 027 00
122800 1347N 05508W 8431 01568 0121 +136 +121 096031 040 047 017 00
122830 1349N 05508W 8417 01583 0110 +156 +111 081041 042 044 012 00

[Gustywind]

Aric, here are some links, closer to the islands

Guadeloupe short range: http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/3h/bul_3h_guad.php

Martinique short range: http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/3h/bul_3h_mart.php

Otherwise, these a long range with a longer loop, mais it seems that the server is down:
http://www.cgste.mq/radar/Animation.asp

Nice job ouragans . Looks like Maria is strengthning, what do you think?

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091238
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 21 20110909
122900 1350N 05508W 8428 01577 0106 +167 +110 079039 039 040 008 00
122930 1352N 05508W 8425 01578 0103 +172 +109 073036 037 041 007 00
123000 1353N 05508W 8426 01578 0095 +188 +106 077031 033 037 008 00
123030 1355N 05508W 8420 01585 0094 +191 +104 093025 026 036 007 00
123100 1357N 05508W 8431 01573 0101 +180 +106 093026 027 035 006 00
123130 1358N 05508W 8421 01587 0104 +176 +106 101028 029 034 005 00
123200 1400N 05507W 8422 01586 0105 +175 +106 106029 030 031 004 00
123230 1402N 05507W 8429 01581 0110 +173 +107 105028 028 032 003 03
123300 1403N 05508W 8422 01587 0114 +168 +108 106029 030 /// /// 03
123330 1403N 05510W 8428 01580 0114 +168 +109 109028 028 /// /// 03
123400 1402N 05511W 8425 01583 0106 +176 +106 106028 028 031 004 03
123430 1400N 05511W 8423 01585 0107 +173 +107 101027 027 034 005 00
123500 1358N 05511W 8426 01578 0107 +171 +108 091026 027 038 007 00
123530 1357N 05511W 8422 01582 0110 +166 +107 086021 022 035 007 03
123600 1355N 05511W 8426 01578 0111 +161 +108 074022 023 038 006 00
123630 1353N 05511W 8420 01586 0108 +168 +107 069027 029 037 006 03
123700 1352N 05511W 8428 01580 0105 +175 +106 084033 035 042 004 00
123730 1350N 05510W 8422 01584 0108 +166 +106 090036 038 039 005 03
123800 1349N 05510W 8421 01583 0106 +165 +112 116021 026 040 007 00
123830 1347N 05510W 8435 01568 0115 +147 +116 133014 017 039 010 03

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091248
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 22 20110909
123900 1346N 05510W 8419 01576 0113 +143 +116 150011 014 046 016 00
123930 1344N 05510W 8427 01571 0113 +144 +117 176015 016 045 016 00
124000 1342N 05510W 8425 01573 0113 +144 +117 197015 016 046 013 00
124030 1341N 05510W 8416 01581 0114 +142 +117 219016 020 037 013 00
124100 1339N 05510W 8425 01574 0117 +139 +119 221014 019 037 013 00
124130 1338N 05510W 8423 01574 0117 +139 +120 258007 014 035 007 00
124200 1336N 05510W 8417 01581 0102 +159 +119 246017 019 033 003 00
124230 1335N 05510W 8426 01574 0099 +168 +122 235021 023 032 001 00
124300 1333N 05510W 8425 01575 0099 +170 +122 229025 026 030 000 00
124330 1332N 05510W 8425 01574 0098 +170 +122 230025 026 026 002 00
124400 1330N 05510W 8433 01572 0103 +167 +125 224026 028 024 002 03
124430 1329N 05511W 8430 01574 0102 +170 +123 219028 028 020 001 03
124500 1328N 05512W 8421 01580 0100 +173 +120 221025 026 022 000 00
124530 1328N 05513W 8432 01567 0094 +177 +128 226025 028 026 005 00
124600 1327N 05515W 8430 01569 0095 +176 +129 230027 030 028 002 03
124630 1327N 05515W 8430 01569 0097 +172 +126 223026 028 028 004 03
124700 1328N 05518W 8423 01576 0101 +170 +124 228025 025 027 002 00
124730 1329N 05519W 8419 01584 0101 +169 +126 224024 026 024 004 03
124800 1329N 05521W 8433 01572 0109 +160 +122 217023 024 024 002 00
124830 1329N 05522W 8422 01584 0110 +162 +118 214023 023 022 001 00

[dwsqos2]

What a vile mess this system is! Looks like the Euro might have been correct.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tobol.7uno]

Still not confident that there is enough to call this a depression...

[ouragans]

Aric, here are some links, closer to the islands

Guadeloupe short range: http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/3h/bul_3h_guad.php

Martinique short range: http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/3h/bul_3h_mart.php

Otherwise, these a long range with a longer loop, mais it seems that the server is down:
http://www.cgste.mq/radar/Animation.asp

Nice job ouragans . Looks like Maria is strengthning, what do you think?

It is, for sure! I would remove Yellow Cyclone Alert for Martinique and replace it by Orange Alert for "Heavy rains/Thunderstorms" and "Rough seas" by 11:30AM

But you know how they are slow in Martinique, they always put alerts when the threat is there not as a preventive measure

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091258
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 23 20110909
124900 1329N 05524W 8425 01581 0109 +164 +118 213022 023 019 000 03
124930 1328N 05525W 8425 01578 0107 +166 +116 210021 021 017 000 00
125000 1328N 05527W 8425 01581 0106 +169 +115 207020 021 014 000 00
125030 1327N 05528W 8425 01580 0106 +170 +118 211019 020 015 000 00
125100 1327N 05530W 8424 01580 0105 +170 +122 213018 018 014 000 00
125130 1326N 05531W 8428 01578 0105 +170 +126 216019 020 013 000 00
125200 1326N 05533W 8424 01580 0105 +169 +125 216019 020 015 000 00
125230 1325N 05534W 8424 01581 0105 +169 +125 214019 019 014 000 00
125300 1325N 05536W 8426 01576 0106 +170 +125 215019 019 015 000 03
125330 1324N 05537W 8424 01581 0106 +169 +125 211019 019 019 000 03
125400 1324N 05539W 8426 01579 0106 +167 +125 206020 020 018 000 00
125430 1323N 05540W 8424 01580 0105 +168 +123 206019 020 018 000 00
125500 1323N 05542W 8424 01580 0103 +172 +115 207018 018 020 000 03
125530 1322N 05543W 8425 01583 0106 +170 +119 204020 020 021 000 00
125600 1322N 05545W 8422 01582 0104 +170 +125 211019 019 020 000 00
125630 1321N 05546W 8425 01580 0105 +170 +126 214019 020 020 000 00
125700 1321N 05548W 8425 01580 0105 +170 +126 211020 020 018 000 03
125730 1320N 05549W 8423 01580 0106 +167 +125 211020 021 019 000 00
125800 1320N 05551W 8426 01578 0105 +170 +126 213019 020 018 000 00
125830 1319N 05552W 8425 01579 0104 +170 +124 217018 019 019 000 00

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091308
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 24 20110909
125900 1319N 05553W 8425 01581 0104 +171 +123 215021 023 020 001 00
125930 1318N 05555W 8425 01583 0104 +170 +124 210024 024 019 000 03
130000 1318N 05556W 8424 01578 0104 +170 +124 210023 024 020 000 00
130030 1317N 05558W 8425 01579 0102 +170 +123 211022 023 020 000 00
130100 1317N 05559W 8424 01578 0104 +167 +123 213021 021 022 000 00
130130 1316N 05601W 8424 01581 0104 +169 +124 209021 022 021 000 00
130200 1316N 05602W 8428 01574 0103 +169 +126 210022 023 021 000 00
130230 1315N 05604W 8425 01577 0102 +170 +123 211022 022 020 000 00
130300 1315N 05605W 8424 01580 0101 +172 +121 207022 022 020 000 03
130330 1316N 05607W 8425 01577 0097 +176 +117 209019 021 019 000 00
130400 1316N 05608W 8426 01576 0099 +175 +117 205019 020 020 000 00
130430 1316N 05610W 8421 01581 0099 +175 +120 198019 019 019 000 03
130500 1317N 05611W 8425 01575 0099 +174 +124 199021 021 023 006 00
130530 1319N 05613W 8428 01574 0100 +173 +125 206022 022 025 002 00
130600 1320N 05614W 8421 01581 0101 +170 +126 209019 020 022 000 00
130630 1321N 05615W 8421 01580 0100 +172 +134 205020 021 019 000 00
130700 1322N 05617W 8426 01574 0098 +171 +137 207020 021 018 000 03
130730 1323N 05618W 8425 01578 0098 +173 +136 205020 020 016 000 00
130800 1324N 05619W 8421 01579 0098 +170 +147 209019 019 020 001 00
130830 1326N 05620W 8428 01572 0097 +170 +152 209018 019 017 000 03

[Gustywind]

Aric, here are some links, closer to the islands

Guadeloupe short range: http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/3h/bul_3h_guad.php

Martinique short range: http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/3h/bul_3h_mart.php

Otherwise, these a long range with a longer loop, mais it seems that the server is down:
http://www.cgste.mq/radar/Animation.asp

EDIT: server is veeeeery slow. change the range in the bottom left box to 200km, then click 'go' for the loop

Here is a translation of your link:http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/3h/bul_3h_guad.php

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... h_guad.php

The time for the next few hours on the Guadeloupe

Weather-France Guadeloupe Hello!
06: 45 Pm, the level of vigilance is: ORANGE Cyclone for tropical storm "MARIA", be attentive to the evolution of the situation.
The first squalls lines of "MARIA" are localized 100 km southeast of Marie-Galante while the low pressure center is at within 600 km.
The next three hours, the showers are rare and briefs. The sea becomes strong in the Atlantic and in the channels with average lows of 2 to 3 meters.
These observations and immediate evolution will be updated to 0945AM.

[xironman]

I have got I have got 107.9 @12.68N 58.41W and 107.5 @13.71N 57.15W, I think it needs to build a good center before we can really say where it is going. Strongly agree with dwsqos2 on the shape this is in. Missed the 107.6 @13.96N 56.31W, what a mess.