ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[KWT]

Poor ole Nate really is battling against the dry air!

[clfenwi]

Per http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/nate2011/mission.html, the NOAA flights have been cancelled. WC-130 flights, though, should still be on. Scheduled for takeoff at 11:15 AM EDT.

[underthwx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg



visible shot of Nate...small storm..but he looks like he's getting better organized...





Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Air Force Met]

Poor ole Nate really is battling against the dry air!

Here is a shot of MIMIC. You can see very low PW's wrapping around the south side of the circulation are in the 1" range...which is VERY low for the tropics. That dry air is slowly getting pulled into the circulation. Plus there is lots of mid and upper level dry air. It's getting hit from all sides.

[robbielyn]

whats that blob in the upper gulf just a ull?

[underthwx]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 091440
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT NATE HAS A WELL-ORGANIZED
CLOUD PATTERN...HOWEVER DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION IN THAT PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION AND THE INFRARED PRESENTATION REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED ON A DVORAK CI-NUMBER OF
3.5 FROM TAFB AT 12Z. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING NATE LATER TODAY TO PROVIDE
INFORMATION ON THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE.

THE ENVIRONMENT IN TERMS OF SSTS AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...ACCORDING THE SHIPS MODEL
OUTPUT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR. OVERALL
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER THIS CYCLE...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD A BIT...BUT STILL
SHOWS NATE REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. NOTE THAT SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
POINT AND LANDFALL...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR BY 72 HOURS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO OR A BIT ABOVE THE LGEM MODEL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...NATE FINALLY APPEARS TO BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWEST AT AROUND 3 KT AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS
WEAKENED A LITTLE BIT. HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGE RESTRENGTHENING NORTH OF NATE IN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. BY 36 HOURS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED...WITH A
MOTION SOUTH OF DUE WEST POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER
LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AND DISSIPATE BEFORE
96 HOURS. HOWEVER A 96-HOUR POINT WAS INCLUDED TO SHOW THE SYSTEM
WEAKENING BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BEFORE DISSIPATION. THE
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN TERMS OF HEADING AND FORWARD
SPEED.

GIVEN THE FORECAST TIMING OF THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...A HURRICANE WATCH IS REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 20.3N 92.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 20.6N 93.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 20.8N 93.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 20.9N 94.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 20.8N 95.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 20.5N 98.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/1200Z 20.0N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

I can't help but think the NHC are a little under-estimating that dry air, as AFM its rather impressive and thats gonna really cause the system problems.

Still they are forecasting a hurricane, and a decent one at that...plus it does look abit better in the last few hours again.

[sittingduck]

whats that blob in the upper gulf just a ull?

I had the same question - but I think it is associated with the stationary front that has been sitting on us for days

[Macrocane]

The cloud pattern is impressive, if you look at visible imagery you can think it's a well organized system but on IR it looks kind of pathetic, I guess it's a question of time for convection to increase again but it will be going back and forth with it if Nate continues to eat the dry air.

[underthwx]

looks like Nate is moving North now at the present time on vis. loop?......



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[wxman57]

It also looks as though the center is now south of 20N on visible imagery. Maybe 19.9N/92.8W. Really impressive banding features now, just lacks deep convection. I do think it'll become a hurricane later today. Dry air will be a "problem" for it, though.

[artist]

the Nate flight is in the air. Can someone post it, please?

[craptacular]

Next plane en route to Nate. I can't stay to post obs consistently. Anyone looking to take this?

URNT15 KNHC 091533
AF305 0415A NATE HDOB 00 20110909
152130 2753N 09002W 4099 07368 0361 -160 -210 250024 025 /// /// 03
152200 2751N 09002W 4094 07384 0362 -160 -210 250024 024 /// /// 03
152230 2748N 09002W 4097 07377 0363 -158 -210 250023 024 /// /// 03
152300 2745N 09001W 4095 07379 0364 -158 -210 253022 022 /// /// 03
152330 2743N 09001W 4098 07374 0365 -160 -210 254022 022 /// /// 03
152400 2740N 09001W 4097 07380 0365 -157 -209 252022 023 /// /// 03
152430 2738N 09001W 4097 07381 0365 -158 -209 254024 024 /// /// 03
152500 2735N 09001W 4097 07385 0366 -160 -209 252023 024 /// /// 03
152530 2732N 09001W 4095 07383 0366 -160 -209 249022 022 013 001 03
152600 2730N 09001W 4096 07378 0365 -160 -208 248023 024 014 001 00
152630 2727N 09000W 4095 07381 0365 -159 -209 248024 024 013 000 00
152700 2725N 09000W 4098 07379 0365 -160 -209 244024 024 013 000 00
152730 2722N 09000W 4096 07384 0365 -159 -209 245024 024 014 000 00
152800 2719N 09000W 4095 07380 0364 -156 -209 245025 025 012 000 00
152830 2717N 09000W 4096 07383 0364 -155 -209 247024 024 011 000 03
152900 2714N 09000W 4096 07379 0364 -155 -209 252024 024 012 000 00
152930 2712N 09000W 4098 07371 0360 -152 -209 250024 024 009 001 00
153000 2709N 08959W 4097 07373 0357 -154 -208 245025 025 009 001 00
153030 2706N 08959W 4095 07370 0356 -150 -208 244025 025 007 001 00
153100 2704N 08959W 4097 07373 0360 -150 -207 246025 025 009 000 00

[craptacular]

URNT15 KNHC 091541
AF305 0415A NATE HDOB 01 20110909
153130 2701N 08959W 4096 07380 0363 -150 -207 242024 025 011 000 00
153200 2659N 08959W 4097 07374 0361 -148 -206 242024 025 009 001 00
153230 2656N 08959W 4096 07379 0363 -145 -206 241024 024 009 001 00
153300 2653N 08958W 4095 07383 0365 -144 -205 240023 024 010 001 00
153330 2651N 08958W 4097 07380 0366 -141 -204 235023 023 014 000 00
153400 2648N 08958W 4097 07383 0368 -141 -203 232023 023 014 001 00
153430 2646N 08958W 4097 07381 0370 -144 -202 233023 023 015 000 00
153500 2643N 08958W 4095 07384 0370 -143 -201 233023 024 013 000 00
153530 2641N 08958W 4097 07387 0372 -145 -201 232024 024 016 000 00
153600 2638N 08958W 4097 07386 0372 -149 -200 229023 023 015 001 00
153630 2635N 08957W 4095 07392 0373 -150 -200 227021 022 016 000 00
153700 2633N 08957W 4096 07391 0374 -150 -200 232021 021 018 000 00
153730 2630N 08957W 4097 07392 0374 -149 -201 235021 021 016 000 00
153800 2628N 08957W 4097 07391 0374 -147 -201 239021 022 016 001 00
153830 2625N 08957W 4097 07397 0376 -147 -201 241020 021 018 001 00
153900 2622N 08957W 4095 07391 0376 -146 -201 249021 022 018 001 00
153930 2620N 08957W 4097 07392 0377 -148 -200 247019 020 020 000 03
154000 2617N 08956W 4098 07394 0378 -150 -200 243018 019 019 001 00
154030 2615N 08956W 4097 07398 0379 -147 -201 235018 019 019 001 00
154100 2612N 08956W 4096 07396 0379 -149 -201 235017 017 021 000 00

[craptacular]

I've posted the first couple for Nate, but can't promise to be consistently available (nor do the Google Earth maps). So, if someone else wants to take it, please do.

[craptacular]

URNT15 KNHC 091551
AF305 0415A NATE HDOB 02 20110909
154130 2609N 08956W 4095 07393 0380 -150 -201 234016 017 021 001 00
154200 2607N 08956W 4101 07390 0382 -147 -202 231015 017 021 001 00
154230 2604N 08956W 4097 07395 0381 -145 -202 237017 018 021 001 03
154300 2602N 08956W 4095 07397 0381 -143 -202 235017 018 022 001 00
154330 2559N 08955W 4095 07397 0381 -150 -202 235013 014 022 000 00
154400 2556N 08955W 4097 07392 0381 -150 -201 239013 013 022 001 00
154430 2554N 08955W 4097 07397 0384 -150 -202 246012 012 022 001 00
154500 2551N 08955W 4097 07403 0383 -150 -202 241012 013 023 001 00
154530 2548N 08955W 4097 07401 0384 -150 -202 236012 012 023 001 00
154600 2546N 08955W 4095 07398 0384 -150 -202 242012 013 026 002 00
154630 2543N 08955W 4097 07401 0384 -148 -202 236013 015 025 000 00
154700 2541N 08954W 4095 07395 0384 -149 -202 239015 016 023 001 00
154730 2538N 08954W 4097 07400 0384 -150 -202 239018 018 023 001 00
154800 2535N 08954W 4095 07399 0386 -154 -203 234019 021 021 001 00
154830 2533N 08954W 4095 07404 0384 -155 -203 227021 021 022 001 03
154900 2530N 08954W 4097 07397 0384 -156 -204 226020 021 023 001 00
154930 2528N 08954W 4097 07399 0384 -155 -205 231019 020 023 001 00
155000 2525N 08954W 4095 07400 0386 -155 -206 235019 019 024 002 00
155030 2522N 08953W 4095 07401 0384 -150 -207 247018 018 025 001 00
155100 2520N 08953W 4095 07398 0382 -153 -207 240018 018 019 001 00

[underthwx]

wxman57...for the sake of discussion...do you think the cone may shift slightly to the right during the day...if Nate can continue a N..or NNW motion?...



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[craptacular]

URNT15 KNHC 091601
AF305 0415A NATE HDOB 03 20110909
155130 2517N 08953W 4095 07400 0383 -155 -206 236018 018 018 001 00
155200 2515N 08953W 4098 07396 0382 -155 -207 244017 017 018 001 00
155230 2512N 08953W 4096 07397 0382 -154 -207 249016 017 017 001 00
155300 2509N 08953W 4095 07396 0383 -152 -208 251016 016 018 001 00
155330 2507N 08953W 4097 07396 0382 -155 -208 242016 016 016 001 00
155400 2504N 08953W 4097 07398 0384 -155 -209 232016 016 018 000 00
155430 2502N 08953W 4096 07400 0384 -154 -209 224017 017 017 001 00
155500 2459N 08953W 4096 07400 0384 -149 -209 230016 016 024 003 00
155530 2456N 08953W 4097 07397 0384 -150 -209 228015 016 022 006 00
155600 2454N 08954W 4097 07400 0386 -150 -208 225016 017 027 003 03
155630 2451N 08954W 4095 07400 0388 -150 -207 222014 015 023 008 03
155700 2449N 08953W 4098 07399 0386 -147 -206 222016 016 029 003 00
155730 2446N 08953W 4095 07400 0386 -153 -205 232014 015 020 000 00
155800 2444N 08952W 4097 07396 0385 -152 -203 231015 015 018 001 00
155830 2441N 08952W 4095 07405 0387 -154 -202 234015 016 020 001 03
155900 2438N 08951W 4096 07407 0386 -154 -202 240017 018 020 001 00
155930 2436N 08951W 4097 07377 0369 -154 -201 247017 017 020 000 00
160000 2433N 08951W 4095 07386 0371 -155 -200 248017 018 017 001 00
160030 2431N 08951W 4097 07391 0380 -152 -200 236014 016 016 001 00
160100 2428N 08950W 4096 07393 0379 -150 -199 232013 014 011 001 00

[artist]

obs 01-03

[craptacular]

URNT15 KNHC 091611
AF305 0415A NATE HDOB 04 20110909
160130 2425N 08950W 4097 07395 0378 -150 -199 238014 014 007 001 00
160200 2423N 08950W 4096 07388 0375 -150 -198 237014 014 009 001 03
160230 2420N 08950W 4097 07396 0377 -153 -198 236014 014 003 002 03
160300 2418N 08950W 4096 07394 0379 -155 -199 232014 015 010 001 03
160330 2415N 08950W 4095 07397 0381 -150 -199 237014 014 008 002 03
160400 2412N 08950W 4097 07396 0383 -147 -199 236015 016 010 002 03
160430 2410N 08949W 4097 07396 0384 -146 -200 234015 015 012 001 00
160500 2407N 08949W 4095 07401 0386 -146 -200 233015 016 009 002 03
160530 2404N 08949W 4098 07394 0387 -148 -200 236015 016 012 001 00
160600 2402N 08949W 4096 07404 0388 -149 -200 235015 015 010 001 00
160630 2359N 08949W 4095 07407 0388 -148 -200 235014 015 014 001 00
160700 2357N 08949W 4094 07413 0390 -147 -200 236014 014 013 001 03
160730 2354N 08949W 4097 07400 0389 -150 -200 236013 014 /// /// 03
160800 2352N 08950W 4099 07401 0390 -152 -200 231014 014 016 000 00
160830 2349N 08952W 4098 07401 0390 -146 -200 232012 012 015 000 00
160900 2347N 08953W 4095 07407 0391 -145 -200 235012 012 011 002 00
160930 2345N 08954W 4097 07407 0392 -151 -200 235013 014 017 000 00
161000 2343N 08955W 4096 07410 0392 -153 -200 235013 014 018 001 00
161030 2340N 08957W 4097 07403 0392 -153 -200 227012 013 016 001 00
161100 2338N 08958W 4095 07409 0390 -155 -200 234011 012 015 001 00