ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

no they do not. but for some reason they tend to spend less flight resources on storms when they are in this location, happens all the time.

Ahhhh..... why does that doesn't surprise me at all? Let's leave it at that.

Yes,lets leave it there please.

[painkillerr]

no they do not. but for some reason they tend to spend less flight resources on storms when they are in this location, happens all the time.

Ahhhh..... why does that doesn't surprise me at all? Let's leave it at that.

Yes,lets leave it there please.

very smart Luis!!!!

[painkillerr]

Back to Maria.... any real chance that she will miss the islands at this point? PR & VI?

[Tropicswatcher]

Satellite pictures show that the mid level center is losing the heavy convection. Let's see if a new one can reform closer to the low level one. And not the other way around!

[SouthDadeFish]

Maria is a very large storm:

[gatorcane]

The pattern looks alot like and end-of-October pattern out there if you ask me. Large trough along the Eastern seaboard, with a low-riding Cape Verde system in the Eastern Caribbean getting yanked north in the eastern Caribbean.

Maybe we will see an end to the rainy season here in Florida a couple of weeks early this year also?

[Fego]

Satellite pictures show that the mid level center is losing the heavy convection. Let's see if a new one can reform closer to the low level one. And not the other way around!

As Maria is behaving... who knows.

[Tropicswatcher]

Satellite pictures show that the mid level center is losing the heavy convection. Let's see if a new one can reform closer to the low level one. And not the other way around!

As Maria is behaving... who knows.

Long night ahead!!
Will have a better picture when the next recon checks the system!

[floridasun78]

so could see new ball game with maria?

[EDR1222]

There was definitely something much different going on with the weather patterns back in the 1920s through the 1940's with regard to long tracking Cape Verde Systems and the east coast of Florida.

It is interesting to look at the latest model runs for Maria....although she is further south, she could end up recurving very close to where Katia recurved. Hopefully she stays weak as she moves through the eastern Caribbean and doesn't cause too many problems down there.

[SuperLikeNintendo]

Double edged sword. If she stays week she could continue her march west and gather later. Anyone's guess from there. Alot could still happen.

[AJC3]

Double edged sword. If she stays week she could continue her march west and gather later. Anyone's guess from there. Alot could still happen.

There really isn't any support for Maria going much farther west than 70-72W, even as a open wave. There isn't going to be much of a surface to 700 MB ridge over the westernmost Atlantic in another 3-4 days to steer even the shallowest of features westward.

[Nimbus]

She has had that little trough just to her northwest the last few days. Looks like it is ventilating and helping steer Maria northwest now. If that big upper level low over the midwest stays anchored for a couple days it will keep a trough off the US east coast. You couldn't ask for a better track than the latest model runs that puts Puerto Rico on the weak side of the storm then shoots her north well off the Conus.

[gatorcane]

She has had that little trough just to her northwest the last few days. Looks like it is ventilating and helping steer Maria northwest now. If that big upper level low over the midwest stays anchored for a couple days it will keep a trough off the US east coast. You couldn't ask for a better track than the latest model runs that puts Puerto Rico on the weak side of the storm then shoots her north well off the Conus.

Judging by the lack of members online right now, certainly you know that there are no imminent threats out there.

[artist]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 1090912!!/

[floridasun78]

so high weakness is east of bahamas?

[cycloneye]

Plane just departed. Artist,you want to post the obs?

URNT15 KNHC 092223
AF307 0314A MARIA HDOB 01 20110909
221330 1742N 06448W 0119 ///// //// +285 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
221400 1742N 06448W 0118 ///// //// +285 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
221430 1742N 06448W 0116 ///// //// +284 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
221500 1742N 06448W 0114 ///// //// +280 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
221530 1742N 06448W 0112 ///// //// +280 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
221600 1742N 06449W 0109 ///// //// +280 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
221630 1742N 06449W 0105 ///// //// +280 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
221700 1742N 06449W 0101 ///// //// +280 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
221730 1742N 06449W 0103 ///// //// +278 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
221800 1742N 06449W 0102 ///// //// +274 //// 061001 002 /// /// 25
221830 1742N 06448W 0106 ///// //// +274 //// 057010 015 /// /// 25
221900 1742N 06447W 9920 00165 //// +266 //// 051021 024 /// /// 05
221930 1742N 06446W 9684 00385 //// +246 //// 051022 023 /// /// 05
222000 1741N 06445W 9295 00753 //// +218 //// 058023 024 /// /// 05
222030 1739N 06443W 8907 01136 //// +193 //// 066023 024 /// /// 05
222100 1738N 06442W 8593 01428 //// +179 //// 069024 026 /// /// 05
222130 1737N 06441W 8274 01754 0116 +168 +165 069027 027 /// /// 03
222200 1736N 06440W 7992 02052 0118 +153 +144 068029 029 /// /// 03
222230 1735N 06439W 7742 02310 0115 +135 //// 070028 029 /// /// 05
222300 1735N 06438W 7525 02552 //// +124 //// 069028 028 /// /// 05

[msbee]

Now more distance from my house.

The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.1N, 65.4W or about 58.5 miles (94.2 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 1 day, 15 hours and 56 minutes from now (Sunday, September 11 at 8:48AM AST).

Closer to my house Luis

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 17.6N, 63.4W or about 34.3 miles (55.1 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 1 day, 1 hours and 58 minutes from now (Saturday, September 10 at 8:36PM AST).

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 092233
AF307 0314A MARIA HDOB 02 20110909
222330 1734N 06436W 7308 02800 //// +110 //// 070027 028 /// /// 05
222400 1734N 06435W 7093 03048 //// +092 //// 074027 028 /// /// 05
222430 1733N 06433W 6887 03297 0116 +077 //// 072026 027 /// /// 05
222500 1732N 06432W 6709 03514 //// +060 //// 071022 024 /// /// 05
222530 1732N 06430W 6537 03727 //// +046 //// 072018 019 /// /// 05
222600 1731N 06429W 6370 03939 0128 +034 //// 071018 019 /// /// 05
222630 1731N 06427W 6201 04159 0127 +022 +012 081018 019 /// /// 03
222700 1730N 06426W 6051 04362 0112 +023 -082 090018 019 /// /// 03
222730 1730N 06424W 5924 04507 0077 +019 -095 091015 017 /// /// 03
222800 1729N 06422W 5784 04698 0069 +009 -055 097016 017 /// /// 03
222830 1729N 06421W 5661 04873 0078 -004 -066 092015 016 /// /// 03
222900 1728N 06419W 5557 05039 0096 -014 -119 084011 013 /// /// 03
222930 1728N 06417W 5450 05191 0260 -026 -112 080010 010 /// /// 03
223000 1727N 06415W 5332 05368 0269 -039 -123 081012 012 /// /// 03
223030 1727N 06413W 5265 05463 0273 -047 -127 092012 013 /// /// 03
223100 1726N 06411W 5262 05470 0273 -048 -117 095013 014 /// /// 03
223130 1726N 06409W 5265 05465 0273 -045 -112 097014 014 /// /// 03
223200 1725N 06407W 5271 05457 0274 -050 -146 086013 013 /// /// 03
223230 1725N 06405W 5266 05463 0274 -050 -145 084013 013 /// /// 03
223300 1724N 06402W 5263 05471 0274 -054 -162 089012 013 /// /// 03

[cycloneye]

Plane is on it's way towards Maria.