ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

...CENTER OF MARIA PASSING NORTH OF BARBADOS AND MOVING TOWARD THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 59.1W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM N OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[fci]

2004 was a rare event for Florida. It may be another 200 years for something like that to happen. To get a Cape Verde system to hit the United States, even Florida, is generally quite difficult as the ridging must be setup just right for that to happen, and most of the time there are sufficient number of mid-continental troughs to break it down just enough to allow recurvature or the ridging is there but there is too much shear so the system doesn't develop and only impacts as a Tropical wave.. Of course some sneak through like Andrew....but generally quite rare. After the 1940s...not many MAJOR hurricane impacted Florida when you think about it.

Most of Florida's systems hit from the south or southwest (e.g. Wilma, Fay...etc), not the east anyway. Probably time to look to the Western/Central Caribbean if there are going to be any Florida threats this season...

I seem to remember as a kid growing up that we rarely got a Hurricane strike here in SE Florida.
It seemed very common that storms would do just what they are doing this season, recurve by the Bahamas.
More often, it seemed; that they would hit or brush the outer banks on their way out.
Or they would travel through the Carib. cross Western Cuba or the Yucatan and be a GOM threat.
Those instances, Betsy, Cleo, David Andrew,Frances, Jeanne, Katrina; seemed to be more the exception than the rule.

I am speaking off the cuff of my recollections. I've not gone through and looked at specific years and history just what I remember. I do specifically remember when I was growing up that I was quite a wishcaster and loved getting struck by storms.
That was of course, until I became an adult, a homeowner and financially responsible which now makes a hurricane strike just the opposite a thrill. I wishcast them away!!!

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 092349
AF307 0314A MARIA HDOB 06 20110909
234000 1459N 06030W 8430 01566 0093 +190 -068 043007 007 009 000 00
234030 1458N 06028W 8428 01569 0093 +190 -062 047007 008 012 000 03
234100 1457N 06027W 8428 01572 0093 +190 -059 046007 008 014 000 03
234130 1456N 06025W 8428 01571 0093 +190 -056 037009 010 013 000 00
234200 1455N 06023W 8429 01568 0091 +191 -053 028009 009 009 000 00
234230 1453N 06022W 8431 01567 0090 +192 -053 035009 009 011 000 00
234300 1452N 06020W 8431 01567 0090 +191 -055 039008 009 010 000 00
234330 1451N 06019W 8428 01568 0090 +191 -054 040009 010 010 000 00
234400 1450N 06017W 8430 01566 0089 +194 -052 043009 009 013 000 00
234430 1448N 06016W 8430 01566 0089 +195 -050 053009 010 015 000 03
234500 1447N 06014W 8429 01565 0088 +195 -048 050008 009 017 000 03
234530 1446N 06013W 8429 01568 0090 +195 -047 064007 008 018 000 05
234600 1445N 06011W 8432 01566 //// +198 //// 061008 008 018 000 05
234630 1444N 06010W 8431 01565 //// +200 //// 061008 008 019 000 01
234700 1442N 06008W 8428 01568 //// +184 //// 069009 011 022 000 01
234730 1441N 06007W 8432 01562 //// +170 //// 073010 013 025 002 01
234800 1440N 06005W 8427 01567 //// +153 //// 055009 011 026 003 05
234830 1439N 06004W 8426 01567 //// +165 //// 056011 013 025 001 01
234900 1438N 06002W 8431 01561 //// +156 //// 033011 014 027 003 01
234930 1436N 06001W 8432 01561 //// +169 //// 025009 010 024 001 01

[Adoquín]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

...CENTER OF MARIA PASSING NORTH OF BARBADOS AND MOVING TOWARD THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 59.1W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM N OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Luis that is not based on recon but observation, right? Martinique was reporting NE winds light not a long time ago, by the way. 6 pm. Castries clearly on the southern side of the circulation as per the wind direction around that time which is interesting because the islands are adjacent Very windy here in San Juan, by comparison earlier than with Irene, which I guess is because Irene was much smaller in windfield. foward speed a concern re intensity.

[AJC3]

2004 was a rare event for Florida. It may be another 200 years for something like that to happen. To get a Cape Verde system to hit the United States, even Florida, is generally quite difficult as the ridging must be setup just right for that to happen, and most of the time there are sufficient number of mid-continental troughs to break it down just enough to allow recurvature or the ridging is there but there is too much shear so the system doesn't develop and only impacts as a Tropical wave.. Of course some sneak through like Andrew....but generally quite rare. After the 1940s...not many MAJOR hurricane impacted Florida when you think about it.

Most of Florida's systems hit from the south or southwest (e.g. Wilma, Fay...etc), not the east anyway. Probably time to look to the Western/Central Caribbean if there are going to be any Florida threats this season...

I seem to remember as a kid growing up that we rarely got a Hurricane strike here in SE Florida.
It seemed very common that storms would do just what they are doing this season, recurve by the Bahamas.
More often, it seemed; that they would hit or brush the outer banks on their way out.
Or they would travel through the Carib. cross Western Cuba or the Yucatan and be a GOM threat.
Those instances, Betsy, Cleo, David Andrew,Frances, Jeanne, Katrina; seemed to be more the exception than the rule.

I am speaking off the cuff of my recollections. I've not gone through and looked at specific years and history just what I remember. I do specifically remember when I was growing up that I was quite a wonderful forecaster and loved getting struck by storms.
That was of course, until I became an adult, a homeowner and financially responsible which now makes a hurricane strike just the opposite a thrill. I wishcast them away!!!

You would enjoy reading these two books:

Florida's Hurricane History by Jay Barnes
http://www.amazon.com/Floridas-Hurrican ... 0807847488

Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms: JOHN M. WILLIAMS with Iver Duedall
http://www.amazon.com/Florida-Hurricane ... pd_sim_b_1

The second text has a really good breakdown of T.C. tracks around Florida by decade.

[cycloneye]

Well,I dont know what has occured, but no more data has been out since for over 25 minutes.

[cycloneye]

Obs 7-8 missing.

URNT15 KNHC 100016
AF307 0314A MARIA HDOB 09 20110910
000330 1422N 05917W 8429 01561 //// +165 //// 081004 005 /// /// 05
000400 1422N 05917W 8429 01561 //// +165 //// 081004 005 /// /// 05
000430 1422N 05917W 8429 01561 //// +165 //// 081004 005 /// /// 05
000500 1422N 05917W 8429 01561 //// +165 //// 081004 005 /// /// 05
000530 1422N 05917W 8429 01561 //// +165 //// 081004 005 /// /// 05
000600 1422N 05917W 8429 01561 //// +165 //// 081004 005 /// /// 05
000630 1422N 05917W 8429 01561 //// +165 //// 081004 005 /// /// 05
000700 1406N 05902W 8429 01562 //// +169 //// 172003 005 /// /// 05
000730 1405N 05901W 8429 01563 //// +175 //// 189004 005 /// /// 05
000800 1403N 05859W 8431 01561 //// +174 //// 210009 010 /// /// 05
000830 1402N 05858W 8427 01563 //// +175 //// 223010 011 /// /// 05
000900 1401N 05857W 8429 01562 //// +179 //// 223011 011 /// /// 05
000930 1359N 05856W 8429 01564 //// +184 //// 222012 013 /// /// 05
001000 1358N 05854W 8430 01561 //// +185 //// 223013 014 /// /// 05
001030 1356N 05853W 8429 01560 //// +189 //// 228013 013 /// /// 05
001100 1355N 05852W 8429 01563 //// +190 //// 231012 012 /// /// 05
001130 1353N 05850W 8428 01563 //// +190 //// 225012 013 /// /// 05
001200 1352N 05849W 8432 01560 //// +191 //// 219012 013 /// /// 05
001230 1352N 05849W 8432 01560 //// +191 //// 219012 013 /// /// 05
001300 1352N 05849W 8432 01560 //// +191 //// 219012 013 /// /// 05

[Adoquín]

From the discussion at 8 pm
Atlantic Ocean...

Tropical Storm Maria...and the tropical wave are the
dominant weather producers in the tropical Atlantic. A
dissipating stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31n75w
to 28n80w. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front.
Further E...a surface trough broke off from the northern extent
of the tropical wave that is presently over the central
Caribbean and extends near the Bahamas from 27n72w to 21n73w.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm E of the trough axis. The
tail end of a cold front has entered the central Atlantic near
32n30w to 30n49w. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
front. A 1020 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near
33n52w. Another 1018 mb high is over the E Atlantic near
27n31w.

For additional information please visit
http://www.Hurricanes.Gov/marine

$$
Formosa

[Adoquín]

What an unfortunate series of events.

[cycloneye]

Plenty of SW winds below 14N-and around 58W.

URNT15 KNHC 100023
AF307 0314A MARIA HDOB 10 20110910
001330 1352N 05849W 8432 01560 //// +191 //// 219012 013 /// /// 05
001400 1352N 05849W 8432 01560 //// +189 //// 221013 015 /// /// 05
001430 1345N 05843W 8432 01564 //// +188 //// 222015 015 /// /// 05
001500 1343N 05841W 8429 01567 //// +189 //// 228016 016 /// /// 05
001530 1342N 05840W 8432 01562 //// +185 //// 232014 014 /// /// 05
001600 1340N 05839W 8429 01564 //// +185 //// 228013 013 /// /// 05
001630 1339N 05837W 8430 01562 //// +185 //// 224013 013 /// /// 05
001700 1337N 05836W 8430 01560 //// +185 //// 225013 013 /// /// 05
001730 1336N 05835W 8430 01563 //// +185 //// 226012 013 /// /// 05
001800 1335N 05834W 8429 01566 //// +189 //// 229011 012 /// /// 05
001830 1333N 05832W 8434 01557 //// +191 //// 239010 011 /// /// 05
001900 1332N 05831W 8432 01563 //// +188 //// 252012 013 /// /// 05
001930 1330N 05830W 8426 01564 //// +180 //// 251013 014 /// /// 05
002000 1329N 05828W 8430 01562 //// +180 //// 245014 014 /// /// 05
002030 1327N 05827W 8429 01562 //// +180 //// 245015 016 /// /// 05
002100 1326N 05826W 8430 01562 //// +179 //// 238015 016 /// /// 05
002130 1324N 05824W 8430 01563 //// +175 //// 237016 017 /// /// 05
002200 1323N 05823W 8430 01563 //// +178 //// 237015 017 /// /// 05
002230 1321N 05822W 8430 01562 //// +180 //// 234016 017 /// /// 05
002300 1320N 05820W 8430 01564 //// +175 //// 231016 017 /// /// 05
$$

[cycloneye]

Data is again being released. Plane is below 14N and around 58.2 finding SW winds.

[AJC3]

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 100033
AF307 0314A MARIA HDOB 11 20110910
002330 1318N 05819W 8430 01563 //// +174 //// 230017 018 /// /// 05
002400 1317N 05818W 8429 01565 //// +173 //// 242015 016 /// /// 05
002430 1315N 05816W 8433 01560 //// +175 //// 234017 017 /// /// 05
002500 1314N 05815W 8424 01570 //// +170 //// 233017 018 /// /// 05
002530 1313N 05814W 8430 01572 //// +168 //// 230017 018 /// /// 05
002600 1312N 05812W 8441 01558 //// +176 //// 222016 016 /// /// 05
002630 1314N 05811W 8429 01561 //// +174 //// 223016 016 /// /// 05
002700 1314N 05811W 8429 01561 //// +170 //// 220016 016 /// /// 05
002730 1316N 05808W 8432 01555 //// +169 //// 218016 017 /// /// 05
002800 1317N 05807W 8431 01559 //// +166 //// 218013 015 /// /// 05
002830 1319N 05806W 8430 01560 //// +174 //// 216013 014 /// /// 05
002900 1321N 05806W 8430 01558 //// +174 //// 216014 014 /// /// 05
002930 1322N 05806W 8432 01559 //// +174 //// 216014 014 000 000 05
003000 1324N 05807W 8429 01560 //// +175 //// 209013 014 000 000 05
003030 1326N 05807W 8430 01558 //// +175 //// 208013 013 /// /// 05
003100 1328N 05807W 8430 01559 //// +176 //// 209013 013 /// /// 05
003130 1329N 05807W 8430 01560 //// +179 //// 206014 014 /// /// 05
003200 1331N 05807W 8428 01562 //// +178 //// 205014 014 /// /// 05
003230 1333N 05807W 8430 01563 //// +175 //// 201013 013 /// /// 05
003300 1335N 05807W 8429 01560 //// +179 //// 198013 014 /// /// 05
$$

[Gustywind]

METEO. Maria crosses the Guadeloupe tonight
franceantilles.fr09.09.2011
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 137700.php

The storm tropical Maria should cross the Caribbean arc passing on Guadeloupe the next night between 10PM and 3 AM before off the coasts of the islands of the North, on the morning of Saturday. The stormy rains will begin in early evening and will intensify during night. They persist in the day on Saturday. The wind will gradually strengthen to reach the next night storm forces. Cyclonic swell if is already established with 4 to 6 meters. Hollow sea should still grow in the next hours, the hollow max up to 9 meters during night.

At 5PM, the storm tropical Maria was located approximately 350 km South-East of Guadeloupe. It should pass through the Caribbean arc passing on Guadeloupe the next night between 10PM to 3 AM. Cyclonic swell is already established with hollow 4-6 meters maximum. The sea is expected to grow over the next hours and heights of waves on the Atlantic will be included between 4.50 meters and 5 meters in the night. Max hollows can reach 9 meters during night. The coast under the wind, with average dips to 2 m in a sector South swell will be particularly exposed end of the night.
Wind, already established more than 60 km/h on la Désirade, will gradually strengthen to reach forces storm (60 to 80 km/h with gusts locally to over 100 km/h) on the next night. At the end of the night, he will guide to sector south, then southeast.
The stormy rains will begin in early evening and will intensify during night. They persist in the day on Saturday. Accumulations expected will be substantial and are succeptibles to cause flooding.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 14, 2011091000, , BEST, 0, 149N, 591W, 40, 1004, TS

[AJC3]

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 100043
AF307 0314A MARIA HDOB 12 20110910
003330 1336N 05807W 8429 01560 //// +178 //// 195014 015 /// /// 05
003400 1338N 05808W 8429 01561 //// +179 //// 194014 014 001 000 05
003430 1340N 05808W 8430 01561 //// +180 //// 194014 015 /// /// 05
003500 1342N 05808W 8429 01564 //// +180 //// 191015 015 001 000 05
003530 1343N 05808W 8429 01563 //// +176 //// 189015 015 001 000 05
003600 1345N 05808W 8430 01561 //// +175 //// 186015 016 /// /// 05
003630 1347N 05808W 8429 01561 //// +175 //// 185015 016 /// /// 05
003700 1349N 05808W 8430 01560 //// +173 //// 179015 015 /// /// 05
003730 1351N 05808W 8429 01561 //// +175 //// 184015 016 /// /// 05
003800 1352N 05809W 8428 01564 //// +175 //// 187017 017 /// /// 05
003830 1354N 05809W 8429 01565 //// +174 //// 184016 017 /// /// 05
003900 1356N 05809W 8430 01562 //// +170 //// 178015 015 003 000 05
003930 1358N 05809W 8428 01561 //// +169 //// 182016 016 /// /// 05
004000 1400N 05809W 8433 01557 //// +167 //// 189017 017 002 000 05
004030 1401N 05809W 8428 01563 //// +170 //// 186018 019 /// /// 05
004100 1403N 05809W 8429 01562 //// +168 //// 184019 020 /// /// 05
004130 1405N 05809W 8429 01562 //// +168 //// 186017 018 /// /// 05
004200 1407N 05809W 8433 01559 //// +166 //// 184016 016 003 001 05
004230 1408N 05810W 8429 01562 //// +170 //// 189018 019 003 000 05
004300 1410N 05810W 8429 01560 //// +176 //// 194020 020 /// /// 05
$$

[AJC3]

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 100059
AF307 0314A MARIA HDOB 13 20110910
004330 1412N 05810W 8429 01561 //// +177 //// 195020 021 /// /// 05
004400 1414N 05810W 8429 01561 //// +175 //// 202019 020 /// /// 05
004430 1416N 05810W 8432 01560 //// +176 //// 204020 020 /// /// 05
004500 1417N 05810W 8428 01561 //// +180 //// 210019 020 003 000 05
004530 1419N 05810W 8429 01560 //// +179 //// 208020 020 001 000 05
004600 1421N 05810W 8430 01559 //// +180 //// 208019 019 002 000 05
004630 1423N 05811W 8430 01559 //// +180 //// 207019 019 /// /// 05
004700 1425N 05811W 8430 01559 //// +177 //// 203017 018 000 000 05
004730 1426N 05811W 8429 01557 //// +170 //// 197015 015 000 000 05
004800 1428N 05811W 8431 01556 //// +163 //// 182014 014 001 000 05
004830 1430N 05811W 8431 01554 //// +160 //// 176014 014 000 000 05
004900 1432N 05811W 8430 01559 //// +160 //// 175014 015 /// /// 05
004930 1434N 05811W 8433 01557 //// +160 //// 175014 014 /// /// 05
005000 1435N 05811W 8428 01561 //// +160 //// 179015 015 /// /// 05
005030 1437N 05812W 8432 01557 //// +160 //// 175014 014 /// /// 05
005100 1439N 05812W 8430 01556 //// +160 //// 178014 014 /// /// 05
005130 1441N 05812W 8428 01562 //// +162 //// 170015 015 /// /// 05
005200 1441N 05812W 8428 01562 //// +164 //// 169015 016 /// /// 05
005230 1441N 05812W 8428 01562 //// +164 //// 169015 016 /// /// 05
005300 1441N 05812W 8428 01562 //// +164 //// 169015 016 /// /// 05

[tobol.7uno]

Maria entering radar range.