ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 101422
AF308 0414A MARIA HDOB 11 20110910
141230 1602N 06039W 9582 00446 0082 +227 +215 187016 016 011 001 01
141300 1602N 06041W 9580 00447 0082 +223 +205 185014 015 012 000 01
141330 1602N 06043W 9581 00446 0082 +224 +201 186013 013 012 000 01
141400 1602N 06044W 9581 00446 0081 +223 +220 192013 013 011 000 01
141430 1601N 06046W 9580 00446 0082 +221 +206 192012 012 011 000 01
141500 1601N 06047W 9580 00448 0081 +222 +211 189011 012 013 000 01
141530 1601N 06049W 9581 00446 0081 +222 +210 190011 012 010 000 00
141600 1601N 06051W 9579 00447 0081 +221 +200 190010 011 010 000 01
141630 1601N 06052W 9577 00448 0082 +220 +201 188009 010 007 000 05
141700 1601N 06054W 9581 00445 0082 +220 +201 199008 009 008 000 01
141730 1602N 06055W 9580 00447 0081 +220 +204 192008 009 007 000 00
141800 1602N 06057W 9582 00444 0081 +221 +207 198008 008 010 000 01
141830 1602N 06059W 9581 00445 0081 +220 +207 194008 009 010 000 01
141900 1602N 06100W 9581 00444 0080 +222 +205 197008 009 009 000 01
141930 1602N 06102W 9581 00445 0081 +220 +205 198009 009 009 000 01
142000 1603N 06103W 9582 00443 0080 +221 +200 194009 009 008 000 01
142030 1603N 06105W 9577 00447 0080 +220 +203 193009 010 009 000 01
142100 1603N 06107W 9586 00440 0080 +222 +201 200007 008 006 000 01
142130 1603N 06108W 9576 00449 0079 +223 +206 203006 007 007 000 01
142200 1603N 06110W 9580 00445 0079 +225 +208 209006 006 008 000 03
AF308 0414A MARIA HDOB 11 20110910
141230 1602N 06039W 9582 00446 0082 +227 +215 187016 016 011 001 01
141300 1602N 06041W 9580 00447 0082 +223 +205 185014 015 012 000 01
141330 1602N 06043W 9581 00446 0082 +224 +201 186013 013 012 000 01
141400 1602N 06044W 9581 00446 0081 +223 +220 192013 013 011 000 01
141430 1601N 06046W 9580 00446 0082 +221 +206 192012 012 011 000 01
141500 1601N 06047W 9580 00448 0081 +222 +211 189011 012 013 000 01
141530 1601N 06049W 9581 00446 0081 +222 +210 190011 012 010 000 00
141600 1601N 06051W 9579 00447 0081 +221 +200 190010 011 010 000 01
141630 1601N 06052W 9577 00448 0082 +220 +201 188009 010 007 000 05
141700 1601N 06054W 9581 00445 0082 +220 +201 199008 009 008 000 01
141730 1602N 06055W 9580 00447 0081 +220 +204 192008 009 007 000 00
141800 1602N 06057W 9582 00444 0081 +221 +207 198008 008 010 000 01
141830 1602N 06059W 9581 00445 0081 +220 +207 194008 009 010 000 01
141900 1602N 06100W 9581 00444 0080 +222 +205 197008 009 009 000 01
141930 1602N 06102W 9581 00445 0081 +220 +205 198009 009 009 000 01
142000 1603N 06103W 9582 00443 0080 +221 +200 194009 009 008 000 01
142030 1603N 06105W 9577 00447 0080 +220 +203 193009 010 009 000 01
142100 1603N 06107W 9586 00440 0080 +222 +201 200007 008 006 000 01
142130 1603N 06108W 9576 00449 0079 +223 +206 203006 007 007 000 01
142200 1603N 06110W 9580 00445 0079 +225 +208 209006 006 008 000 03
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:Given the 700MB flow across the Bahamas and north of the Greater Antilles will be out of the the south or southeast within the next 24-48 hours or so, the wave is still likelly to "recurve" with no ridging to move the wave westward.
what about the Caribbean gator?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 101432
AF308 0414A MARIA HDOB 12 20110910
142230 1603N 06111W 9581 00445 0078 +229 +213 212007 007 009 000 01
142300 1603N 06113W 9580 00445 0078 +230 +207 205007 007 007 000 01
142330 1603N 06114W 9584 00442 0078 +229 +206 209006 007 006 001 03
142400 1603N 06116W 9580 00445 0079 +225 +210 219006 007 006 000 01
142430 1602N 06117W 9579 00446 0079 +224 +199 237008 009 007 000 00
142500 1602N 06119W 9581 00444 0078 +226 +203 249007 008 005 000 00
142530 1601N 06120W 9580 00445 0079 +226 +208 249006 006 005 000 00
142600 1600N 06122W 9581 00444 0078 +225 +203 250004 005 004 000 01
142630 1600N 06123W 9579 00445 0078 +226 +202 254003 004 002 000 00
142700 1559N 06125W 9580 00445 0079 +227 +200 290005 005 004 000 00
142730 1558N 06126W 9577 00449 0080 +230 +205 276004 004 006 000 01
142800 1558N 06128W 9585 00442 0080 +230 +206 287002 002 001 000 05
142830 1557N 06129W 9579 00448 0080 +229 +210 265002 003 004 000 01
142900 1557N 06131W 9574 00452 0080 +229 +206 206003 004 004 000 00
142930 1557N 06132W 9579 00448 0081 +225 +204 187003 004 005 000 00
143000 1556N 06134W 9580 00448 0082 +226 +216 192004 005 007 000 01
143030 1556N 06135W 9585 00443 0081 +229 +209 245003 004 006 000 01
143100 1556N 06137W 9578 00449 0082 +229 +209 158001 003 008 000 00
143130 1555N 06138W 9585 00444 0083 +229 +215 154003 006 007 000 03
143200 1555N 06140W 9577 00452 0083 +230 +211 188005 006 006 001 00
AF308 0414A MARIA HDOB 12 20110910
142230 1603N 06111W 9581 00445 0078 +229 +213 212007 007 009 000 01
142300 1603N 06113W 9580 00445 0078 +230 +207 205007 007 007 000 01
142330 1603N 06114W 9584 00442 0078 +229 +206 209006 007 006 001 03
142400 1603N 06116W 9580 00445 0079 +225 +210 219006 007 006 000 01
142430 1602N 06117W 9579 00446 0079 +224 +199 237008 009 007 000 00
142500 1602N 06119W 9581 00444 0078 +226 +203 249007 008 005 000 00
142530 1601N 06120W 9580 00445 0079 +226 +208 249006 006 005 000 00
142600 1600N 06122W 9581 00444 0078 +225 +203 250004 005 004 000 01
142630 1600N 06123W 9579 00445 0078 +226 +202 254003 004 002 000 00
142700 1559N 06125W 9580 00445 0079 +227 +200 290005 005 004 000 00
142730 1558N 06126W 9577 00449 0080 +230 +205 276004 004 006 000 01
142800 1558N 06128W 9585 00442 0080 +230 +206 287002 002 001 000 05
142830 1557N 06129W 9579 00448 0080 +229 +210 265002 003 004 000 01
142900 1557N 06131W 9574 00452 0080 +229 +206 206003 004 004 000 00
142930 1557N 06132W 9579 00448 0081 +225 +204 187003 004 005 000 00
143000 1556N 06134W 9580 00448 0082 +226 +216 192004 005 007 000 01
143030 1556N 06135W 9585 00443 0081 +229 +209 245003 004 006 000 01
143100 1556N 06137W 9578 00449 0082 +229 +209 158001 003 008 000 00
143130 1555N 06138W 9585 00444 0083 +229 +215 154003 006 007 000 03
143200 1555N 06140W 9577 00452 0083 +230 +211 188005 006 006 001 00
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Avila is a little conservative and if he said it could regenerate he has to have strong reasons to believe, just my opinion about his words.
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:Given the 700MB flow across the Bahamas and north of the Greater Antilles will be out of the the south or southeast within the next 24-48 hours or so, the wave is still likelly to "recurve" with no ridging to move the wave westward.
you mean this flow... that is east to west.. trough the carribean ....
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Aric - that 700mb flow
is that what the lower levels are doing?
Is it possible that the energy associated on the south side of Maria continues to chug west in the short term?

Is it possible that the energy associated on the south side of Maria continues to chug west in the short term?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
jhpigott wrote:Aric - that 700mb flowis that what the lower levels are doing?
Is it possible that the energy associated on the south side of Maria continues to chug west in the short term?
yep and that is what at least a couple models show happening.. none of them develop that energy but being that the areas are displaced a good deal from each other it could split
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 101442
AF308 0414A MARIA HDOB 13 20110910
143230 1555N 06142W 9576 00453 0084 +230 +212 197007 007 006 000 00
143300 1555N 06143W 9578 00451 0084 +227 +205 202006 007 003 000 00
143330 1555N 06145W 9579 00450 0084 +226 +202 212006 007 004 000 01
143400 1555N 06146W 9576 00452 0083 +225 +209 185006 007 003 001 00
143430 1555N 06148W 9582 00447 0083 +228 +206 198008 009 004 001 01
143500 1555N 06150W 9579 00450 0083 +225 +209 187008 008 006 000 01
143530 1555N 06151W 9580 00449 0083 +225 +206 188008 008 007 000 00
143600 1555N 06153W 9581 00447 0083 +226 +214 190009 010 004 000 01
143630 1555N 06154W 9578 00450 0082 +229 +207 196010 011 007 000 01
143700 1554N 06156W 9581 00447 0082 +227 +208 202005 007 007 000 00
143730 1554N 06158W 9580 00449 0082 +228 +211 209003 005 006 000 00
143800 1554N 06159W 9580 00447 0081 +230 +212 199002 002 007 000 00
143830 1554N 06201W 9578 00448 0081 +230 +207 031002 003 005 000 00
143900 1554N 06203W 9586 00442 0082 +230 +201 041003 004 006 000 01
143930 1554N 06204W 9577 00450 0082 +226 +210 052004 004 006 001 00
144000 1554N 06206W 9580 00448 0083 +225 +211 047005 005 006 000 00
144030 1554N 06208W 9581 00447 0083 +225 +204 043005 006 005 000 01
144100 1554N 06209W 9578 00450 0083 +225 +213 045006 007 006 000 01
144130 1554N 06211W 9581 00448 0084 +225 +213 048009 009 006 001 01
144200 1554N 06213W 9580 00449 0084 +225 +208 051009 009 009 000 01
AF308 0414A MARIA HDOB 13 20110910
143230 1555N 06142W 9576 00453 0084 +230 +212 197007 007 006 000 00
143300 1555N 06143W 9578 00451 0084 +227 +205 202006 007 003 000 00
143330 1555N 06145W 9579 00450 0084 +226 +202 212006 007 004 000 01
143400 1555N 06146W 9576 00452 0083 +225 +209 185006 007 003 001 00
143430 1555N 06148W 9582 00447 0083 +228 +206 198008 009 004 001 01
143500 1555N 06150W 9579 00450 0083 +225 +209 187008 008 006 000 01
143530 1555N 06151W 9580 00449 0083 +225 +206 188008 008 007 000 00
143600 1555N 06153W 9581 00447 0083 +226 +214 190009 010 004 000 01
143630 1555N 06154W 9578 00450 0082 +229 +207 196010 011 007 000 01
143700 1554N 06156W 9581 00447 0082 +227 +208 202005 007 007 000 00
143730 1554N 06158W 9580 00449 0082 +228 +211 209003 005 006 000 00
143800 1554N 06159W 9580 00447 0081 +230 +212 199002 002 007 000 00
143830 1554N 06201W 9578 00448 0081 +230 +207 031002 003 005 000 00
143900 1554N 06203W 9586 00442 0082 +230 +201 041003 004 006 000 01
143930 1554N 06204W 9577 00450 0082 +226 +210 052004 004 006 001 00
144000 1554N 06206W 9580 00448 0083 +225 +211 047005 005 006 000 00
144030 1554N 06208W 9581 00447 0083 +225 +204 043005 006 005 000 01
144100 1554N 06209W 9578 00450 0083 +225 +213 045006 007 006 000 01
144130 1554N 06211W 9581 00448 0084 +225 +213 048009 009 006 001 01
144200 1554N 06213W 9580 00449 0084 +225 +208 051009 009 009 000 01
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:jhpigott wrote:Aric - that 700mb flowis that what the lower levels are doing?
Is it possible that the energy associated on the south side of Maria continues to chug west in the short term?
yep and that is what at least a couple models show happening.. none of them develop that energy but being that the areas are displaced a good deal from each other it could split
On Radar (not the best source for shape but...) it looks not so much displaced as dismembered. Head struggling WNW, torso NW and feet not sure which to follow. I would be amazed if the models can make any sense of this until the changes are complete via disintegration or some regeneration - is the latter likely this side of the islands?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Moisture is being drawn northward into a big upper low to its north. There may not be much left to continue westward into the Caribbean. I don't think Maria is going to regenerate anywhere.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 101452
AF308 0414A MARIA HDOB 14 20110910
144230 1554N 06214W 9580 00450 0085 +225 +209 049010 010 008 000 01
144300 1554N 06216W 9580 00450 0086 +225 +196 046011 012 009 000 05
144330 1554N 06217W 9574 00455 0085 +225 +199 050010 011 /// /// 03
144400 1556N 06216W 9584 00446 0085 +227 +199 052010 010 012 000 03
144430 1557N 06215W 9580 00450 0084 +228 +211 048009 010 011 000 00
144500 1558N 06214W 9580 00451 0085 +225 +211 048010 010 013 000 00
144530 1559N 06213W 9580 00449 0084 +225 +213 048010 011 013 000 00
144600 1600N 06212W 9578 00450 0084 +225 +215 046010 010 012 000 01
144630 1601N 06211W 9582 00447 0083 +227 +208 046010 010 012 000 00
144700 1602N 06210W 9580 00449 0083 +226 +215 048009 010 014 000 01
144730 1603N 06209W 9581 00449 0083 +226 +211 046009 009 014 000 00
144800 1604N 06208W 9581 00448 0083 +226 +215 045010 011 012 000 01
144830 1605N 06207W 9580 00449 0083 +227 +214 047010 011 012 000 00
144900 1606N 06206W 9580 00448 0083 +225 +208 045010 010 013 000 00
144930 1607N 06205W 9580 00448 0082 +225 +216 040009 009 011 000 01
145000 1608N 06203W 9578 00449 0082 +227 +205 045008 008 012 000 01
145030 1610N 06202W 9581 00447 0082 +225 +209 040008 008 010 000 01
145100 1611N 06201W 9581 00446 0082 +229 +207 047007 007 011 000 00
145130 1612N 06200W 9577 00449 0081 +228 +208 049006 006 010 000 00
145200 1613N 06159W 9580 00447 0080 +227 +211 039005 005 010 000 00
AF308 0414A MARIA HDOB 14 20110910
144230 1554N 06214W 9580 00450 0085 +225 +209 049010 010 008 000 01
144300 1554N 06216W 9580 00450 0086 +225 +196 046011 012 009 000 05
144330 1554N 06217W 9574 00455 0085 +225 +199 050010 011 /// /// 03
144400 1556N 06216W 9584 00446 0085 +227 +199 052010 010 012 000 03
144430 1557N 06215W 9580 00450 0084 +228 +211 048009 010 011 000 00
144500 1558N 06214W 9580 00451 0085 +225 +211 048010 010 013 000 00
144530 1559N 06213W 9580 00449 0084 +225 +213 048010 011 013 000 00
144600 1600N 06212W 9578 00450 0084 +225 +215 046010 010 012 000 01
144630 1601N 06211W 9582 00447 0083 +227 +208 046010 010 012 000 00
144700 1602N 06210W 9580 00449 0083 +226 +215 048009 010 014 000 01
144730 1603N 06209W 9581 00449 0083 +226 +211 046009 009 014 000 00
144800 1604N 06208W 9581 00448 0083 +226 +215 045010 011 012 000 01
144830 1605N 06207W 9580 00449 0083 +227 +214 047010 011 012 000 00
144900 1606N 06206W 9580 00448 0083 +225 +208 045010 010 013 000 00
144930 1607N 06205W 9580 00448 0082 +225 +216 040009 009 011 000 01
145000 1608N 06203W 9578 00449 0082 +227 +205 045008 008 012 000 01
145030 1610N 06202W 9581 00447 0082 +225 +209 040008 008 010 000 01
145100 1611N 06201W 9581 00446 0082 +229 +207 047007 007 011 000 00
145130 1612N 06200W 9577 00449 0081 +228 +208 049006 006 010 000 00
145200 1613N 06159W 9580 00447 0080 +227 +211 039005 005 010 000 00
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon
URNT11 KNHC 101452
97779 14444 70159 62300 04700 05010 23218 /9755
40410
RMK AF308 0414A MARIA OB 03
SWS = 11 KTS
Observation Number: 03
Mandatory Data...
Observation Time: Saturday, 14:44Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 15.9N 62.3W
Map this location: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... &lon=-62.3
Location: 39 miles (63 km) to the W (260°) from Basse Terre, Guadeloupe (FRA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 470 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 50° at 10 knots (From the NE at ~ 11.5 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 23°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 21°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
925 mb Surface Altitude: 755 geopotential meters
Optional Data...
Estimated Surface Wind: From 40° at 10 knots (From the NE at ~ 11.5 mph)
Remarks Section...
Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 11 knots (~ 12.7mph)
97779 14444 70159 62300 04700 05010 23218 /9755
40410
RMK AF308 0414A MARIA OB 03
SWS = 11 KTS
Observation Number: 03
Mandatory Data...
Observation Time: Saturday, 14:44Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 15.9N 62.3W
Map this location: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... &lon=-62.3
Location: 39 miles (63 km) to the W (260°) from Basse Terre, Guadeloupe (FRA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 470 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 50° at 10 knots (From the NE at ~ 11.5 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 23°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 21°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
925 mb Surface Altitude: 755 geopotential meters
Optional Data...
Estimated Surface Wind: From 40° at 10 knots (From the NE at ~ 11.5 mph)
Remarks Section...
Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 11 knots (~ 12.7mph)
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Stays as Maria at 11 AM 

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011
...MARIA BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 61.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
NONE
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIA.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF
MARIA IS BECOMING POORLY DEFINED. AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN A FEW SQUALLS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND MARIA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR DEGENERATE TO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM...OVER WATER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011
...MARIA BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 61.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
NONE
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIA.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF
MARIA IS BECOMING POORLY DEFINED. AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN A FEW SQUALLS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND MARIA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR DEGENERATE TO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM...OVER WATER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
All warnings discontinued.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011
...MARIA BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 61.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
NONE
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIA.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011
...MARIA BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 61.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
NONE
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIA.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 101502
AF308 0414A MARIA HDOB 15 20110910
145230 1614N 06158W 9582 00445 0080 +230 +215 045004 005 010 000 00
145300 1615N 06157W 9581 00445 0079 +230 +204 049004 004 010 000 01
145330 1616N 06156W 9578 00447 0079 +230 +212 061002 003 008 000 01
145400 1617N 06154W 9580 00446 0080 +230 +212 099002 002 007 000 01
145430 1618N 06153W 9581 00445 0080 +226 +206 052001 001 008 000 00
145500 1619N 06152W 9580 00444 0080 +225 +205 151001 002 008 000 01
145530 1620N 06151W 9580 00446 0080 +225 +206 177002 003 009 000 00
145600 1620N 06151W 9580 00446 0079 +225 +207 215002 003 010 001 00
145630 1623N 06149W 9580 00444 0078 +225 +213 223003 003 009 001 00
145700 1624N 06148W 9580 00445 0078 +225 +211 235003 004 011 000 00
145730 1625N 06146W 9581 00443 0078 +225 +210 249004 004 011 000 00
145800 1626N 06145W 9578 00445 0078 +225 +218 242004 004 011 000 01
145830 1627N 06144W 9580 00443 0077 +223 +211 258003 004 012 000 00
145900 1628N 06143W 9580 00444 0077 +225 +210 263004 004 009 000 01
145930 1629N 06142W 9581 00441 0077 +222 +209 262005 005 011 000 01
150000 1631N 06141W 9581 00441 0076 +223 +205 259005 006 010 000 01
150030 1632N 06139W 9580 00443 0076 +223 +203 266005 005 011 000 01
150100 1633N 06138W 9579 00443 0075 +220 +207 264005 005 009 000 01
150130 1634N 06137W 9581 00440 0074 +221 +202 269005 005 007 000 01
150200 1635N 06136W 9580 00441 0074 +220 +198 257005 005 008 000 01
AF308 0414A MARIA HDOB 15 20110910
145230 1614N 06158W 9582 00445 0080 +230 +215 045004 005 010 000 00
145300 1615N 06157W 9581 00445 0079 +230 +204 049004 004 010 000 01
145330 1616N 06156W 9578 00447 0079 +230 +212 061002 003 008 000 01
145400 1617N 06154W 9580 00446 0080 +230 +212 099002 002 007 000 01
145430 1618N 06153W 9581 00445 0080 +226 +206 052001 001 008 000 00
145500 1619N 06152W 9580 00444 0080 +225 +205 151001 002 008 000 01
145530 1620N 06151W 9580 00446 0080 +225 +206 177002 003 009 000 00
145600 1620N 06151W 9580 00446 0079 +225 +207 215002 003 010 001 00
145630 1623N 06149W 9580 00444 0078 +225 +213 223003 003 009 001 00
145700 1624N 06148W 9580 00445 0078 +225 +211 235003 004 011 000 00
145730 1625N 06146W 9581 00443 0078 +225 +210 249004 004 011 000 00
145800 1626N 06145W 9578 00445 0078 +225 +218 242004 004 011 000 01
145830 1627N 06144W 9580 00443 0077 +223 +211 258003 004 012 000 00
145900 1628N 06143W 9580 00444 0077 +225 +210 263004 004 009 000 01
145930 1629N 06142W 9581 00441 0077 +222 +209 262005 005 011 000 01
150000 1631N 06141W 9581 00441 0076 +223 +205 259005 006 010 000 01
150030 1632N 06139W 9580 00443 0076 +223 +203 266005 005 011 000 01
150100 1633N 06138W 9579 00443 0075 +220 +207 264005 005 009 000 01
150130 1634N 06137W 9581 00440 0074 +221 +202 269005 005 007 000 01
150200 1635N 06136W 9580 00441 0074 +220 +198 257005 005 008 000 01
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