ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

There is the center over the island of Barbuda and convection behind.



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[floridasun78]

so maria going to tropical wave one moving in carribbean one in atlantic?

[painkillerr]

It's great for the islands, specially for PR that MARIA turned out to be a fluke. On the other hand, this will only add to a mistaken sentiment that these storms may threaten our island, only to recurve at the last minute. I fear that it will fuel overconfidence in the islanders and many won't take future systems seriously.

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 101703
97779 16590 70197 59609 73300 16015 67//8 /5760
RMK AF308 0414A MARIA OB 06
SWS = 31 KTS
...............................................................

decoded

itted: 10th day of the month at 17:03Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 06

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 16:59Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 19.7N 59.6W
Location: 432 miles (695 km) to the ENE (78°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,330 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 160° at 15 knots (From the SSE at ~ 17.2 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -17°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,600 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 31 knots (~ 35.7mph

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 101718
97779 17150 70195 61118 73200 02014 66//3 /5761
RMK AF308 0414A MARIA OB 07
SWS = 35 KTS
................................................................

decoded

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 17:18Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 07

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 17:15Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 19.5N 61.1W
Location: 333 miles (536 km) to the ENE (77°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 20° at 14 knots (From the NNE at ~ 16.1 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -16°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Overcast / Undercast
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,610 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 35 knots (~ 40.3mph)

[artist]

last 3 recco obs (binoculars)

[artist]

wideview

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 101735
97779 17300 70194 62600 73200 99005 67//2 /5761
RMK AF308 0414A MARIA OB 08
SWS = 30 KTS
.................................................................

decoded

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 17:35Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 08

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 17:30Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 19.4N 62.6W
Location: 237 miles (381 km) to the ENE (73°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -17°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Broken clouds (5/8 to 7/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,610 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 30 knots (~ 34.5mph)

[Adoquín]

It's great for the islands, specially for PR that MARIA turned out to be a fluke. On the other hand, this will only add to a mistaken sentiment that these storms may threaten our island, only to recurve at the last minute. I fear that it will fuel overconfidence in the islanders and many won't take future systems seriously.

That is offset by the fact that it has happened twice in three weeks. If anything I feel relief, it may end up raining but at least we did not have to exhaust ourselves this time. Plus the economic effect on top of an existing depression. That being said, go to the GFS global runs, one of the guys posted the Oz GFS for 168. Another Avon Lady knocking at our door, figuratively speaking on that run. Of course that is 9 days, way too far out, but bears watching. This season is being very active, even if, luckily, the only real monster of the season so far has been Irene. At this rate, we will be down to the R or S storm by the beginning of October. And La Nina is here. I am starting to wonder if this season will break the 2005 record, at least in terms of named systems.

[cycloneye]

It's great for the islands, specially for PR that MARIA turned out to be a fluke. On the other hand, this will only add to a mistaken sentiment that these storms may threaten our island, only to recurve at the last minute. I fear that it will fuel overconfidence in the islanders and many won't take future systems seriously.

I agree 100% with that.

[artist]

recco 08

[artist]

for some strange reason they are only sending recco obs and many more than usual.

[wx4me]

Well the models had this one dead on from the beginning though didnt they? Intensity wise anyways?

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 101748
97779 17454 70196 64000 73100 99005 66661 /5761
RMK AF308 0414A MARIA OB 09
SWS = 16 KTS
LAST REPORT
;

..........................................................
decoded

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 17:48Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 09

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 17:45Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 19.6N 64.0W
Location: 158 miles (254 km) to the ENE (59°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,310 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -16°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -16°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,610 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 16 knots (~ 18.4mph)
Mission Status: Concluded (Last Report)

[clfenwi]

Yeah, kind of odd. Plane started to ascend at 1639Z and from then for the next hour, they put out RECCO observations every 15 minutes before last report.

Fairly late TCPOD came out about 30 minutes ago. Flight scheduled for tomorrow. No mention of cancellation of the mission scheduled to launch in a couple of hours (2000Z)

1. TROPICAL STORM MARIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 11/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0614A MARIA
C. 11/0820Z
D. 19.9N 64.9W
E. 11/1130Z TO 11/18Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[clfenwi]

18Z best track

AL, 14, 2011091018, , BEST, 0, 175N, 620W, 40, 1007, TS,

[artist]

Yeah, kind of odd. Plane started to ascend at 1639Z and from then for the next hour, they put out RECCO observations every 15 minutes before last report.

Fairly late TCPOD came out about 30 minutes ago. Flight scheduled for tomorrow. No mention of cancellation of the mission scheduled to launch in a couple of hours (2000Z)

1. TROPICAL STORM MARIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 11/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0614A MARIA
C. 11/0820Z
D. 19.9N 64.9W
E. 11/1130Z TO 11/18Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

thanks for the update.

[artist]

are the models running yet?

[cycloneye]

are the models running yet?

18z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

160
WHXX01 KWBC 101821
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1821 UTC SAT SEP 10 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIA (AL142011) 20110910 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110910  1800   110911  0600   110911  1800   110912  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.5N  62.0W   18.6N  64.4W   19.7N  66.4W   20.5N  67.7W
BAMD    17.5N  62.0W   18.9N  63.7W   20.0N  65.1W   20.9N  66.2W
BAMM    17.5N  62.0W   18.6N  63.8W   19.6N  65.2W   20.4N  66.3W
LBAR    17.5N  62.0W   18.9N  63.6W   20.7N  65.1W   22.1N  66.5W
SHIP        40KTS          41KTS          45KTS          48KTS
DSHP        40KTS          41KTS          45KTS          48KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110912  1800   110913  1800   110914  1800   110915  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.1N  68.7W   22.5N  69.7W   26.4N  68.3W   33.7N  64.1W
BAMD    21.7N  67.0W   23.6N  68.3W   27.8N  68.7W   34.4N  66.0W
BAMM    21.1N  67.1W   22.9N  68.2W   27.4N  67.8W   34.6N  64.7W
LBAR    23.4N  67.8W   26.6N  70.2W   32.8N  69.1W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        57KTS          69KTS          73KTS          70KTS
DSHP        57KTS          69KTS          73KTS          70KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.5N LONCUR =  62.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =  16.0N LONM12 =  60.2W DIRM12 = 312DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  14.4N LONM24 =  58.1W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   40KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =  175NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[clfenwi]

12Z Euro at 120h. Keeps the storm whole.