ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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clfenwi
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#2001 Postby clfenwi » Sat Sep 10, 2011 1:32 pm

12Z GFS 120h

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#2002 Postby artist » Sat Sep 10, 2011 1:34 pm

clfenwi wrote:12Z Euro at 120h. Keeps the storm whole.



do you have the pics for the hours as it goes through the Caribbean?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2003 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 10, 2011 1:42 pm

The LLC will move very close to St Maarten soon. Here is a web cam from there where you can see how the clouds move and the rain arrives. Pic updates now but it will be uploaded at imageshack.us as soon the center passes that area.

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#2004 Postby clfenwi » Sat Sep 10, 2011 1:42 pm

12Z Euro, initilization, 24h, and 48h (don't have anything finer-grained for time steps for Euro)

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#2005 Postby clfenwi » Sat Sep 10, 2011 1:47 pm

12Z GFS 0h, 12h, 24h, 36h

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#2006 Postby artist » Sat Sep 10, 2011 1:48 pm

those models are interesting. Thanks for posting the images.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2007 Postby chrisjslucia » Sat Sep 10, 2011 2:34 pm

Never mind models and centres and all of that - Maria just arrived, I think her entrails to be more specific. Fascinating thunderstorm galloping closer and later today her legs or at least her left leg should provide some rain. As for the rest of her, may she perish in the landless seas to our North.

Ophelia may be a different kettle of fish.

Best news, part from Bolton 0: Man Utd 5, is that PR should avoid most of Miss Maria. Apologies for being overly cheerful...
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#2008 Postby Adoquín » Sat Sep 10, 2011 2:46 pm

Not that I want to rain on our parade, but can someone take a look at the last Caribbean visible. She seems to be under less influence from shear and beginning to gain some slight shape. Look specially at the line of thunderstorms developing northeast of Puerto Rico, coming in. It may be wetter than I thought.
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Re:

#2009 Postby AJC3 » Sat Sep 10, 2011 3:14 pm

Adoquín wrote:Not that I want to rain on our parade, but can someone take a look at the last Caribbean visible. She seems to be under less influence from shear and beginning to gain some slight shape. Look specially at the line of thunderstorms developing northeast of Puerto Rico, coming in. It may be wetter than I thought.


Nah, Maria's clearly still in really bad shape as a "TC". The center is ill defined, the convection is still being sheared and it's still vomiting arc clouds out to the west and northwest. You can clearly see the cirrus filaments north of Hispanaola and PR punching ESE toward the center, indicating the shear isn't going to let up in the near future. However I do expect the magnitude of shear to eventually decrease a little as the shear vector becomes more southerly - once Maria turns more northward.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2010 Postby cpdaman » Sat Sep 10, 2011 3:25 pm

looks to be moving more westerly .....maybe 280 ish?

current steering flow

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... &zoom&time
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2011 Postby AJC3 » Sat Sep 10, 2011 3:31 pm

cpdaman wrote:looks to be moving more westerly .....maybe 280 ish?

current steering flow

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... &zoom&time



You can still see the ill-defined center moving NW on radar and satellite imagery.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Advisories

#2012 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 10, 2011 3:35 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST SAT SEP 10 2011

...CENTER OF MARIA PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
...STRONG WINDS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 62.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM ESE OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN A FEW SQUALLS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...
325 KM...OVER WATER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST SAT SEP 10 2011

MARIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. THE
CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLEW THROUGH
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT JUST AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND FOUND WINDS TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY OF
40 KT. GLOBAL MODEL AND SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE
MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST OF MARIA WEAKENING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN FOR
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MODEL DOES NOT WEAKEN THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS MUCH AND KEEPS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS
NO CHANGE IN WIND SPEED DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME
THE NHC FORECAST INDICATES SOME STRENGTHENING...BUT IT REMAINS NEAR
THE LOW END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM
MODEL.

THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS MARIA
IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THERE ARE SOME SPEED
DIFFERENCES...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ECMWF MOVING A WEAKER MARIA
MORE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 17.9N 62.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 19.0N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 20.6N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 21.9N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 22.9N 68.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 25.5N 70.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 30.0N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 37.5N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2013 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 10, 2011 3:36 pm

...CENTER OF MARIA PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
...STRONG WINDS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 62.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM ESE OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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Re: Re:

#2014 Postby Adoquín » Sat Sep 10, 2011 4:08 pm

AJC3 wrote:
Adoquín wrote:Not that I want to rain on our parade, but can someone take a look at the last Caribbean visible. She seems to be under less influence from shear and beginning to gain some slight shape. Look specially at the line of thunderstorms developing northeast of Puerto Rico, coming in. It may be wetter than I thought.


Nah, Maria's clearly still in really bad shape as a "TC". The center is ill defined, the convection is still being sheared and it's still vomiting arc clouds out to the west and northwest. You can clearly see the cirrus filaments north of Hispanaola and PR punching ESE toward the center, indicating the shear isn't going to let up in the near future. However I do expect the magnitude of shear to eventually decrease a little as the shear vector becomes more southerly - once Maria turns more northward.


I agree no org, but it is already raining. No beach day tomorrow. :(
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#2015 Postby artist » Sat Sep 10, 2011 4:11 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 102104
AF307 0514A MARIA HDOB 01 20110910
205430 2529N 08023W 0141 ///// //// +301 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
205500 2529N 08023W 0141 ///// //// +300 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
205530 2529N 08023W 0142 ///// //// +300 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
205600 2529N 08024W 0142 ///// //// +295 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
205630 2529N 08024W 0142 ///// //// +295 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
205700 2529N 08024W 0142 ///// //// +295 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
205730 2529N 08024W 0142 ///// //// +295 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
205800 2529N 08024W 0142 ///// //// +294 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
205830 2529N 08023W 0137 ///// //// +293 //// 107006 007 /// /// 25
205900 2530N 08022W 0030 00080 //// +283 //// 117008 009 /// /// 05
205930 2530N 08021W 9844 00257 //// +268 //// 128008 009 /// /// 05
210000 2530N 08020W 9513 00555 //// +243 //// 127005 006 /// /// 05
210030 2528N 08018W 9274 00794 //// +232 //// 145004 006 /// /// 05
210100 2528N 08017W 9021 01039 //// +218 //// 180002 002 /// /// 05
210130 2527N 08015W 8758 01288 //// +201 //// 152001 002 /// /// 05
210200 2526N 08013W 8490 01557 //// +183 //// 136002 003 /// /// 05
210230 2525N 08011W 8239 01814 //// +166 //// 124002 003 /// /// 05
210300 2523N 08009W 8046 02003 //// +151 //// 126002 002 /// /// 05
210330 2522N 08007W 7822 02241 //// +138 //// 113001 002 /// /// 05
210400 2521N 08005W 7587 02494 //// +118 //// 107001 002 /// /// 05
$$
;
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#2016 Postby artist » Sat Sep 10, 2011 4:12 pm

the aircraft is on the runway.
Please, someone take this flight and post the obs.
I've been at it since 8:30 this morning.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml?
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#2017 Postby artist » Sat Sep 10, 2011 4:13 pm

recon is sitting on the runway. Can someone post the obs, please?
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#2018 Postby artist » Sat Sep 10, 2011 4:18 pm

URNT15 KNHC 102114
AF307 0514A MARIA HDOB 02 20110910
210430 2520N 08004W 7386 02721 //// +104 //// 129001 002 /// /// 05
210500 2519N 08001W 7233 02900 //// +096 //// 110001 001 /// /// 05
210530 2518N 07959W 7090 03066 //// +092 //// 343000 001 /// /// 05
210600 2517N 07957W 6941 03240 //// +082 //// 313004 004 /// /// 05
210630 2516N 07955W 6790 03421 //// +072 //// 317004 004 /// /// 05
210700 2515N 07953W 6705 03526 //// +067 //// 322004 005 /// /// 05
210730 2514N 07951W 6534 03736 //// +055 //// 328005 005 /// /// 05
210800 2513N 07948W 6447 03852 //// +046 //// 334005 005 /// /// 05
210830 2512N 07946W 6393 03922 //// +041 //// 345004 005 /// /// 05
210900 2511N 07944W 6337 03994 //// +038 //// 002005 005 /// /// 05
210930 2510N 07941W 6287 04058 //// +035 //// 014004 005 /// /// 05
211000 2509N 07939W 6223 04143 //// +029 //// 016006 006 /// /// 05
211030 2508N 07937W 6164 04219 //// +022 //// 020006 006 /// /// 05
211100 2507N 07934W 6109 04292 //// +021 //// 034007 008 /// /// 05
211130 2506N 07932W 6056 04361 //// +020 //// 017009 010 /// /// 05
211200 2505N 07929W 6003 04434 //// +016 //// 016008 009 /// /// 05
211230 2504N 07927W 5953 04503 //// +011 //// 000009 010 /// /// 05
211300 2503N 07925W 5901 04574 //// +007 //// 359010 010 /// /// 05
211330 2502N 07922W 5843 04653 //// +000 //// 004009 010 /// /// 05
211400 2501N 07920W 5760 04766 //// -005 //// 004010 011 /// /// 05
$$
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#2019 Postby artist » Sat Sep 10, 2011 4:21 pm

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#2020 Postby artist » Sat Sep 10, 2011 6:36 pm

Recon came from Florida. They are almost to the storm. Have my grandbaby here and no time to post. Can someone pick it up and post?
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