ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Macrocane
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2041 Postby Macrocane » Sat Sep 10, 2011 8:40 pm

It seems that RECON found a poorly defined center and in the last passes the winds have been a little stronger, the convection has increased and is more concentrated, anyone else thinks that Maria may strengthen a little tonight? I think it will but that's an unofficial and amateur opinion.
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#2042 Postby Adoquín » Sat Sep 10, 2011 8:45 pm

Very disturbing to see that much rain parallel and southeast of us.
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#2043 Postby Adoquín » Sat Sep 10, 2011 8:46 pm

Getting noticeably windier from the northeast
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2044 Postby SootyTern » Sat Sep 10, 2011 8:53 pm

Macrocane wrote:It seems that RECON found a poorly defined center and in the last passes the winds have been a little stronger, the convection has increased and is more concentrated, anyone else thinks that Maria may strengthen a little tonight? I think it will but that's an unofficial and amateur opinion.


She also looks to be on a collision course with that ULL.
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#2045 Postby Adoquín » Sat Sep 10, 2011 8:55 pm

:uarrow:

I agree about the ULL. The inter play should be interesting. Does not seem to be as strong now otherwise the increase in pseudo circular convection of the TS would not be on the increase.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon

#2046 Postby clfenwi » Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:02 pm

URNT15 KNHC 110134
AF307 0514A MARIA HDOB 28 20110911
012430 1750N 06116W 8432 01559 //// +167 //// 183038 039 029 002 05
012500 1751N 06115W 8426 01564 //// +171 //// 184039 039 030 001 01
012530 1753N 06113W 8432 01559 //// +177 //// 184039 039 033 000 05
012600 1754N 06112W 8428 01562 //// +180 //// 184039 039 034 001 01
012630 1755N 06110W 8435 01554 //// +182 //// 186040 040 034 003 01
012700 1756N 06109W 8429 01561 //// +183 //// 185042 043 035 003 01
012730 1757N 06107W 8429 01564 //// +179 //// 179038 038 035 002 01
012800 1758N 06105W 8429 01564 //// +174 //// 180039 040 033 001 05
012830 1800N 06104W 8429 01565 //// +172 //// 177039 040 034 001 01
012900 1801N 06103W 8429 01562 //// +174 //// 173040 041 031 001 05
012930 1803N 06102W 8429 01565 //// +179 //// 173041 042 033 003 05
013000 1805N 06102W 8432 01560 //// +177 //// 172043 044 033 003 01
013030 1807N 06102W 8430 01562 //// +171 //// 167043 044 036 002 05
013100 1809N 06103W 8429 01561 //// +162 //// 166047 048 035 006 01
013130 1811N 06103W 8429 01561 //// +161 //// 166047 048 032 005 01
013200 1813N 06104W 8429 01560 //// +164 //// 168047 048 033 004 01
013230 1815N 06104W 8429 01560 //// +159 //// 165047 048 033 006 05
013300 1817N 06104W 8433 01556 //// +160 //// 165045 046 034 006 01
013330 1819N 06105W 8430 01560 //// +153 //// 167044 044 036 007 01
013400 1821N 06105W 8428 01561 //// +152 //// 172044 046 035 008 01
$$

URNT15 KNHC 110144
AF307 0514A MARIA HDOB 29 20110911
013430 1823N 06105W 8426 01564 //// +150 //// 171046 048 036 008 01
013500 1825N 06105W 8434 01556 //// +150 //// 174045 046 039 008 01
013530 1827N 06105W 8430 01562 //// +149 //// 176043 044 039 008 05
013600 1829N 06106W 8432 01560 //// +148 //// 172042 043 040 008 01
013630 1830N 06108W 8429 01561 //// +145 //// 172043 044 039 008 05
013700 1831N 06109W 8433 01558 //// +147 //// 170041 041 042 009 01
013730 1832N 06111W 8428 01561 //// +153 //// 168040 040 042 008 01
013800 1832N 06113W 8425 01562 //// +151 //// 167040 042 042 011 01
013830 1833N 06115W 8441 01547 //// +148 //// 163036 037 040 010 05
013900 1833N 06117W 8423 01566 //// +146 //// 160035 037 036 012 01
013930 1833N 06119W 8429 01558 //// +145 //// 156036 037 035 011 05
014000 1834N 06120W 8434 01550 //// +141 //// 155040 041 037 010 05
014030 1836N 06120W 8429 01556 //// +147 //// 161041 043 039 013 01
014100 1838N 06121W 8418 01562 //// +142 //// 158038 043 041 015 05
014130 1840N 06121W 8437 01543 //// +143 //// 158030 033 049 032 05
014200 1842N 06121W 8411 01572 //// +136 //// 157037 040 054 029 01
014230 1844N 06121W 8427 01556 //// +133 //// 154040 045 053 021 01
014300 1846N 06121W 8429 01564 //// +137 //// 142037 046 049 019 01
014330 1848N 06122W 8427 01560 //// +133 //// 154038 042 052 045 05
014400 1850N 06122W 8416 01576 //// +137 //// 141042 045 063 063 05

URNT15 KNHC 110154
AF307 0514A MARIA HDOB 30 20110911
014430 1852N 06122W 8404 01589 //// +140 //// 126050 054 058 047 05
014500 1854N 06122W 8450 01537 //// +141 //// 112055 059 050 032 01
014530 1855N 06123W 8417 01570 //// +144 //// 106049 053 047 011 01
014600 1857N 06123W 8431 01554 //// +156 //// 105045 046 043 008 01
014630 1859N 06124W 8438 01549 //// +166 //// 114041 042 042 007 01
014700 1901N 06124W 8424 01567 //// +148 //// 113045 050 044 012 01
014730 1903N 06125W 8417 01575 //// +140 //// 101043 045 047 013 01
014800 1904N 06125W 8432 01556 //// +142 //// 102043 045 047 016 01
014830 1906N 06126W 8425 01566 //// +140 //// 107043 045 049 021 01
014900 1908N 06126W 8424 01569 //// +137 //// 111044 044 046 019 01
014930 1910N 06126W 8429 01564 //// +133 //// 115042 043 045 018 01
015000 1911N 06127W 8440 01553 //// +130 //// 115044 045 044 013 01
015030 1913N 06127W 8427 01566 //// +139 //// 113043 044 043 011 01
015100 1915N 06128W 8431 01563 //// +140 //// 114041 042 041 009 01
015130 1917N 06128W 8428 01567 //// +141 //// 113041 042 042 009 01
015200 1919N 06129W 8432 01563 //// +150 //// 111041 043 042 008 05
015230 1920N 06128W 8425 01570 //// +158 //// 113042 042 043 007 05
015300 1922N 06128W 8433 01564 //// +160 //// 111042 043 041 006 01
015330 1924N 06128W 8428 01570 //// +155 //// 110042 043 040 006 01
015400 1925N 06128W 8429 01570 //// +150 //// 108042 043 042 005 01
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#2047 Postby clfenwi » Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:07 pm

URNT15 KNHC 110204
AF307 0514A MARIA HDOB 31 20110911
015430 1927N 06127W 8429 01567 //// +155 //// 110042 043 041 005 01
015500 1929N 06127W 8429 01572 //// +144 //// 109041 042 041 007 01
015530 1930N 06127W 8430 01572 //// +151 //// 110042 043 042 006 01
015600 1932N 06126W 8432 01574 //// +154 //// 105046 047 042 005 01
015630 1934N 06126W 8428 01578 //// +154 //// 107047 048 040 006 01
015700 1935N 06126W 8429 01578 //// +152 //// 107046 048 039 005 01
015730 1937N 06126W 8428 01580 //// +157 //// 107044 044 038 004 01
015800 1938N 06125W 8429 01581 //// +152 //// 106044 045 039 005 01
015830 1940N 06125W 8433 01577 //// +147 //// 106046 047 039 005 05
015900 1942N 06125W 8430 01581 //// +147 //// 109047 047 039 004 05
015930 1943N 06126W 8429 01582 //// +152 //// 104044 046 /// /// 05
020000 1943N 06128W 8429 01581 //// +151 //// 102041 041 035 003 05
020030 1942N 06129W 8432 01578 //// +152 //// 100040 041 038 005 01
020100 1940N 06130W 8432 01577 //// +151 //// 098040 040 039 003 01
020130 1939N 06132W 8429 01578 //// +156 //// 097040 041 040 002 01
020200 1938N 06133W 8429 01575 //// +155 //// 096040 040 040 004 01
020230 1936N 06134W 8429 01576 //// +156 //// 095042 042 041 005 01
020300 1935N 06136W 8431 01574 //// +148 //// 095046 047 041 007 01
020330 1934N 06137W 8429 01575 //// +144 //// 096043 044 042 009 01
020400 1933N 06139W 8431 01571 //// +154 //// 100044 045 041 009 01
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#2048 Postby painkillerr » Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:08 pm

I'm in St. Thomas tonight and concerned. That convection seems ominous!
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#2049 Postby clfenwi » Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:16 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 110214
AF307 0514A MARIA HDOB 32 20110911
020430 1931N 06140W 8428 01574 //// +162 //// 094042 044 042 007 01
020500 1930N 06141W 8435 01566 //// +163 //// 096040 042 039 002 01
020530 1929N 06143W 8429 01571 //// +165 //// 099040 041 041 001 01
020600 1927N 06144W 8429 01570 //// +163 //// 098042 043 040 003 01
020630 1926N 06145W 8425 01570 //// +165 //// 098038 039 041 004 01
020700 1925N 06147W 8435 01560 //// +151 //// 099037 038 042 008 01
020730 1923N 06148W 8428 01565 //// +153 //// 109034 035 044 007 01
020800 1922N 06150W 8429 01563 //// +156 //// 104037 038 044 003 01
020830 1921N 06151W 8428 01564 //// +153 //// 100040 043 044 004 01
020900 1920N 06152W 8432 01555 //// +147 //// 102043 046 044 004 01
020930 1918N 06154W 8431 01556 //// +143 //// 111041 043 045 007 01
021000 1917N 06155W 8432 01556 //// +140 //// 114045 047 045 011 01
021030 1916N 06156W 8424 01564 //// +143 //// 117044 046 045 012 01
021100 1915N 06158W 8432 01553 //// +148 //// 119044 046 044 011 01
021130 1913N 06159W 8429 01556 //// +144 //// 111044 045 044 010 01
021200 1912N 06200W 8425 01564 //// +141 //// 109041 043 044 012 01
021230 1911N 06201W 8426 01560 //// +156 //// 116044 045 040 006 01
021300 1910N 06203W 8430 01555 //// +161 //// 121042 043 040 002 01
021330 1909N 06204W 8426 01558 //// +161 //// 123037 039 042 003 01
021400 1907N 06205W 8434 01547 //// +155 //// 121033 035 041 007 01
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#2050 Postby clfenwi » Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:26 pm

URNT15 KNHC 110224
AF307 0514A MARIA HDOB 33 20110911
021430 1906N 06207W 8429 01552 //// +147 //// 120034 035 040 007 01
021500 1905N 06208W 8430 01548 //// +152 //// 128036 037 038 007 01
021530 1904N 06209W 8434 01546 //// +152 //// 131034 035 037 007 01
021600 1903N 06210W 8425 01556 //// +164 //// 121032 033 037 003 01
021630 1901N 06212W 8433 01543 //// +169 //// 118031 032 036 002 01
021700 1900N 06213W 8427 01550 //// +166 //// 116030 031 036 004 01
021730 1859N 06214W 8431 01545 //// +154 //// 118032 034 039 011 01
021800 1858N 06215W 8433 01543 //// +141 //// 112032 033 041 017 05
021830 1857N 06217W 8428 01545 //// +144 //// 117037 039 056 038 01
021900 1855N 06218W 8414 01558 //// +147 //// 111040 043 059 025 05
021930 1854N 06219W 8431 01533 //// +149 //// 114038 040 048 018 01
022000 1853N 06221W 8431 01533 //// +157 //// 132037 038 048 016 01
022030 1852N 06222W 8428 01537 //// +146 //// 142034 038 048 018 01
022100 1851N 06223W 8406 01556 //// +151 //// 139029 032 052 041 01
022130 1849N 06224W 8452 01513 //// +146 //// 145033 035 057 042 01
022200 1848N 06225W 8415 01542 //// +149 //// 143027 034 061 041 01
022230 1847N 06227W 8436 01526 //// +146 //// 161024 025 056 024 05
022300 1846N 06228W 8418 01544 //// +150 //// 172019 023 038 017 01
022330 1845N 06229W 8437 01525 //// +172 //// 166021 022 029 005 01
022400 1844N 06230W 8433 01527 //// +155 //// 158021 023 026 006 01
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#2051 Postby Adoquín » Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:35 pm

drizzle now in Old San Juan
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#2052 Postby clfenwi » Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:38 pm

URNT15 KNHC 110234
AF307 0514A MARIA HDOB 34 20110911
022430 1843N 06231W 8428 01533 //// +174 //// 158018 018 025 004 01
022500 1842N 06233W 8429 01535 //// +173 //// 152016 017 017 001 01
022530 1840N 06234W 8433 01531 //// +163 //// 155015 017 021 000 01
022600 1839N 06235W 8426 01538 //// +175 //// 151013 014 018 001 01
022630 1838N 06236W 8430 01535 //// +180 //// 144016 017 010 001 01
022700 1837N 06237W 8429 01536 //// +181 //// 144012 012 008 000 01
022730 1836N 06239W 8432 01531 //// +181 //// 144011 012 011 002 01
022800 1835N 06240W 8430 01535 //// +181 //// 138011 012 009 001 01
022830 1834N 06241W 8426 01539 //// +182 //// 134010 011 006 000 01
022900 1832N 06242W 8431 01535 //// +178 //// 141009 010 011 001 01
022930 1831N 06243W 8432 01536 //// +179 //// 141009 010 014 001 01
023000 1830N 06245W 8427 01542 //// +177 //// 126004 006 016 001 01
023030 1829N 06246W 8429 01537 //// +176 //// 110004 005 019 001 05
023100 1828N 06247W 8432 01533 //// +171 //// 109005 007 021 004 01
023130 1826N 06248W 8434 01534 //// +182 //// 094002 004 019 000 01
023200 1825N 06249W 8429 01542 //// +184 //// 022002 003 012 000 01
023230 1823N 06250W 8432 01539 //// +182 //// 054002 002 009 000 01
023300 1822N 06251W 8429 01544 //// +181 //// 331002 003 012 000 01
023330 1821N 06252W 8430 01543 //// +185 //// 309003 003 010 000 05
023400 1820N 06254W 8430 01544 //// +184 //// 338002 002 014 000 01
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2053 Postby HurricaneFan » Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:40 pm

Macrocane wrote:It seems that RECON found a poorly defined center and in the last passes the winds have been a little stronger, the convection has increased and is more concentrated, anyone else thinks that Maria may strengthen a little tonight? I think it will but that's an unofficial and amateur opinion.

At what Latitude and Longitude are they finding the center?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2054 Postby Macrocane » Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:42 pm

It seems that Maria is not going to be affected by the strongest shear of that ULL, let's see how they interact.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2055 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:43 pm

Some outer bands are arriving in PR.

Image

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Look what we have in the distance. Long range radar updates.

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Re:

#2056 Postby abajan » Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:45 pm

painkillerr wrote:I'm in St. Thomas tonight and concerned. That convection seems ominous!
Yep. I was just looking at that. We could see some areas of extreme convection (white areas in the middle of the blue) on the water vapor loop by D-MAX.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2057 Postby Macrocane » Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:46 pm

HurricaneFan wrote:At what Latitude and Longitude are they finding the center?


If I'm looking well at the RECON map there was a weak sind shift near 18.2N and 62.4W about one hour ago. And there have been SFMR winds in the 40-45 kt range.
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#2058 Postby clfenwi » Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:47 pm

URNT15 KNHC 110244
AF307 0514A MARIA HDOB 35 20110911
023430 1819N 06255W 8431 01543 //// +178 //// 348002 003 012 000 01
023500 1817N 06256W 8430 01545 //// +179 //// 345004 005 032 009 05
023530 1816N 06257W 8432 01545 //// +176 //// 329003 004 024 000 05
023600 1815N 06259W 8432 01545 //// +179 //// 290004 004 /// /// 05
023630 1814N 06300W 8431 01547 //// +180 //// 272005 005 /// /// 05
023700 1813N 06301W 8426 01550 //// +182 //// 268006 007 /// /// 05
023730 1812N 06302W 8430 01548 //// +181 //// 282006 006 027 001 05
023800 1810N 06304W 8430 01548 //// +177 //// 283006 006 004 000 05
023830 1809N 06305W 8432 01548 //// +178 //// 298005 005 002 000 01
023900 1808N 06306W 8431 01550 //// +175 //// 301005 005 001 000 05
023930 1807N 06307W 8428 01554 //// +177 //// 306005 005 000 000 05
024000 1806N 06308W 8429 01552 //// +183 //// 288005 006 001 000 05
024030 1805N 06310W 8432 01550 //// +178 //// 289005 005 004 000 05
024100 1803N 06311W 8429 01553 //// +183 //// 292005 005 006 000 05
024130 1802N 06312W 8430 01553 //// +184 //// 301005 006 001 000 05
024200 1801N 06313W 8430 01553 //// +178 //// 313005 005 004 000 01
024230 1800N 06315W 8429 01555 //// +179 //// 324006 007 003 000 05
024300 1759N 06316W 8432 01553 //// +177 //// 347006 007 004 000 01
024330 1758N 06317W 8430 01554 //// +176 //// 358007 007 004 000 01
024400 1756N 06318W 8429 01554 //// +176 //// 359008 008 007 000 01
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Advisories

#2059 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:54 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 10 2011

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS MARIA IS BETTER ORGANIZED...
...STRONG WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 62.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND PASS NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 10 2011

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOW THAT THE WIND
CIRCULATION OF MARIA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST SIDE REMAINS WEAK. THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 59 KT AND
ESTIMATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 1005 MB. THERE WERE NUMEROUS
40-45 KT WIND ESTIMATES FROM THE SFMR THAT LOOKED RELIABLE...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT. OVERALL...THE SYSTEM NOW
HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH STRONG
CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/9...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER. OTHER
THAN THAT...THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE
THE LAST ADVISORY. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A COMBINATION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
25N64W SHOULD STEER MARIA GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. AFTER THAT...A
DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW MARIA TO RECURVE INTO THE
WESTERLIES. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE UKMET
AND ECMWF SHOW A MORE WESTERLY MOTION DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS AND
ARE SLOWER TO RECURVE. THE GFS SHOWS A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND
IS THE FASTEST TO MOVE THE CYCLONE INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT LIES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE 96 AND 120 HOUR POINTS
COMPROMISE IN SPEED BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND THE SLOWER
ECMWF/UKMET.

MARIA IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH SHEAR THE STORM
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GFS...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY 72 HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF FORECAST A
MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND A WEAKER MARIA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE CALLS FOR MARIA TO BE A HURRICANE BY 72
HOURS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW MARIA WILL INTERACT WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT CALL FOR
MARIA TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT THIS TIME. INSTEAD...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLOW
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE 24-96 HOUR PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS AT
THE LOWER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 18.5N 62.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 19.6N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 21.0N 65.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 22.3N 66.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 23.3N 68.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 26.0N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 32.0N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 39.0N 63.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2060 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:55 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 10 2011

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS MARIA IS BETTER ORGANIZED...
...STRONG WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 62.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
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