ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Today's mission is over. The next one will be tommorow afternoon.

[cycloneye]

Bouy 41043 located a little north of the center of Maria (21N-64.6W) is reporting gusts of Tropical Storm force.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043

Continuous Winds TIME
(AST) WDIR WSPD
2:50 pm E ( 88 deg ) 31.1 kts
2:40 pm E ( 91 deg ) 30.9 kts
2:30 pm E ( 89 deg ) 32.6 kts
2:20 pm E ( 94 deg ) 31.9 kts
2:10 pm E ( 93 deg ) 29.5 kts
2:00 pm E ( 94 deg ) 31.1 kts

Supplemental Measurements Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (AST) WSPD WDIR
2:27 pm 36.9 kts E ( 90 deg true )

Peak gust during the measurement hour
TIME
(AST) GDR GST
2:28 pm E ( 90 deg ) 42.7 kts

[floridasun78]

it look like maria will get closer to bahamas because of been weak i wont supprise to see cone move more west

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST SUN SEP 11 2011

...CENTER OF MARIA TO PASS WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 65.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF MARIA.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF MARIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND PASS WELL EAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325
KM...TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WIND...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
EXTREME NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST SUN SEP 11 2011

MARIA REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
SWIRLS HAVE BEEN SEEN ROTATING AROUND THE EXPOSED MEAN CIRCULATION
CENTER. POSITION ESTIMATES FROM THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WERE A BIT SCATTERED AS THEY FIXED THE
DIFFERENT SWIRLS DURING THE FLIGHT. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK 850
MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 45-48
KT...WHICH SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL
WIND PATTERN IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN HOSTILE BY THE GLOBAL MODELS
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE IN 2-3 DAYS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE
SHORT...AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE CYCLONE BY 96 HOURS. AFTER THAT...MARIA IS
FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BECOME AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 120 HOURS.

THE CENTROID OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION IS LOCATED A LITTLE NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ESTIMATE...WHICH REQUIRED A SLIGHT RELOCATION.
SMOOTHING THROUGH THE FIXES DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO YIELDS AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/9 KT. MARIA SHOULD MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... THEN
TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. MARIA SHOULD RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
SECOND TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE WITH THE ECMWF SHIFTING
EASTWARD...AND CLOSER TO THE GFS TRACK. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER WATER TO THE NORTH
OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE RAIN BANDS CURRENTLY OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 19.8N 65.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 20.6N 66.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 21.7N 67.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 22.8N 68.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 24.2N 69.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 29.3N 69.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 37.5N 64.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 49.5N 51.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

...CENTER OF MARIA TO PASS WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 65.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[cpdaman]

that se trough is gonna b out by when thur or what?

[floridasun78]

time will tell by when

[Blinhart]

Long time lurked here. Was wondering what all the experts think of this possibly being totally different from the models, due to the fact that she is not acting like a true TC???

[gatorcane]

it look like maria will get closer to bahamas because of been weak i wont supprise to see cone move more west

Not a chance. Look how deep the trough is digging now....across the Northern GOM and SE U.S...700MB flow all the way up to 200MB will be straight from the SW soon over the Bahamas and Western Atlantic.

Even if she opened back up into a wave, there won't be enough ridging to drive her west into the Bahamas:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[wxman57]

Long time lurked here. Was wondering what all the experts think of this possibly being totally different from the models, due to the fact that she is not acting like a true TC???

Maria is acting like a sheared TC. Follow the moisture, don't worry about the weak swirl of a center. Moisture will shoot off to the north as Maria interacts with that trof. No chance of it coming west toward the East Coast or Gulf.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 14, 2011091200, , BEST, 0, 200N, 656W, 50, 1005, TS

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 11 2011

...CENTER OF MARIA MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 65.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF MARIA WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND PASS WELL EAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER WATER WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WIND...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
EXTREME NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 11 2011

WITHOUT RECON DATA OR VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE LOCATION OF
THE CENTER OF MARIA HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE TO PINPOINT. RADAR DATA
FROM SAN JUAN WERE INCONCLUSIVE...BUT A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE
PASSES...CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND LAST-VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF MARIA REMAINS TO THE
WEST OF A LARGE BLOB OF VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION. OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE NEARBY NOAA BUOY 41043 AND OTHER SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA
SUGGEST AN EAST-WEST ELONGATION TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 AND 3.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB AND...WITH NO APPARENT
CHANGE IN THE STORM STRUCTURE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KT.

ALTHOUGH UNCERTAIN...RECENT FIXES YIELD A MOTION OF 300/09...MORE OR
LESS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MARIA APPROACHING THE WESTERN EXTENSION
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...A SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THAT SHOULD FAVOR A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. BETWEEN 36-72 HOURS...A TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE EASTWARD...GRADUALLY INDUCING A RECURVING TRACK NEAR 70W.
A LARGER AND MORE POTENT TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES BY 96 HOURS SHOULD ACCELERATE MARIA NORTHEASTWARD OVER
HIGHER LATITUDES. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND A HAIR TO THE LEFT AFTER
THAT FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

AS ALWAYS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FAIRLY CHALLENGING. UW-CIMSS
AND SHIPS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR
PREVAILING OVER MARIA AS A RESULT OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
DECREASE IN THE SHEAR FOR AT LEAST 36 HOURS...WHICH MAKES THE
PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION SLIM. BETWEEN
36-72 HOURS...THERE COULD BE A MODEST REDUCTION IN THE SHEAR AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS. HOWEVER...MARIA
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE COLD WAKE LEFT BEHIND BY
KATIA WHICH TRAVERSED THIS REGION LESS THAN A WEEK AGO. IN SPITE OF
THE GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE REGIONAL HURRICANE
MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AROUND 48 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND FOLLOWS THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. BEYOND 72 HOURS...A SHARP
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD BRING ANY
STRENGTHENING TO AN END. GIVEN THE ENORMOUS VERTICAL SHEAR
INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS BY 96-120 HOURS...EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SEEMS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 20.2N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 21.1N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 22.5N 68.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 23.7N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 25.5N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 31.5N 68.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 40.7N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 50.0N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 11 2011

...CENTER OF MARIA MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 65.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 120840
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 AM AST MON SEP 12 2011

...MARIA MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 66.3W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[Gustywind]

Loop. Sheared TS Maria moving away from the Lesser Antilles.

[canes04]

Westward she goes.

[Blinhart]

Is there any possibility of her breaking into two separate systems? The one large part that is going North of the Virgin Islands and the trailing part that has the look of a wave on the West side of the L.A.? To my untrained eyes that's what looks like could be happening in the Sat. Loop, Gusty posted.

[Buck]

Anyone have a shear chart?

[wxman57]

Looks like a sheared mess to me. Wouldn't normally qualify for an upgrade to a TS in its current state. Still looks like all the moisture will be driven northward, with or without an LLC. And if the moisture is ripped away from the LLC (any more than it is now), then the LLC would likely dissipate.

[clfenwi]

Mission scheduled for this afternoon was cancelled.

NOUS42 KNHC 121430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 12 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-104
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX OF
MARIA AT 14/1800Z NEAR 30.0N 69.0W.
3. REMARK: FIX MISSION FOR MARIA AT 12/2000Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 12/1230Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP