Global model runs discussion

[BigA]

00 Euro still consistent, developing a tropical depression moving slowly northward out of the western Caribbean at the end of the run.

00 FIM and FIMY also continue to develop tropical cyclones, albeit more in the central Caribbean than the western Caribbean.

We'll see if the GFS gets back on board later today.

[perk]

The 06 GFS does show a developing system in the eastern atlantic, and the ridge is stronger in this run than it has been in a while.

[BigA]

The 06 GFS does show a developing system in the eastern atlantic, and the ridge is stronger in this run than it has been in a while.

Yeah, the Cape Verde system doesn't recurve, it just sort of disappears when the GFS loses resolution at 204 hours.

Although I think Rainstorm may have been talking about the predicted surface ridge over the northeast US.

Also, 00Z GGEM (Canadian) ensembles are quite similar to Euro(ECMWF), predicting lowering pressure in the western Caribbean, starting in 5-6 days.



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[Blinhart]

Got a question for the pro-mets. Does anyone think there could be a storm to take an Andrew/Lilly/Katrina type track this year or most likely we will only have GOM and Carribean originated storms for the rest of the year? With that giant dome of High pressure over Texas, North Mexico and West Louisiana, I just don't see anything getting into the West or Northwest GOM the rest of this year.

[rainstorm]

The 06 GFS does show a developing system in the eastern atlantic, and the ridge is stronger in this run than it has been in a while.

Yeah, the Cape Verde system doesn't recurve, it just sort of disappears when the GFS loses resolution at 204 hours.

Although I think Rainstorm may have been talking about the predicted surface ridge over the northeast US.

Also, 00Z GGEM (Canadian) ensembles are quite similar to Euro(ECMWF), predicting lowering pressure in the western Caribbean, starting in 5-6 days.



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yea, without that locked in surface ridge nothing else really matters. 1 or 2 more slop storms like maria and nate? possible.

[BigA]

yea, without that locked in surface ridge nothing else really matters. 1 or 2 more slop storms like maria and nate? possible.

I don't think the surface high over the northeast is absolutely essential for development, or even significant development. Yes, high pressure over the northeast may make development more likely, but it isn't the be all and end all of it. I'll take a vigorous monsoon trough over the western Caribbean with a weak high over the NE US over a weak monsoon trough with a vigorous high over the NE US.

[blp]

12z GFS drops it after 228hrs. Need to see if the Euro follows. I think it is still a little early for SW Carribean development.

[rainstorm]

from what i can see the 12z gfs simply continues the same old pattern.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC atempts to develop in the SW Caribbean at the end of run,but for sure is going to be a CA destination.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[LarryWx]

Folks,
While many of you seem to be concentrating on the W. Caribbean, you may want to look much further north. Looking at 1 mb resolution 12Z gfs sfc maps, there is a subtle suggestion of something tropical or subtropical with a weak circulation trying to brew around 30N, 73W Sun evening 9/18 and subsequently drifting westward underneath the big NE high toward the SE coast. This is something probably worth monitoring. This is really the first run actually showing something like this although it is, admittedly, only subtle even on this run. Anyone else notice this? Let's see if future runs show something similar and/or try to develop something further. This is the kind of thing that sometimes occurs underneath big very slow moving NE highs.

[cycloneye]

Folks,
While many of you seem to be concentrating on the W. Caribbean, you may want to look much further north. Looking at 1 mb resolution 12Z gfs sfc maps, there is a subtle suggestion of something tropical or subtropical with a weak circulation trying to brew around 30N, 73W Sun evening 9/18 and subsequently drifting westward underneath the big NE high toward the SE coast. This is something probably worth monitoring. This is really the first run actually showing something like this although it is, admittedly, only subtle even on this run. Anyone else notice this? Let's see if future runs show something similar and/or try to develop something further. This is the kind of thing that sometimes occurs underneath big very slow moving NE highs.

Larry,GFS is not alone with that scenario as the 12z Canadian has it.



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[rockyman]

12z Euro is running...let's see what it shows:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[LarryWx]

Folks,
While many of you seem to be concentrating on the W. Caribbean, you may want to look much further north. Looking at 1 mb resolution 12Z gfs sfc maps, there is a subtle suggestion of something tropical or subtropical with a weak circulation trying to brew around 30N, 73W Sun evening 9/18 and subsequently drifting westward underneath the big NE high toward the SE coast. This is something probably worth monitoring. This is really the first run actually showing something like this although it is, admittedly, only subtle even on this run. Anyone else notice this? Let's see if future runs show something similar and/or try to develop something further. This is the kind of thing that sometimes occurs underneath big very slow moving NE highs.

Larry,GFS is not alone with that scenario as the 12z Canadian has it.

Thanks, Luis. I had not seen that. I see that it isn't even subtle about it. Interesting. I realize that the CMC is often wacky with its false tropical solutions (that's why JB calls it the "Crazy Uncle" model lol). However, in this case, I obviously feel it may be onto something rather than "on" something. Let's see if the king Euro suggests anything (at least subtly).

[AJC3]

Folks,
While many of you seem to be concentrating on the W. Caribbean, you may want to look much further north. Looking at 1 mb resolution 12Z gfs sfc maps, there is a subtle suggestion of something tropical or subtropical with a weak circulation trying to brew around 30N, 73W Sun evening 9/18 and subsequently drifting westward underneath the big NE high toward the SE coast. This is something probably worth monitoring. This is really the first run actually showing something like this although it is, admittedly, only subtle even on this run. Anyone else notice this? Let's see if future runs show something similar and/or try to develop something further. This is the kind of thing that sometimes occurs underneath big very slow moving NE highs.

Larry,GFS is not alone with that scenario as the 12z Canadian has it.

Thanks, Luis. I had not seen that. I see that it isn't even subtle about it. Interesting. I realize that the CMC is often wacky with its false tropical solutions (that's why JB calls it the "Crazy Uncle" model lol). However, in this case, I obviously feel it may be onto something rather than "on" something. Let's see if the king Euro suggests anything (at least subtly).

And not only that, there were nearly identical runs of the ECM and GFS from 09/00Z that showed this occurring, however they both immediately dropped it in subsequent runs. I posted this in another forum 3 days ago...

Both the 00Z GFS and ECM have a strong signal of some sort of "rogue storm" developing along the SE seaboard in the day 8-10 range (9/17 - 9/19) as a result of a 500MB cutoff low over SC. The ECM is stronger with this feature because it ingests some low level vorticity coming out of the tropics, part of it from a decapitated Maria (it's much slower than the GFS in turning it northward east of the Bahamas).

Here's the 09/00Z ECM... (pretty similar to the 12/12Z CMC, no?)

[bigdan35]

at 120 hrs on the euro lower pressure starting in western caribbean

[HurricaneWarning92]

What happened to the wave that was predicted to form just off the coast of Africa in a bout a week?

[cycloneye]

GFS continues to forecast a big cold high in the Central/Eastern U.S that means the Western Caribbean will be a favorable area.



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[BigA]

12Z runs of CMC, UKMET and FIM/FIMY have a low forming in the SW Caribbean in 5-8 days.

[bigdan35]

12z fim



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[ROCK]

the 12Z GFS brings it to the Yucatan at the end of the run. very long range....