2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Nice weather next several days

[vbhoutex]

From Jeff Lindner:

2010-2011 Drought becomes the 2nd worst drought in State History!



Summer of 2011 (Jun-Aug) the hottest ever for the state of Texas!



La Nina develops again in the central Pacific…indications suggest this drought will continue into 2012 (a multi-year event)



Drought:

The current Drought Monitor shows an astounding 81% of the state in exceptional drought or the worst category. 95% of the state is either in exceptional or extreme drought. Rainfall deficits across southeast Texas are now approaching 25-30 inches since last October and nearing 40 inches at Galveston since Hurricane Ike. These are staggering deficits, none of us have seen such large rainfall departures in our lifetime.



Current PDSI values fell from -7.12 in July 2011 to -7.75 in August 2011 making this drought now the 2nd worst on record. Listed below are the worst droughts and their PDSI values:



1951-1957: -7.80

2010-2011: -7.75

1916-1918: -7.09

1924-1925: -6.10

1999-2000: -5.51



February 1 to Sept 3 rainfall (driest ever by far for IAH, Hobby, College Station):

COLLEGE

HOUSTON HOBBY STATION



5.95 2011 7.21 2011 7.93 2011

12.50 1917 14.30 1956 9.39 1925

14.03 1901 16.41 1963 11.73 1988

14.93 1930 16.48 1953 11.86 1917

15.29 1951 17.18 1998 13.06 1937



Note: For BUSH IAH to move to 2nd place a staggering 6.55 inches of rainfall would be required and for Hobby 7.09 inches. This is an incredible record.



Rainfall Departures from October 1, 2010 to September 3 are:

Bellville: -24.60

Brenham: -24.55

College Station: -23.18

Columbus: -25.32

Conroe: -27.73

Crockett: -20.53

Danevang: -20.05

Galveston: -17.97

Freeport: -26.99

Hobby: -26.96

BUSH IAH: -26.72

Huntsville: -29.08

Katy: -24.64

Livingston: -31.21

Madisonville: -26.97

Matagorda: -25.37

Tomball: -33.13

Victoria: -26.73

Corpus Christi: -18.94



Rainfall Departures since Hurricane Ike:



BUSH IAH: -27.39

Hobby Airport: -32.81

College Station: -27.61

Galveston: -38.87



Fire Weather:

It was already bad before Labor Day weekend, but then came the strong winds and dry air on the backside of TS Lee bringing horrendous fire weather conditions to the state. Since November 15, 2010, 3.6 million acres have burned across the state (old record was 2.1 in 2006) in 19,605 wildfires, with 4,376 structures lost. 48,613 structures have been threatened and saved. In the last 7 days alone, 181 fires have burned 166,45 acres across the state.



Elevated to at times critical fire weather conditions will continue until widespread wetting rains fall over the entire region. If rains do not fall, the state will have critical fire weather conditions behind each cold frontal passage this fall under strong and dry north winds which will promote rapid wind driven wildfires.



This is the worst fire weather conditions we have ever faced and additional fires similar to the Bastrop fire will become increasingly common if no rain falls.



Currently 251 out of 254 counties have burn bans in place, effective last week it is prohibited to start a BBQ in any City of Houston Park.



Agriculture:

Crop and livestock losses stand at 5.2 billion dollars



During the summer of 2010 hay was selling for 12 dollars per ton, today it is selling for 170 dollars per ton.



There is little to no vegetation left for livestock to feed on. Hay is being trucked into the region from the SE US and the central plains to substitute for the lack of vegetation locally. Un-irrigated vegetation is now either dead of close to being dead. KBDI values are nearly 750-800 across every county in the area. At values of 800, there is no longer any water in the top 8 inches of soil and all vegetation with roots in this layer will begin to die. It is interesting to note that Bastrop County has a KBDI value of 790, the highest in the area. KBDL values can also be used to determine fire spread and growth potential and anything over 700 is considered critical. The following is the KBDI value for selected counties:



Austin: 760

Bastrop: 790

Brazos: 770

Brazoria: 746

Calhoun: 757

Colorado: 779

Fort Bend: 751

Galveston: 705

Grimes: 769

Harris: 761

Lee: 783

Liberty: 728

Matagorda: 750

Montgomery: 782

Nueces: 768
San Jacinto: 771

Travis: 774

Trinity: 756

Victoria: 757

Waller: 765

Washington: 779

Wharton: 765



The extreme short term dryness coupled with the record and long lasting heat of this summer is also resulting in the loss of millions of trees across the area. It is estimated that at least 1.2 million trees have died in the last 3 months in the 8 county area around Houston. The Texas Forest Service estimates that between 26-64 million trees are currently at risk of dying from the current conditions or about 10-12% of the canopy coverage in this area. 6.6 million trees were lost to Hurricane Ike, so on the low end, the current drought may kill 4-5 times more trees than Ike. In Memorial Park alone 2,800 trees have died. In central Texas, live oak and cedar trees are starting to die from lack of water. Without sustained soaking rainfall all vegetation will continue to suffer and the area landscape will continue to decline.



Wildlife is also being greatly affected across the entire region as water sources have been depleted. There is no longer enough water to sustain wildlife in rural areas and significant losses are starting to occur especially with respect to turtles, deer, and ground forage animals. In lakes and streams where water has dried up all fish supplies have been lost.



Water Supply:

Strong evaporation rates from high temperatures and gusty winds continue to result in rapidly declining lake levels across the state. Decreases on capacity in the last 3 weeks has been 5-10% across many of the water supply systems. A total of 583 water supply systems have mandatory water restrictions in place with an additional 294 under voluntary restrictions. LCRA is reporting that the amount of water flowing into the Highland Lakes chain from Jan-July 2011 was only 10% of average, or the lowest ever recorded since the completion of Lake Travis in 1942. This poor inflow combined with incredible evaporation rates (122,000 acre feet) from Jan-July is resulting in significant losses on the water supply lakes. Based on the current lack of inflow into the lakes, strong evaporation, and demand, the lakes will continue to decline by about 1 foot per week into early October.





Lake levels below conservation pool and current capacity:

Lake Conroe: -5.30 (77%)

Lake Houston: -7.60 (61%)

Lake Buchanan: -27.36 (43%)

Lake Travis: -48.38 (39%)

Toledo Bend: -11.00 (61%)

Lake Livingston: -3.10 (86%)

Lake Somerville: -9.39 (43%)

Lake Georgetown: -22.61 (39%)

Sam Rayburn: -12.22 (59%)



Forecast:

No rain is forecast for the next 5 days, with maybe a 20% chance of rainfall over this upcoming weekend. With La Nina conditions developing again, and the tropical threat appearing to end for Texas, a warm and dry fall, winter, and spring appears to be in store for the state. 1 and 3 month forecasts from CPC show below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures through the end of 2011. The current drought will be maintained or worsen and conditions will continue toward critical levels.

[vbhoutex]

Here we go again. Official 101f, here at the house 102f and 103f at the Weatherbug site nearest to me. Supposedly only 3 more days of this to go. Tied the record today, should break it tomorrow with 102f progged. I don't know how to change it so all I can do is report and complain about it.

[Tireman4]

Here we go again. Official 101f, here at the house 102f and 103f at the Weatherbug site nearest to me. Supposedly only 3 more days of this to go. Tied the record today, should break it tomorrow with 102f progged. I don't know how to change it so all I can do is report and complain about it.

Yeah I know. Amazing. Just amazing. The Summer of Wither...

[vbhoutex]

This would be really funny if it weren't so true!!

YOU KNOW YOU ARE IN TEXAS IN August WHEN. .. . .

The birds have to use potholders to pull worms out of the ground.

The trees are whistling for the dogs...

The best parking place is determined by shade instead of distance.

Hot water now comes out of both taps.

You can make sun tea instantly.

You learn that a seat belt buckle makes a pretty good branding iron..

The temperature drops below 95 and you feel a little chilly.

You discover that in July it only takes 2 fingers to steer your car..

You discover that you can get sunburned through your car window.

You actually burn your hand opening the car door.

You break into a sweat the instant you step outside at 7:30 a.m.

Your biggest bicycle wreck fear is, 'What if I get knocked out and end up
lying on the pavement and cook to death?'

You realize that asphalt has a liquid state.

The potatoes cook underground, so all you have to do is pull one out and add
butter.

Farmers are feeding their chickens crushed ice to keep them from laying
boiled eggs.

The cows are giving evaporated milk.

Ah, what a place to call home. .

God Bless The State of TEXAS !!!!!

[Flyinman]

I have never given up on anything in my life but I have finally given up on trying to keep my plants alive. The cool mornings with cold dew on the ground gave me hope. Now that the Heat Dome is back, I really do not have any hope for a break in the near future. Seems like the ridge will just move or weaken but always return. I have also noticed many animals seem to be scurrying more than usual preparing for the winter. I can only imagine how much of their food source has been destroyed. I fill up my bird bath and a bowl of water every day. I must have every creature from miles around at my house!

[vbhoutex]

An update from Jeff:

Record Heat

Another day of record heat in this endless summer of records.

Upper level high pressure has built back over the region providing general subsidence and pushing afternoon temperatures back over 100. Yesterday’s high of 101 smashed the old record of 98 from 1912. Should see at least 100-103 across the region today and likely again on Wednesday. Winds are also up some this morning out of the SW at 5-15mph and will become gusty this afternoon at 10-20mph. See fire weather section below.

A hopeful extended:

Upper level ridge will begin to weaken as the pattern over the US moves toward a more fall like flow regime. An upper level trough will move into the western US and then the central plains this weekend resulting in a frontal boundary sagging southward into TX. This front should stall north of our area, but increasing SE flow off the Gulf of Mexico should help bring better moisture supply into the region. Feel just enough moisture may be able to build by Friday-Sunday to give the area a great big 20% chance of rainfall (highest chance we are seen in a few weeks, we will take it). Seabreeze appears to be the main focus.

A mush stronger upper level trough may approach the area early to mid next week forcing a frontal boundary at least into SE TX. GFS is fairly aggressive with rain chances, but one must remember that we are in a historic drought and drought leads to drought, so I am not overly excited about the rain chances next week. While the pattern looks at least favorable for rain, favorable patterns for rain in the past few months have gone unrealized over the area. Will go with 20% for Mon-Wed and bump it up if confidence increases some.

Fire Weather:

Without wetting rains fire weather will continue to be a big concern across the region. Gusty winds this afternoon of 10-20mph from the SW will be common and this along with low afternoon RH and dead/dry fuels will promote an environment favorable for rapid fire growth and spread. RH should begin to increase in the afternoon Wed-weekend and this should help lower the fire threat some however given the widespread dry fuels, even higher RH may not keep fires from starting.

Current fires across the region have been brought under control including the Bastrop and Tri-County Fire. Updated assessment on the Bastrop fire indicate 1554 homes were burned and is about 60% contained. The Tri-county fire is now 85% contained with 60 homes lost and 23 damaged.

Note: 3 years ago today at 2:10 am Hurricane Ike crossed the Texas coast at Galveston with a 15-20 foot storm surge and 10-18 inches of rainfall. Since that day we have been suffering from below normal rainfall and drought conditions.

[sequoyah101]

Very hard to see how the 51-57 could be worse than this since back then there were some periodic rains weren't there? Now, we get almost no rain at all.

Not to be alarmist, but when does desertificaiton begin? If the root structures die where does replenishment come from?

Nothing can be done I know but this is frightening to watch huge oaks die, no moisture in the ground at all. When do wells begin to go dry. I have been watching water levels in monitor wells in SE Texas and they continue a multi year drop. Sure, levels go up and down with the seasons but the trend is down.

The really sickening part is that just three hours away there is plenty of moisture.

[Turtle]

Super hot day today! I didn't think we'd reach 105F+ until next year, but we got to 108F today.

[Houstonia]

Wildfire in far west Houston.

As per Jeff Lindner:

Major wildfire is burning out of control in George Bush Park just west of HWY 6 in Barker Reservoir. Numerous fire departments are responding including HFD, Cy-Fair, I-10 west VFD and HPD with air support. Additional air support to drop water has been requested. At this time the fire is burning NE and remains contained to within the park limits with no significant structures threatened. Fire is showing extreme behavior and crowning in small trees/brush in the south winds of 10-15mph. A large smoke plume is being generated and the fire is now large enough to be visible on the HGX radar.

Evacuations have been ordered along the west side of Hwy 6 from Westhiemer to Noble as a precaution.

[sequoyah101]

Welcome to the world of the tri-county fire people. We now appear to have cretins in the area setting fires. We won't last long with this going on.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Not that I know Texas that well but I'm guessing Tireman resides in this area so to make your day....

Current WeatherWed. Sep 14, 2011, 0:00 CST Moose Jaw Cs
Moose Jaw, SK NA


-4°C

* Feels Like : -
* Wind : W 6km/h
* Sunrise : 6:36
* Sunset : 19:18

* Relative Humidity : 80%
* Pressure : 103.35 kPa
* Visibility : -
* Ceiling : -

Am working on changing that wind direction.
Until then I'll try this again



and if'n it makes it down there ya'll can send *some* heat this-a-way please (just a wee bit please)

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Very hard to see how the 51-57 could be worse than this since back then there were some periodic rains weren't there? Now, we get almost no rain at all.

Not to be alarmist, but when does desertificaiton begin? If the root structures die where does replenishment come from?

Nothing can be done I know but this is frightening to watch huge oaks die, no moisture in the ground at all. When do wells begin to go dry. I have been watching water levels in monitor wells in SE Texas and they continue a multi year drop. Sure, levels go up and down with the seasons but the trend is down.

The really sickening part is that just three hours away there is plenty of moisture.

If you are referring to grasses (seeds are still lying on the soil)
http://www.agriculture.com/news/livestock/texas-pastures-may-take-two-years-to_3-ar19171

Native trees will be the same re from seeds (but it sure will take them a lot longer).

The plant life came back surprisingly fast after Mount St. Helen's eruption.


"Everything about this is historic and comparable to the Dust Bowl years," says Robert Dull, an assistant professor of geography and the environment at the University of Texas-Austin, referring to the severe drought and dust storms of the 1930s that forced mass migrations from Oklahoma and other states. "People made major life-changing decisions based on that event, just as they will with this."

Droughts and wildfires usually are phenomena that occur in faraway, rural corners of West Texas, Dull says. But last week, some of his students said their families had lost homes to the wildfires in nearby Bastrop, marking a disaster felt as much in urban centers as in rural areas.

"There's a psychological effect that will linger for years," he says.
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/drought/story/2011-09-12/texas-drought-Dust-Bowl-ranchers/50373618/1
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlTcStnn6Mw[/youtube]

In 2002 we went through a similar drought (but not hitting the temps you folks are)...I remember driving out to the farm and looking at its stunted *weed* crop and thinking we'd never recover (many dust devil dry years led up to it). Cattle and wildlife were starving here too (Eastern Canada's farmers sent donated hay out west to 600 lucky families who won the hay lottery). Most went to auction however (recovering from that will be the toughest for Tx ranchers). El Nino isn't good to us so I can't share your wishes for that (it brought us more or less 30 years of various degrees of drought (except for a couple of years where La Nina popped up) ending with our worst drought in well over a 100 years)...BUT I sure hope you get lots of rain some how.

[vbhoutex]

102f across the board yesterday at all 3 of my locations. Wildfire scare with the George Bush Park fire, but all the departments did a bang up job and it is now at 99% containment according to last report. Somewhat disconcerting to go out in your back yard and see a huge plume of black smoke that looks a lot closer than it really is. It was about 8 miles WSW of my location.

[Flyinman]

Yes I agree about this fires. I was amazed at how quickly they were able to contain that fire. Below is a video of the mythological phenemenom known as rain :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szXCuHOmnjg

[Tireman4]

[quote="SaskatchewanScreamer"]Not that I know Texas that well but I'm guessing Tireman resides in this area so to make your day....

Yeah, I live in Humble. Humble is about 5-7 miles from Bush Intercontinental Airport, so when you see the temperature at Bush, you are probably seeing mine. I work 5 miles from Hobby Airport, so when you see Hobby temperature, I feel that one too.

And our forecast for now....

Today: Sunny and hot, with a high near 101. Heat index values as high as 104. Southwest wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 96. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 94. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 70.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 94.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 71.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 94.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 93.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73.

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 93.

[Tireman4]

Welcome to the world of the tri-county fire people. We now appear to have cretins in the area setting fires. We won't last long with this going on.

Not that I do not believe you, but do you have verification on that?

I have this:

Possible Arsonist Being Sought In Some Fires
|

By Kenneth Dean in The Tyler Morning Telegraph
As wildfires continue to rage across East Texas burning thousands of acres and dozens of homes, Smith County authorities are actively searching for a man they believe may be intentionally setting fires endangering the lives of residents and firefighters.

Smith County Reserve Fire Marshal Jay Brooks said several fires in the county including the Wednesday fire on County Road 26 are suspicious and may have been set by an arsonist. Brooks said information was developed by Smith County Sheriff’s deputies that a black male driving a silver Ford Thunderbird with a black convertible top may have set several fires in the county in the past several weeks.

Firefighters battled the Wednesday blaze on County Road 26, which closed the road and forced evacuations, and had to retreat when a wall of fire quickly advanced on their position.


http://www.texas-fire.com/2011/09/possi ... ome-fires/

[StormClouds63]

A little snippet from the Lake Charles National Weather Service discussion:

IT APPEARS THAT THE LA NINA HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS WILL MEAN
THAT THE WINTER IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY.

[sequoyah101]

StormClouds63:

You're just full of cheery news.

SaskatchewanScreamer:

30 years of drought? Really? You're right, this will shape population patterns. Unlike the 30s though this affects highly populated areas and the Eastern part of Texas. I figure the next item on the agenda though, without restoring rains, is acute water quality problems and shortages. Wells will eventually go dry and that is where much of the water supply in SE Texas comes from. As for N Texas... surface water and that is even worse. Rain will return someday but will we be able to sustain even a portion of life as we know it today in what is functionally becoming a desert?

Grasses and forb seeds will survive and come up but trees are what make E Texas... they will not return soon of course.

[wxman57]

And don't forget that many of the utility companies are having issues with their generation plants due to low water. Water is needed for cooling. Without water (soon), a number of generation units will need to be shut down. This isn't such a big issue if we have a mild winter, but it could mean many rolling blackouts across Texas next summer. That doesn't even consider the many units that will need to be shut down due to more strict EPA rules in 2012. ERCOT is going to be really pushed beyond its max next year if we don't get widespread heavy rain before then.

Glad I had that generator transfer switch installed next to my electric panel.

Oh, and as I type this, I see on TWC that it's flooding in the desert (Las Vegas).

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

StormClouds63:

You're just full of cheery news.

SaskatchewanScreamer:

30 years of drought? Really? You're right, this will shape population patterns. Unlike the 30s though this affects highly populated areas and the Eastern part of Texas. I figure the next item on the agenda though, without restoring rains, is acute water quality problems and shortages. Wells will eventually go dry and that is where much of the water supply in SE Texas comes from. As for N Texas... surface water and that is even worse. Rain will return someday but will we be able to sustain even a portion of life as we know it today in what is functionally becoming a desert?

Grasses and forb seeds will survive and come up but trees are what make E Texas... they will not return soon of course.

I would've guessed your native trees will also come from seeds (if native they must be prepared for drought years):

Lying in the rain shadow of the great Rocky Mountains, the province of Saskatchewan is susceptible to frequent and often severe droughts. Especially vulnerable to drought is the semi-arid Palliser Triangle region in the south of the province. In meteorological terms, a drought is an extended period of below-normal precipitation (rain or snow). A drought may last for several months or for many years; it may affect a single municipality or the entire province; and it may occur in any season. Saskatchewan has had many droughts since instrumental Climate records began in the 1880s. Southwestern Saskatchewan experienced severe drought for six years between 1917 and 1926. This was soon followed by the “dust bowl” conditions of 1929 to 1937, which gave rise to one of the most destructive prairie drought periods of the 20th century. However, the size and intensity of the 1961 drought exceeded even that of the Dirty Thirties. In 1961 the driest parts of the province received only 45% of normal precipitation. Rivaling the desert-like conditions of the 1930s, the late 1980s were also extremely dry and warm: in 1988 southern Saskatchewan received only 50% of normal precipitation and recorded one of its hottest summers ever. The most recent drought period was 2000–03; Saskatchewan recorded its driest year in more than a century in 2001. Scientists claim that 20th century droughts were relatively moderate and short-lived compared to those of previous centuries. Analyses of historical proxy data from tree-rings and lake sediment cores indicate that severe and prolonged drought periods (i.e., up to several decades) occurred on the southern Prairies in the early 1600s, late 1700s, and mid-1800s. These so-called super-droughts are characteristic of a dry, continental-type climate, and thus future drought events of similar magnitude are likely to occur in Saskatchewan. The social and economic implications of drought in the province are wide-ranging. Droughts threaten wetlands and waterfowl, diminish municipal water supplies, heighten the risk of forest fires, reduce crop yields, and disrupt livestock production. Due to the importance of agriculture in Saskatchewan, economic losses from drought can be crippling. In 1961—generally considered Saskatchewan’s worst drought year—losses to prairie Wheat production alone totaled $668 million. The 1986–88 drought also triggered staggering losses (e.g., a $4 billion drop in grain exports) to Canadian agriculture. Saskatchewan farmers have adopted a range of water and soil moisture conservation strategies to combat the effects of drought. During periods of below-normal precipitation, Irrigation systems, wells, dugouts, and reservoirs provide farmers with a stable water supply; and shelterbelts, grass barriers, stubble mulching, minimum tillage, and reduced summer fallow help farmers retain valuable soil moisture.

The above skips from 88 to 2000 but there were many dry years of less severity in between (or else we had hail or heavy rains that destroyed the crops). The above article doesn't cover the northern grain growing plains that had drought when my area did get the rains. Just in the past two years it was bone dry up to June (rains finally came but the tension is there).


The population of my province was also controlled by drought (until oil and fertilizer and other minerals etc became so hot). The Great Plains were never meant to carry so many people or animals re Texas cattle herds (nor was this continent or world for that matter). For 100 years Saskatchewan's population stayed just at or below 1 million (now that is quickly, in Saskatchewan terms ;D, changing).

Corb's song really tells of the wonder we had here when the biblical rains finally came last year (he mentions it was a thousand years without the stuff):
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDY6bWT5oTM[/youtube]

or Ian Tyson's (song was written re Alberta but fits SK too:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdEQaN52n6g&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

Up here we are drylanders...we don't know what to do with water (listen to Tyson's song ;o)

Tireman I feel so bad for all of you...your temps now are what we usually have in bad drought years...except in the '30's when we hit 113F