ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST MON SEP 12 2011

ALTHOUGH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...MARIA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED A BIT CLOSER TO THE CENTER. HOWEVER...LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE
IMAGES SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LESS DEFINED AND
THE COVERAGE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS 24 HOURS
AGO. WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB UNCHANGED AND THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION GENERALLY NO DIFFERENT THAN EARLIER...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. THE PREVAILING WESTERLY SHEAR
OVER MARIA IS NOT LIKELY TO DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ANY INTENSIFICATION WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER AFTER
ABOUT 60 HOURS...MAKING THE SURVIVAL OF MARIA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEYOND THAT TIME QUESTIONABLE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. A 96-HOUR FORECAST POINT IS
INDICATED...THOUGH THE GUIDANCE IS AMBIGUOUS AS TO WHETHER THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE A VIABLE ENTITY AT THAT TIME. AN
ALTERNATIVE AND EQUALLY PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR MARIA TO
SUCCUMB TO THE HIGH SHEAR...BECOME A SHALLOW CYCLONE..AND
DISSIPATE.

THE POOR DEFINITION OF THE CENTER AND NO RECENT MICROWAVE DATA HAS
MADE IT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE INITIAL MOTION...BUT IT APPEARS AS
IF MARIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. THE
STORM HAS TEMPORARILY BEEN TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES TO ITS EAST AND WEST. WITHIN ABOUT 24
HOURS...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BE CAUGHT UP IN A DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. AN
ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR
IN 48-72 HOURS AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY STABLE AND
THE SPREAD IS REASONABLY SMALL...MAKING ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES
NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST.

A CREDIBLE 40-KT SHIP REPORT ABOUT 175 N MI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OF MARIA WAS USED TO EXPAND THE WIND RADIUS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 21.3N 67.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 22.3N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 24.0N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 26.3N 69.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 29.3N 68.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 37.5N 64.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 48.5N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Shuriken]

Maria could head west under either of the following scenarios:

1) she moves more slowly than normal (i.e., does not gain latitude) and is stripped to a naked swirl which is left behind by the trough, then to move west as the ridge builds behind the trough.

2) she cyclonic loops, then reverses as the ridge builds in behind the trough.

[AJC3]

Maria could head west under either of the following scenarios:

1) she moves more slowly than normal (i.e., does not gain latitude) and is stripped to a naked swirl which is left behind by the trough, then to move west as the ridge builds behind the trough.

2) she cyclonic loops, then reverses as the ridge builds in behind the trough.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Of course, if #1 was to occur, it wouldn't really be "Maria" per se anymore, just a naked swirl (as you mention) that would be deforming pretty rapidly in a very hostile shear and thermodynamic environment. And the #2 hypothetical is just that, since there is absolutely nothing in the model guidance to suggest anything close to this will happen - the flow over the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic is forecast to remain zonal (W-E) for the foreseeable future following the trough passage.

When talking about the actual probability of something like that happening, I'd put it somewhere between .01 and .001 percent

[ROCK]

she doesnt look like she is in a hurry to do anything.....just sitting there...notice convection building to the south towards PR....very close now to getting PR wet...

[GCANE]

Huge hot-tower firing

[cycloneye]

she doesnt look like she is in a hurry to do anything.....just sitting there...notice convection building to the south towards PR....very close now to getting PR wet...

You bet. Since yesterday afternoon the rains started in the Eastern part but look now. Massive floodings occuring. I am posting news of that on both the Caribbean thread at USA & Caribbean weather forum as well at the thread at the top of this forum.

[GCANE]

TUTT is positioned NE of the LLC.

Not a bad place to form a poleward outflow channel.

200mb vorticity is not bad directly over the LLC.

She may try and get her act together today.

[NDG]

Looking at the first vis sat loop this morning, it seems to me that its COC is near 21N and 21.9N like estimated by the NHC.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 13 2011

THE STRUCTURE OF MARIA HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS MORNING. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL EXPOSED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF SHEAR AS SHOWN IN THE SHIPS MODEL
AND UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF MARIA CAUSING THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD WITHIN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS NEVER BECOME IDEAL FOR INTENSIFICATION ACCORDING TO THE
GLOBAL MODELS...WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
MARIA AHEAD OF THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME
MODEST STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE LGEM
MODELS. MARIA SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS...AND THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
LOW BY 96 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/05. MARIA WILL ACCELERATE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD TURN A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH
BY 48 HOURS. A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS
AS MARIA IS ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...LYING TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BETWEEN THE RELIABLE ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 22.1N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 23.6N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 26.1N 68.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 29.2N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 33.2N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 43.0N 57.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 17/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
200 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2011

...MARIA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 67.9W
ABOUT 320 MI...505 KM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A
FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL PASS WEST OF BERMUDA ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...
325 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
TO 20 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[OuterBanker]

I see Cycloneye hasn't posted today. Between Emily, Irene and Maria he must be stocking his ark and he hasn't had the time to post yet.

BTW, Cycloneye are you now measuring rain in feet?

[cycloneye]

I see Cycloneye hasn't posted today. Between Emily, Irene and Maria he must be stocking his ark and he hasn't had the time to post yet.

BTW, Cycloneye are you now measuring rain in feet?

I have been posting today on the Caribbean thread at USA & Caribbean Weather forum all the flood warnings that have been issued and on the thread at the top of this forum about the news.

Inches,not feet. So far since this began a little over 10 inches has falled. Hopefully,it will not surpass the 20 inches that the tail of Irene brought.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2011

THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO RELAX A LITTLE OVER
MARIA...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION. GIVEN THE DECREASE IN SHEAR...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MARIA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WITH THE CYCLONE
PEAKING AT 55 KT IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE
BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AND HWRF
THROUGH 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THAT MARIA WILL BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 3 AND BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
LOW BY DAY 4.

AFTER STALLING FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...THE CENTER OF MARIA
HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DUE TO THE
RECENT JUMPY MOTION...A LONGER TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
355/07 IS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. MARIA SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BETWEEN THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY 48
HOURS...MARIA WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND ONLY
COSMETIC CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST BEYOND 24
HOURS. THROUGH THAT TIME...THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE
EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION.

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THAT ISLAND AT THIS TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 22.8N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 24.1N 68.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 27.1N 68.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 30.6N 68.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 35.0N 66.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 48.5N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

Finnally on the move? As more fast it moves,the tail will go away from PR to stop the rain event we have being enduring.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 67.9W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[GCANE]

Convection picking up and firing close to the LLC.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmsrbdc&storm_identifier=AL142011&starting_image=2011AL14_4KMSRBDC_201109131445.jpg

Also, WV showing outflow expanding in all quads.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-wv.html

Another hot-tower success story.

NHC says a 48hr window of opportunity.

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone has just developed over Hispaniola

[crimi481]

I give slight possibility of a Maria "split" ? Ya Dink?
Is that a smaller surface low - near S.W. Quad?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-ir2.html

[AdamFirst]

It's a very dry day here in central Florida. It's still in the upper 80s but it was breezy, sunny and VERY pleasant. Very fall-like. That's the trough punting Maria toward Bermuda.

Great day to be outside.

[Gustywind]

Here is a loop of Maria...

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2011

...MARIA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 68.0W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL PASS WEST OF BERMUDA
ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...
280 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH RAINS OVER PUERTO RICO HAVE DIMINISHED...MARIA
HAS LIKELY PRODUCED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PUERTO
RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD STILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH