WPAC: ROKE - Post-Tropical (18W)

[Amoygal]

Thanks, Amoygal--

I don't know why--I can't get JTWC in the hotel or here in the office!

I'm out of here on Friday, so I think I'll be OK.

Off topic--since you live in Taiwan, any suggestions for fun things to do in Taipei? I have a free day/evening tomorrow. Please feel free to PM me!

My pleasure!

Definitely hit Taipei 101, especially as the air has been so clear lately. The Chiang Kai Shek Memorial is also pretty impressive. If you're looking to try some local food, head to Din Tai Fung (super famous Taipei dumpling restaurant). There is a new one in the basement of the mall at Taipei 101 (next to Jason's supermarket). Order the xiao long bao. The night markets are always fun to experience. The night market in Shi Lin (JianTan MRT station) is the most famous. If you had more time, I would recommend heading to Yangmingshan (mountain just north of Taipei) or Jiufen and the cliffs at LongDong (northeast coast). Hit them up on a return trip. Have fun! Taipei is a fabulous city.

And to stay on topic...yeah, I think you'll get out before any chance of a storm hits Taiwan.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Damn love Din Tai Fung! One of my favourite restaurants!!

GFS going for the eventual track into mainland Japan whereas UKMET going for the bed south into Taiwan. I've got a tentative trip planned to one of the volcanoes in Kyushu at some point soon so I might try and time it with Roke should it make its way up there.

GFS and ECM keen on strengthening this eventually!

[wjs3]

UKMET has been out to lunch in the Atlantic. Way, way overdoing ridging and missing to the west on everything. Bet it's the same here.

Sounds like I'm in the clear Typhoon-wise.

I speak no Mandarin nor Taiwanese...I'll figure things out, but how hard is it going to be for me in the night market and getting to Taipei 101, etc?

Thanks

[phwxenthusiast]

i don't know, UKMET has been performing well this past month based on this Verification Graph for the NH (From NCEP)...



as expected, Euro leads the pack then UKMET; then the Canadian, GFS, and NOGAPS trading places...

as for Roke, right now, imho, i'm favoring the more SW-erly track across ECS... but then again by late next week, another trough is coming in that should pick up Roke and bring it towards Kyushu...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[wjs3]

Oh, c'mon--how dare you confuse my allegations with facts?

So, now that you make me check my facts, I was actually recalling runs of the UKMET and GFDL that were well west of the Euro and GFS early on in Irene (prior to the G IV mission). NHC mentioned it in their discussion at 11 PM on 8/21:

MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL
AND UKMET...ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TURNING IRENE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD REMAINS IN THE SHARPNESS OF THIS TURN
IN THE MODEL SUITE. FOR THIS CYCLE THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED BACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF
MODELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UKMET AND GFDL FARTHER WEST.

And again at 5 AM the next day...

THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND GFDN MODELS
ARE THE RIGHTMOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND KEEP IRENE
WELL EAST OF FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE UKMET AND THE GFDL MODELS ARE
THE LEFTMOST OF THE MODELS AND TAKE IRENE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA.


I'll be interested in seeing full on track validations at the end of the season. My judgment thus far is that the Euro and GFS have been pretty stellar.

Thanks for the info!

[phwxenthusiast]

Oh, c'mon--how dare you confuse my allegations with facts?

So, now that you make me check my facts, I was actually recalling runs of the UKMET and GFDL that were well west of the Euro and GFS early on in Irene (prior to the G IV mission). NHC mentioned it in their discussion at 11 PM on 8/21:

MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL
AND UKMET...ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TURNING IRENE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD REMAINS IN THE SHARPNESS OF THIS TURN
IN THE MODEL SUITE. FOR THIS CYCLE THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED BACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF
MODELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UKMET AND GFDL FARTHER WEST.

And again at 5 AM the next day...

THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND GFDN MODELS
ARE THE RIGHTMOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND KEEP IRENE
WELL EAST OF FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE UKMET AND THE GFDL MODELS ARE
THE LEFTMOST OF THE MODELS AND TAKE IRENE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA.


I'll be interested in seeing full on track validations at the end of the season. My judgment thus far is that the Euro and GFS have been pretty stellar.

Thanks for the info!

oh yeah with TC specifically, i couldn't agree more!! i also monitor the Atl since i live in the US so yeah i've seen how it was consistent with its run to run solutions yet keeps on remaining on the guidance envelope lol...

the graph i posted is for 500mb and i have no idea how they determine that lol

[euro6208]

looks like roke doesn't want to go away soon. euro has this moving very slowly around the okinawa area then strengthening faster as it heads for poor japan.... may god bless everyone in his path...

[Amoygal]

UKMET has been out to lunch in the Atlantic. Way, way overdoing ridging and missing to the west on everything. Bet it's the same here.

Sounds like I'm in the clear Typhoon-wise.

I speak no Mandarin nor Taiwanese...I'll figure things out, but how hard is it going to be for me in the night market and getting to Taipei 101, etc?

Thanks

As far as the night market goes...the easiest thing to do is take the MRT (subway) to Jiantan station (on the red line). It's right there, and you will miss traffic that way. You should be able to make yourself understood with the vendors just by pointing and gesturing, if nothing else. Some will speak a little English. I would take a taxi to 101. Most taxi drivers should know what you mean if you say "1-oh-1" or you can try "ee-ling-ee" (the Mandarin pronunciation). You can order in English at Din Tai Fung, and they have an English menu with pictures. Chiang Kai Shek Memorial has its own MRT stop...no problems there.

[rdhdstpchld]

UKMET has been out to lunch in the Atlantic. Way, way overdoing ridging and missing to the west on everything. Bet it's the same here.

Sounds like I'm in the clear Typhoon-wise.

I speak no Mandarin nor Taiwanese...I'll figure things out, but how hard is it going to be for me in the night market and getting to Taipei 101, etc?

Thanks

As far as the night market goes...the easiest thing to do is take the MRT (subway) to Jiantan station (on the red line). It's right there, and you will miss traffic that way. You should be able to make yourself understood with the vendors just by pointing and gesturing, if nothing else. Some will speak a little English. I would take a taxi to 101. Most taxi drivers should know what you mean if you say "1-oh-1" or you can try "ee-ling-ee" (the Mandarin pronunciation). You can order in English at Din Tai Fung, and they have an English menu with pictures. Chiang Kai Shek Memorial has its own MRT stop...no problems there.

I thought the night market was "meh" - as for finding it, your nose will lead you...follow the smell of the "stinky tofu" once you get off the MRT as mentioned above. I wish we had spent more time downtown in the business district around Taipei 101. We took the MRT down and walked the rest of the way - but there are some really cool shopping areas to visit down there and it's SO much cleaner than up where we stayed (up by the Howard) --

[StormingB81]

Funny...JMA has the storm comming to Okinawa Sat Night....JTWC has it getting here about midnight monday thats like over 24 hours difference!

[wjs3]

Thanks for all the tips. Am staying at the Sheraton, so have easy access to MRT to make this work. I'll let you know how it goes!

...I've heard about the sticky tofu smell...

[rdhdstpchld]

Thanks for all the tips. Am staying at the Sheraton, so have easy access to MRT to make this work. I'll let you know how it goes!

...I've heard about the sticky tofu smell...

reminded me of some of the less savory stops on the NY city subways (up around the 200s)

[wjs3]

OK. Noted. And, a bit concerned.

Would appreciate it (as I still can't get to it) if you all posted JTWC forecasts for Roke. I can get to JMA, but still not to JTWC. Don't know why!

Thanks again for pointers. Will take any more you have!

[dexterlabio]

Apparently, JTWC downgraded this into a TD, but still expecting reintensification.

[StormingB81]

and now they have moved it up with JMA with it being here Sat evening which means TCCOR's will start tomorrow if that is the case seeing it is forecasted to hit above 50 knots before hitting us..however this thing has changed more times then i can keep track!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Good day everyone, busy day yet again here, any how I took sometime and also tossed a video together. Really a tough one on this storm but just some thoughts.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEOIWlZDja0[/youtube]

[Chacor]

I move halfway across the world and Roke's still barely anything. Bit surprised.

[P.K.]

WTPQ21 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1115 ROKE (1115)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 25.6N 133.8E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 26.8N 129.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 161800UTC 26.9N 128.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 171800UTC 26.9N 128.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[phwxenthusiast]

starting to consolidate now.. still poor convective activity but i'm guessing that LLCC is no longer exposed anymore...

[StormingB81]

back up to a tropical storm again...ECMWF has it staying weak until it gets south of OKinawa then getting stronger when it hits Okinawa for a 2nd time...