WOCN31 CWHX 151145
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9:04 AM ADT THURSDAY
15 SEPTEMBER 2011.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA.
FOR TROPICAL STORM MARIA.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT.
TROPICAL STORM MARIA MAY REACH HURRICANE STATUS TODAY THEN
INTERACT WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH WITH WIND AND RAIN
OVER MUCH OF ATLANTIC CANADA.
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==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9:00 AM ADT.
LOCATION: ABOUT 31.4 NORTH 68.0 WEST.
ABOUT 330 KILOMETRES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 110 KM/HOUR.
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHERLY AT 46 KM/H.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 MB.
2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.
THE REMNANTS OF MARIA ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE/INTERACT WITH A
DEVELOPING TROUGH TO ITS NORTH THAT WILL CONNECT TO A MUCH LARGER
NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER LABRADOR.
OUR LATEST TRACK (ON THE
http://WWW.HURRICANES.CA WEBSITE) SHOWS MARIA
PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER - IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO PORTRAY THE COMPLEXITY OF
THE MERGING OF MARIA'S WINDS AND MOISTURE WITH THE NON-TROPICAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS TO ITS NORTH WITH A SINGLE TRACK LINE.
A. WIND.
THERE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ATLANTIC CANADA ON FRIDAY
AS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH NORTH OF MARIA DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION. THE HIGHEST WINDS DIRECTLY FROM MARIA WILL LIKELY PASS
OFFSHORE - SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. BUT A SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK TO
THE NORTHWEST WOULD INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF 100 KM/H WIND GUSTS
ON THE AVALON PENINSULA.
B. RAINFALL.
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MANY PARTS OF ATLANTIC CANADA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY FROM THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND THE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF
MARIA. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE TROUGH WHERE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS. THIS REGION INCLUDES
EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WHERE 50 TO 80 MILLIMETRES MAY FALL.
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH LESSER TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER
NOVA SCOTIA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.
NOTE THAT WHENEVER MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL STORM FEEDS INTO A
FRONT/TROUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT RAINFALL RATES OF 15 TO 25 MILLIMETRES
PER HOUR WOULD OCCUR. SUCH RATES COULD LEAD TO FLASH-TYPE FLOODING
IN DITCHES AND SMALL RIVERS ESPECIALLY WHERE TERRAIN IS STEEP.
LOCAL FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS IS POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY, RIVER WATER
LEVELS ARE AT OR BELOW NORMAL OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. KEEP IN
MIND HOWEVER THAT SMALLER RIVERS/CREEKS WILL RESPOND MORE QUICKLY TO
HEAVY RAIN THAN LARGER ONES.
RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR RAMEA CONNAIGRE EAST TO THE
AVALON PENINSULA THEN NORTH TO BONAVISTA AND TERRA NOVA PARK.
C. SURGE/WAVES.
MOST COASTAL REGIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND CAN EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD ON
FRIDAY AS THE WEATHER SYSTEMS INTERACT. WE DO NOT FORSEE ANY
EXCEPTIONAL WAVE OR SURGE ACTIVITY DUE TO MARIA ITSELF AT THIS POINT,
BUT PLEASE STAY TUNED TO UPCOMING BULLETINS. ONE FACTOR THAT WILL
HELP MINIMISE IMPACTS IS A RUN OF LOWER THAN AVERAGE TIDES THIS
WEEKEND.
THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE SOUTH OF MARIA AND SHOULD REACH 4 TO 7
METRES LATE FRIDAY, MAINLY OVER THE GRAND BANKS.
SURGE AND WAVE ACTIVITY FROM THE MUCH LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW THAT
DRAWS MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM MARIA COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF STORM SURGE INTO THE WEEKEND.
SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RISK FOR LARGE WAVES AND
STORM SURGE WOULD BE WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE LABRADOR COAST WITH
A LESSER RISK FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND.
3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND ATLANTIC CANADA ON
FRIDAY - EITHER FROM MARIA, THE LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW, OR THE
TROUGH CONNECTING THEM.
VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:
- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.
- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.
- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.
- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.
PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.
END/MERCER/FOGARTY