Season Cancel!

[sandyb]

The fall cold front came through the New Orleans area on Sept. 5th....! Really? I have no memory of the fall cold front comin through this early! "Usually" the season is by all intensive purposes "Over" Once the fall cold front passes through.....Fwiw...it's depressing lookin at water vapor loops lately, and I'm personally trying to squeeze in as much beach and pool time as possible in anticipation of an early winter!

It's been a very hot, humid summer here in eastern NC. Forecast to be another 90 degree day. Tomorrow's forecast, highs in the upper 60's! That's a cold front and I believe someone turned on the autumn switch!

I am so excited about the cooler weather although it won't last here in eastern NC we will more hot weather thu mid oct as we dont close the pool at the condos until the middle of Oct and people still use it up till then. I have not heard 60's for highs but low 70's with showers but sure hope for the 60's

Good, I can finish my Irene cleanup and actually enjoy being outdoors..........

I hope you are right about the 60's even colder is good with me, we sure have had a hot summer some rain they say is coming with those cooler temps only problem is here in eastern nc we can get hot again as we usually have it pretty warm thru much of Oct.

[somethingfunny]

Everybody, I think our perspectives on this season have been skewed by the huge number of weak tropical storms that have formed so far. Think of them as bonus storms that normally wouldn't have formed if sea level pressures weren't so low and SSTs and vorticity weren't so high.

Instead of being 14/3/2, remove half those tropical storms. If we were 7/3/2 on September 15, well that would be pretty impressive. Not just impressive, but about what you expect during a busy La Nina season. La Ninas typically start slow and end strong.

Let's look at some other recent La Nina seasons, as of September 15:

1996: 8/6/4 Final numbers: 13/9/6 or 5/3/2 after Sept.15
1998: 6/3/1 (Georges was first named 9/16) Final numbers: 14/10/3 or 8/7/2 after Sept.15
1999: 7/5/4 (Gert and Floyd were both majors at this point) Final numbers: 12/8/5 or 5/3/1 after Sept.15
2000: 6/3/1 (Gordon was named 9/16 and Florence waffled back and forth from wave to depression until being named 9/21) Final numbers: 15/8/3 or 9/5/2 after Sept.15
2001: 7/2/2 (Gabrielle was a tropical storm, became a hurricane 9/17) Final numbers: 15/9/4 or 8/7/2 after Sept.15
2003: 9/5/2 (Isabel was the only game in town from 9/8 to 9/24, can you say LULL? ) Final numbers: 16/7/3 or 7/2/1 after Sept.15
2007: 9/3/2 Final numbers: 15/6/2 or 6/3/0 after Sept.15
2008: 10/5/3 Final numbers: 16/8/5 or 6/3/2 after Sept.15
2010: 11/5/4 (Igor and Julia were both Cat4 on this date; Karl was still a tropical storm) Final numbers: 19/12/5 or 8/7/1 after Sept.15

In conclusion: stop whining!!! We have alot of hurricane season to go and this La Nina is alot like those years. The pattern so far especially reminds me of 2000/2001. The only difference is here we've had alot of weak tropical storms of frontal origin inflating the numbers and throwing off the ratio of named storms to hurricanes.

[StormClouds63]

[Dave]

Get ready for a cold one tonight & I'm not talking about what we drink up here in the Ohio River Valley. 42 forecasted low for my area.

[gigabite]

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The point being is that "el nino" is coming. Just not this year.

What I have been doing in my attempts of advanced decadal modeling is to use a mechanism such as the law of gravitation to explain how the tidal bulge manages to affect the minus SOI. I use just the minus SOI as a starting point. The following research uses the June, July, August outlook. That might be too much work. A 30 percent correlation is not a bad relationship I don’t think you will get that using Kelvin Waves.


ABSTRACT OF
http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Resear ... r2006a.pdf
The authors build on their efforts to understand and predict coastal hurricane activity by developing
statistical seasonal forecast models that can be used operationally. The modeling strategy uses May–June
averaged values representing the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Southern Oscillation index (SOI),
and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation to predict the probabilities of observing U.S. hurricanes in the
months ahead (July–November). The models are developed using a Bayesian approach and make use of
data that extend back to 1851 with the earlier hurricane counts (prior to 1899) treated as less certain relative
to the later counts. Out-of-sample hindcast skill is assessed using the mean-squared prediction error within
a hold-one-out cross-validation exercise. Skill levels are compared to climatology. Predictions show skill
above climatology, especially using the NAO
SOI and the NAO-only models. When the springtime NAO
values are below normal, there is a heightened risk of U.S. hurricane activity relative to climatology. The
preliminary NAO value for 2005 is 0.565 standard deviations so the NAO-only model predicts a 13%
increase over climatology of observing three or more U.S. hurricanes.

[Patrick99]

Yeah, I really have had very low interest following this season, the tropics have been garbage this year. If the pattern was always this trough-y, I think very few people would bother following tropical weather.

I'm guessing that the season really is pretty much over. I'm basing this on the idea that over the last few years, every single "season" seems to be starting and finishing earlier than usual. Winter seems to come ever earlier, and then blow its wad by mid-January, followed by an early start to spring and then the tropics, which finish in any meaningful capacity by mid-September.

It sure seems like we used to get more storms in September down in FL than we have in the modern era. Why has the Bermuda extension of the Atlantic high been so non-existent?

[LaBreeze]

Yeah, I really have had very low interest following this season, the tropics have been garbage this year. If the pattern was always this trough-y, I think very few people would bother following tropical weather.

I'm guessing that the season really is pretty much over. I'm basing this on the idea that over the last few years, every single "season" seems to be starting and finishing earlier than usual. Winter seems to come ever earlier, and then blow its wad by mid-January, followed by an early start to spring and then the tropics, which finish in any meaningful capacity by mid-September.

It sure seems like we used to get more storms in September down in FL than we have in the modern era. Why has the Bermuda extension of the Atlantic high been so non-existent?

I'm thinking the same thing, Patrick99. I'm thinking the season is pretty much over for the most part as well.

[bexar]

I've already given up on this season... it's just so pathetic

I am now looking forward for 2012

[FireRat]

Still not as drab as 2006, that year's the modern era's benchmark for a slow season heh heh.

[Macrocane]

Still not as drab as 2006, that year's the modern era's benchmark for a slow season heh heh.

No it's not, 2009 is the benchmark for a slow season, if it wasn't for the Pacific basins I would have been so bored weather-wise that year.

[FireRat]

You got a good point there Macrocane.

I still remember hurricane Bill however, that was quite an impressive CV hurricane that stood up for the rest of that season. 2006's storms didn't even hit C4. And the only 2 cat 3's were fishies. Bill was a bit more threatening but thankfully didn't result in disaster either.

[rainstorm]

Yeah, I really have had very low interest following this season, the tropics have been garbage this year. If the pattern was always this trough-y, I think very few people would bother following tropical weather.

I'm guessing that the season really is pretty much over. I'm basing this on the idea that over the last few years, every single "season" seems to be starting and finishing earlier than usual. Winter seems to come ever earlier, and then blow its wad by mid-January, followed by an early start to spring and then the tropics, which finish in any meaningful capacity by mid-September.

It sure seems like we used to get more storms in September down in FL than we have in the modern era. Why has the Bermuda extension of the Atlantic high been so non-existent?

i think most people who follow the tropics hope next season has a bermuda high. of course, we will probably have an el nino, lol. the reason we no longer have bermuda highs is because the last 3 years we have had a huge high parked over texas. if in late may next year people are talking about texas being hot and dry for the summer then it will be a repeat of the last 3 years.

[Tropics Guy]

Well, with the fall pattern establishing itself, unless we get something to brew in the Carib, think that the season could be coming to a end soon.....

TG

[vbhoutex]

Yeah, I really have had very low interest following this season, the tropics have been garbage this year. If the pattern was always this trough-y, I think very few people would bother following tropical weather.

I'm guessing that the season really is pretty much over. I'm basing this on the idea that over the last few years, every single "season" seems to be starting and finishing earlier than usual. Winter seems to come ever earlier, and then blow its wad by mid-January, followed by an early start to spring and then the tropics, which finish in any meaningful capacity by mid-September.

It sure seems like we used to get more storms in September down in FL than we have in the modern era. Why has the Bermuda extension of the Atlantic high been so non-existent?

i think most people who follow the tropics hope next season has a bermuda high. of course, we will probably have an el nino, lol. the reason we no longer have bermuda highs is because the last 3 years we have had a huge high parked over texas. if in late may next year people are talking about texas being hot and dry for the summer then it will be a repeat of the last 3 years.

Current thought process for many is that we will continue our drought, therefore hot and dry well into next year. If that is the case then I would expect(without looking at ALL factors at this point) that we could have another year similar to the last 3 in the tropics. I pray everyone of them is wrong!!!(about the hot and dry!)

[rainstorm]

the drought has to end sometime, lets hope its soon

[gatorcane]

There is still alot of season left. Cape Verde season may be just about over it looks like now that it has been a while since we have had a Cape Verde system.

But the Western Caribbean/Caribbean/Bahamas/GOM are still open for business. With La Nina in the picture, really think you see it crank up towards the end of the month. October will pick up. Climatology suggests another peak in mid October.

Here in South FL, until we get a "signficant" front to pass through...which typically happens during the third week of October, we are open for business.

[gigabite]

Uploaded with [URL=http://imageshack.us]ImageShack.us[/URL

the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The SOI is computed from fluctuations in the surface air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia.[17] El Niño episodes are associated with negative values of the SOI, meaning that the pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin is relatively small.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B ... scillation

The advantage of using a tool like this is, once it is perfected it could help us connect the dots earlier. The latitude graph is flat until 2013 and falls to a post 1996 low and could be a precursor to a major el nino event.

ANALOG 1998

http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/climate/cliedit.html

[hurricanetrack]

So, looking at the global models, there is nothing to hang your hat on for the next week to 10 days. We could easily end September with no additional named storms, not very likely considering climatology but sometimes you have to look out the window and see what is really going on. Right now, I see no significant chances of tropical storm formation, let alone one that will affect land and certainly NOT the United States.

The question then becomes: what happened? Once again, we had a forecast from several major agencies that the season had a high chance of being very active with way more hurricanes than we have seen. It would be easy to just dismiss it as "well, it was not a 100% guarantee" and so that's that. What I fail to understand is how, for the second year in a row, the giant signal of the ridge over Texas and vicinity and the corresponding hole in the western portion of the subtropical ridge was not seen by any long range models. Or was it? How could something this big be overlooked or simply not picked up on by long range guidance? I have not looked, but there are those on here who may have. Were there clues back in the spring that we would be locked in to this pattern? If so, then perhaps the seasonal forecasts should have had a mention of this.... I just find it odd that for the second year in a row, with the exception of Irene, which fortunately lost most of its wind punch before landfall, nothing could get much past 70W. As VB said further up in the thread, I guess if we see 100+ temps set up again all summer in TX that we can almost bank on what will happen NEXT Aug/September.

Now, as for the quality of the cyclones this year? I give up. I have no idea why they have been so fickle, weakening suddenly, etc etc. We've had so many frontal developments too. This is not typical of a busy MDR season. And look, the biggest impact from the two landfalls were over the Northeast! Vermont was the hardest hit state this season. Did anyone ever thing THAT would happen? I would love to hear your thoughts on what happened so far this season to cause what we have seen and whether or not it could have been picked up by CSU, NOAA, TSR and Weatherbell ahead of time.

[cycloneye]

Mark,to make it short, I think one of the main reasons this 2011 season has behaved the way it has done is the below normal vertical inestability.

[blp]

cycloneye you hit the nail on the head. The instability has been usually low for last two years. I wish someone could explain why this has happened. I can't see any other variable that has been negative this year. It goes to show you why 2005 was such an anomaly in that so many factors were favorable and the one unfavorable factor was the African SAL which turned out to be a bad thing for the US with development shifted further west.