Global model runs discussion

HurricaneMaster_PR · #2881 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Fri Sep 16, 2011 11:48 am

GFS 12Z= What a crazy run regarding the system that will develop within the next days in the Central Atlantic. First hits Venezuela and then moves all the way up and pass through Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic as a strong system...Ends near Florida

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

SoupBone · #2882 Postby **SoupBone** » Fri Sep 16, 2011 11:51 am

Macrocane wrote::uarrow: Yep my comment was based on climatology, in other years there have been long periods of inactivity on Septmeber but they don't last through October unless it's an El Niño year, for example look at 2008 there was a big lull aftr Josephine but at the end of september Kyle and Laura formed, so I think that the atcivity should peak up again by the end of the month. Besides the models have been sniffing something out there, and the CMC, UKMET and FIM have been consistent developing a Cape Verde cyclone, I know they are not the most reliable models but they could be right this time.

Gotcha, thanks for the explanation.

#2883 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 16, 2011 11:58 am

HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:GFS 12Z= What a crazy run regarding the system that will develop within the next days in the Central Atlantic. First hits Venezuela and then moves all the way up and pass through Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic as a strong system...Ends near Florida

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

That is the low pressure in front of P29L. It also develops the pouch. Waiting for the other models to see more consistency.

#2884 Postby **somethingfunny** » Fri Sep 16, 2011 2:29 pm

HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:GFS 12Z= What a crazy run regarding the system that will develop within the next days in the Central Atlantic. First hits Venezuela and then moves all the way up and pass through Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic as a strong system...Ends near Florida

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Here, have an analog!

#2885 Postby **AJC3** » Fri Sep 16, 2011 3:15 pm

cycloneye wrote:
HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:GFS 12Z= What a crazy run regarding the system that will develop within the next days in the Central Atlantic. First hits Venezuela and then moves all the way up and pass through Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic as a strong system...Ends near Florida

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

That is the low pressure in front of P29L. It also develops the pouch. Waiting for the other models to see more consistency.

Hi Luis. The way I'm reading the 12Z run, it's a broad area of low pressure that includes pouch 29L which the GFS is spins up and moves into SOAM and then toward FL in 14-16 days. It's a vortmax still over Africa behind the pouch that emerges by Sunday that the run also spins up.

*The usually fantasyland disclaimers apply*

DESTRUCTION5 · #2886 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Sep 16, 2011 3:43 pm

AJC3 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:GFS 12Z= What a crazy run regarding the system that will develop within the next days in the Central Atlantic. First hits Venezuela and then moves all the way up and pass through Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic as a strong system...Ends near Florida

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

That is the low pressure in front of P29L. It also develops the pouch. Waiting for the other models to see more consistency.

Hi Luis. The way I'm reading the 12Z run, it's a broad area of low pressure that includes pouch 29L which the GFS is spins up and moves into SOAM and then toward FL in 14-16 days. It's a vortmax still over Africa behind the pouch that emerges by Sunday that the run also spins up.

*The usually fantasyland disclaimers apply*

Be sure to include that in the Am EXTD Forecast for MLB...LOL :wink:

#2887 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 16, 2011 4:42 pm

*The usually fantasyland disclaimers apply*

That is right Tony.

Let's see what the models have in the next runs regarding P29L.

#2888 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 16, 2011 5:52 pm

The 18z GFS develops pouch P29L,but in this run it not gets into the Caribbean. Also, is again with a Western Caribbean system.

18z GFS loop

weatherwindow · #2889 Postby **weatherwindow** » Fri Sep 16, 2011 7:32 pm

cycloneye wrote:The 18z GFS develops pouch P29L,but in this run it not gets into the Caribbean. Also, is again with a Western Caribbean system.

18z GFS loop

luis, the ecmrf ensemble picks up on the western caribbean system at 240 but no evidence of CV pouch.

Link: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens.html

#2890 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 16, 2011 11:54 pm

00z GFS on Fantasyland timeframe develops the Western Caribbean system,this time tracking towards the SE GOM.

Note= All model runs of invest 97L are being posted at the 97L models thread.

00z GFS loop

#2891 Postby **Extratropical94** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 1:38 am

00Z GFS at +144 also has a 40-knot wind barb next to a TC WNW of the CV islands at about 18N. Where does this come from?! I thought conditions up there are flat-out hostile.

#2892 Postby **AdamFirst** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 8:38 am

The EURO also shows an EPAC storm...I thought the EPAC was closed for business this year :lol:

weatherwindow · #2893 Postby **weatherwindow** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 1:42 pm

12Z gfs bring 97L across Dominica and the Windwards on 9/24 as a badly sheared TC...right turn, with some strengthening and north to the USVI on 9/26 as a weak tropical storm....as for the western carib....spins up a la-la(384) TS on 10/3 between cape gracias a dios, nicaragua and jamaica......rich http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

weatherwindow · #2894 Postby **weatherwindow** » Sun Sep 18, 2011 11:19 am

9/18 06Z gfs brings 97L across Barbados and Dominica on 9/23 as a weak depression....97L misses the trough and moves west across the south-central caribbean thru the dutch antilles(aruba, bonaire, curacao)as a borderline TD/TS on 9/24, gfs then loses it off the coast of columbia...as far as the western caribbean...gfs presents a chaotic synoptic pattern over the western caribbean and from the remains of 97L, spins up a weak TS on 9/29, southeast of jamaica. moving nnw and north, the TS landfalls central cuba on 10/2 and moves slowly nne, brushing the upper keys/extreme sfla on 10/3.moving nne, the TS, strengthening slightlly, is absorbed by a large midlatitiude trough on 10/4...rich http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

cruiser65 · #2895 Postby **cruiser65** » Sun Sep 18, 2011 12:42 pm

Newbie here...and I'm having trouble locating the websites where you guys find the model runs that you post on the thread. Are they out there and available to anyone? I've dug around quite a bit but no luck...

I've always been a weather buff....thanks in advance.

rainstorm · #2896 Postby **rainstorm** » Sun Sep 18, 2011 6:29 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

this is about as bad as it gets. horrible conditions within the entire basin with that massive nw atl low.

rainstorm · #2897 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon Sep 19, 2011 6:28 pm

what is becoming a permanent east coast trough just wont go away

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

#2898 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Sep 19, 2011 6:41 pm

rainstorm wrote:what is becoming a permanent east coast trough just wont go away

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

Which has the potential to be bad news as we head into October. Climo suggests development transitions into the Western Caribbean and with a permanent east coast trough that you continue to bring up will be bad news for Florida potentially.

Rainband · #2899 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 19, 2011 8:31 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
rainstorm wrote:what is becoming a permanent east coast trough just wont go away

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

Which has the potential to be bad news as we head into October. Climo suggests development transitions into the Western Caribbean and with a permanent east coast trough that you continue to bring up will be bad news for Florida potentially.

wow west coast luck might be null and void :eek:

HurricaneFan · #2900 Postby **HurricaneFan** » Mon Sep 19, 2011 11:50 pm

So do the models still strengthen the wave leaving the African Coast now(pouch 30L) and recurves it quickly?
And do the models see any more Cape Verde storms after that?

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