WPAC: ROKE - Post-Tropical (18W)

[RobWESTPACWX]

Way off topic, yet something worth mentioning, southern Kyushu is getting the heavy rains, but also another volcano eruption there in the past 24hours, not the most wonderful day overall.


*****************************
Repeated eruptions from the Sakurajima volcano have produced large amounts
of ash draping the city center Sept. 15, the Kagoshima Local Meteorological
Agency said. Eruptions from the volcano overlooking the city of Kagoshima
began on Wednesday morning, dumping 217 grams of ash per square meter (7
ounces per 10 square feet), the third-highest level of ash to fall since
records began in 1994. Volcanic ash covered much of Kagoshima's Tenmmonkan
entertainment and business district on Thursday morning, visibly forming
clouds as cars drove through it and many pedestrians covering their faces
with towels or surgical masks to avoid breathing it in.

[Infdidoll]

In the last hour or so, seems to have gained a lot of convection on radar. It is CALM here, right now, compared to yesterday. Bet you everyone and their brother is cursing the weather people here, right now, thinking the worst is over.

[StormingB81]

In the last hour or so, seems to have gained a lot of convection on radar. It is CALM here, right now, compared to yesterday. Bet you everyone and their brother is cursing the weather people here, right now, thinking the worst is over.

this thing looks to be getting stronger bu the hour....I tell you what with a weak steering eviroment and this thing doing everything it wasnt forecasted to do..it could become a typhoon come west and be alot worst then everyone thought..I hope people have thier gaurds up until something happends whether it hits or turns away..

[RobWESTPACWX]

Latest Vis imagery

[RobWESTPACWX]

JMA also starting to pick up on the turn NE on the 21st as the trough starts to pick it up, yet they have a very wide cone of error on it.

[StormingB81]

Rob...starting to look very good right now..starting to make me think if we will have typhoon roke

[RobWESTPACWX]

It very much does look like it is going to strengthen more than a weak TS.

One good thing that may inhibit it though is the fact it is stationary, that will cause a lot of upwelling and hopefully got off its latent heat intake. "fingers crossed"

[StormingB81]

Also..there wasnt that much preperation here...I am afraid that if it comes closer here and it looks to be stronger..will have to hurry up and get to work to get stuff finished quickly

[RobWESTPACWX]

I still don't think there is any need to go to any higher TCCORS ( I don't think Kadena will see winds above 50kts sustained) Thats at this time.., we all know how this storm has been, as long as people took there own initiative and stocked up and took everything in from outside all should be good.

But is that what your saying, no one really has prepared at all?

[StormingB81]

Was at the storm yesterday and the line was to the back of the store! so thats the good part

[HurricaneBill]

Way off topic, yet something worth mentioning, southern Kyushu is getting the heavy rains, but also another volcano eruption there in the past 24hours, not the most wonderful day overall.


*****************************
Repeated eruptions from the Sakurajima volcano have produced large amounts
of ash draping the city center Sept. 15, the Kagoshima Local Meteorological
Agency said. Eruptions from the volcano overlooking the city of Kagoshima
began on Wednesday morning, dumping 217 grams of ash per square meter (7
ounces per 10 square feet), the third-highest level of ash to fall since
records began in 1994. Volcanic ash covered much of Kagoshima's Tenmmonkan
entertainment and business district on Thursday morning, visibly forming
clouds as cars drove through it and many pedestrians covering their faces
with towels or surgical masks to avoid breathing it in.

Sakurajima erupts practically everyday. It is one of Japan's most active and dangerous volcanoes.

[StormingB81]

JMA kept it AT 45 knots....i dont know IMO that is more then 45 knots!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Ha, interesting Bill, I knew there was one down in Kyushu that was like that, should have put two and two together, just caught my eye today because I get email notifications about the Volcanoes and this one was in a similar area as the TS.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[rdhdstpchld]

I'm convinced it's taken another track b/c I actually got all my stuff tied down on Wed...LOL. It's like the forcefield is back up in effect...youth sports was cancelled, but it sure is a beautiful day out there - we had one band come thru with some driving rain around 8:30am, but that's it. It's breezy now, but minimal clouds. is there a ridge that is pushing this back away from Okinawa and north? Can anyone post the wind pattern graphic? thanks -

[RobWESTPACWX]

Some very strong and severe rain bands starting to move on shore Shikoku now, JMA has put out a level 1 Tornado Threat on it.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Can anyone post the wind pattern graphic? thanks -

I think this is what your loooking for, not sure.

[RL3AO]

Starting to look like a 55 to 60kt TS.



Also has an elongated eyewall.

[euro6208]

TXPQ29 KNES 162121
TCSWNP

A. 18W (ROKE)

B. 16/2101Z

C. 25.2N

D. 129.7E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSRE

H. REMARKS...12-13 TENTHS BANDING ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF
3.5. MET IS 3.0. PT IS 3.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

16/1716Z 25.6N 129.5E AMSRE


...NEWHARD



CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 989.9mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.3 3.3

getting stronger by the hour




jtwc's forecast compared to other models...

[Typhoon Hunter]

JMA 5 day forecast looking ominous for Talas hit areas and is in line with latest ECMWF forecast too!

On a side note, Sakurajima is one of my favourite places in the world and hence I'm planning on heading back there to film. Hoping to catch Roke too if it passes nearby. Check out this shockwave and flying lava bomb I shot last time!

http://youtu.be/Gbrw2fWimeo