2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Nice weather next several days

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Ptarmigan
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Re: 2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Extreme Fire Danger!

#761 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Sep 14, 2011 7:08 pm

SaskatchewanScreamer wrote:
sequoyah101 wrote:Very hard to see how the 51-57 could be worse than this since back then there were some periodic rains weren't there? Now, we get almost no rain at all.

Not to be alarmist, but when does desertificaiton begin? If the root structures die where does replenishment come from?

Nothing can be done I know but this is frightening to watch huge oaks die, no moisture in the ground at all. When do wells begin to go dry. I have been watching water levels in monitor wells in SE Texas and they continue a multi year drop. Sure, levels go up and down with the seasons but the trend is down.

The really sickening part is that just three hours away there is plenty of moisture.



If you are referring to grasses (seeds are still lying on the soil)
http://www.agriculture.com/news/livestock/texas-pastures-may-take-two-years-to_3-ar19171

Native trees will be the same re from seeds (but it sure will take them a lot longer).

The plant life came back surprisingly fast after Mount St. Helen's eruption.


"Everything about this is historic and comparable to the Dust Bowl years," says Robert Dull, an assistant professor of geography and the environment at the University of Texas-Austin, referring to the severe drought and dust storms of the 1930s that forced mass migrations from Oklahoma and other states. "People made major life-changing decisions based on that event, just as they will with this."

Droughts and wildfires usually are phenomena that occur in faraway, rural corners of West Texas, Dull says. But last week, some of his students said their families had lost homes to the wildfires in nearby Bastrop, marking a disaster felt as much in urban centers as in rural areas.

"There's a psychological effect that will linger for years," he says.
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/drought/story/2011-09-12/texas-drought-Dust-Bowl-ranchers/50373618/1


In 2002 we went through a similar drought (but not hitting the temps you folks are)...I remember driving out to the farm and looking at its stunted *weed* crop and thinking we'd never recover (many dust devil dry years led up to it). Cattle and wildlife were starving here too (Eastern Canada's farmers sent donated hay out west to 600 lucky families who won the hay lottery). Most went to auction however (recovering from that will be the toughest for Tx ranchers). El Nino isn't good to us so I can't share your wishes for that (it brought us more or less 30 years of various degrees of drought (except for a couple of years where La Nina popped up) ending with our worst drought in well over a 100 years)...BUT I sure hope you get lots of rain some how.


If the drought lasted 30 years it will have a deep impact on Texas and on the economy, which is already in a sorry state. Droughts have been linked to epidemics and pandemics, like the Spanish Flu Pandemic in 1918.

Megadrought and Megadeath in 16th Century Mexico
http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/8/4/01 ... rticle.htm

The Indians in Mexico were decimated in the 16th century when Spain arrived. Most died from diseases from smallpox and a hemorrhagic fever known as cocoliztli. This great plague occurred during a massive drought in the 16th century. Some people think drought contributed to the Black Death pandemic.
http://books.google.com/books?id=NgF42W ... th&f=false


wxman57 wrote:And don't forget that many of the utility companies are having issues with their generation plants due to low water. Water is needed for cooling. Without water (soon), a number of generation units will need to be shut down. This isn't such a big issue if we have a mild winter, but it could mean many rolling blackouts across Texas next summer. That doesn't even consider the many units that will need to be shut down due to more strict EPA rules in 2012. ERCOT is going to be really pushed beyond its max next year if we don't get widespread heavy rain before then.

Glad I had that generator transfer switch installed next to my electric panel.

Oh, and as I type this, I see on TWC that it's flooding in the desert (Las Vegas).


That is not good. That could be a problem for the economy as well.
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#762 Postby sequoyah101 » Wed Sep 14, 2011 8:39 pm

SaskatchewanScreamer:

At least you had some rain. Here 45% of normal would be welcome. You will have of course noted that we have had almost no rain at all since October of last year. Tomball is one of the areas furthest behind on rain at over negative 30" out of the normal 45 to 48" per year. On top of this we were behind to start the period. :(
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Re: 2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Extreme Fire Danger!

#763 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Sep 14, 2011 8:56 pm

100f at both my house and IAH(official) with 102f at the weatherbug site nearest me. Winds have picked up this evening which is not good for the firefighters that are trying to keep the wildfires from blazing up again. Hopefully, according to the forecasts, this is our last 3 digit day which I will believe when I see it.
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Re:

#764 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Thu Sep 15, 2011 1:52 am

sequoyah101 wrote:SaskatchewanScreamer:

At least you had some rain. Here 45% of normal would be welcome. You will have of course noted that we have had almost no rain at all since October of last year. Tomball is one of the areas furthest behind on rain at over negative 30" out of the normal 45 to 48" per year. On top of this we were behind to start the period. :(


Yep I know Sequoyah101 :( ... I've been following this thread for a long time. I know how horrific yours is but we too lost a lot of forest to fire in the North in those years, as well as having crops, animals, trees and grasslands die in the South (and here those trees are very few and far between on the Southern plains of this province). We don't usually get the moisture for them to grow to any great extent unless they are in a pothole, ditch or by a dugout but they, in normal years, do very well near the rivers in our valleys. We've also had many towns burn to the ground. Here the moisture we normally get is a lot less then your norm so its hard to say what the comparison/differences would be (but I know your temps, & the duration sure make it a lot worse). Here we also have a much shorter summer (one chance to grow a crop) but when we are in drought we know we won't be facing the unending heat forever (weather from another direction :froze: is guaranteed here).

"For the entire province of Saskatchewan, total precipitation in a year amounts to an average 428 millimetres (17 inches). Province-wide, Saskatchewan averages 129 days annually when it rains or snows."
http://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Canada/Saskatchewan/precipitation-annual-average.php

so 1/2 of that would be 8 1/2 inches for an entire year. Moose Jaw averages 14 inches so 1/2 of that is 7 (and in drought we too are in a deficit with temps usually in the 90's and low 100's). But here, if it is the normal dry (ie not getting humidity from the GOM like we did, in spades, a couple of years ago) , at least our nights will be thankfully nice and cool (I really really REALLY HATE high temps with grossly high humidity..ie 120F :grr: :grr: :grr: ). For some that may mean rains a comin' but not for us.

Texas' current total is " just 7.33 inches of rain this year through August, the lowest amount in four decades, says state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon".

Welcome to Moose Jaw :ggreen: (in drought years :cry: ).

Changing our ways re agriculture though have made a huge difference except in the really bad years.

You folks however have a population that I can't begin to imagine...and a very :double: low supply of water. I really can't fathom what your government is thinking re allowing farmers to grow high water usage crops like rice, in extreme drought, when people could/are running out of drinking water (don't get political here).
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Re: 2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Extreme Fire Danger!

#765 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Sep 15, 2011 8:51 am

A glimmer of hope from Jeff?
Increasing rain chances and cooler temperatures!

Weak frontal boundary is drifting southward across Texas this morning with widespread moderate to at times heavy rainfall over western TX from near the Big Bend to Amarillo. Front is still north of SE TX, but drifting southward and should reach our northern counties in the next few hours and approach I-10 by early evening. Upper level ridge that has been parked over the region the last few days will be shifting southward today and this will not only help lower afternoon highs, but also allow a few showers/thunderstorms to develop with the front. High temperatures today will run 5-8 degrees cooler than yesterday, mainly a factor of increased cloud cover over any weak cold air advection.

Not expecting widespread rainfall today, just a few isolated to scattered showers mainly north of Hwy 105. 4km WRF shows most of the activity over our NE counties and then out west across the Rio Grande plains.

Front lifts back northward on Friday, but upper ridge does not build back into the region. Instead high pressure over the SE US will help induce a deep SE flow off the Gulf of Mexico pulling in more tropical like moisture. The result should be a few showers along the seabreeze front each afternoon, but for now will not go much higher than 20% since there is not a lot of tropical moisture out over the Gulf.

Early next week may feature better rain chances depending on your model of choice. The GFS brings a front into TX and stalls it north of our area along the I-20 corridor while the ECMWF drives a cold front deep into TX with widespread rains. Will take a blend of the two solutions and bring a front further south than the GFS but not as far south as the ECMWF. With increasing moisture over the region and the prospects for upstream thunderstorms to possibly send outflows our way, 30% should cover the area for now, but this could be raised in the next few days.

At least there is a chance for rain, now if it would actually rain that would be even better!

Fire Weather:
Moving in the right direction on this aspect as increasing RH and lowering winds should help not only with the ongoing fires, but also the threat of new starts. Winds will be variable and shifting around today near/behind the weak cool front. Afternoon RH should bottom out in the 30-40% range or 10-20% higher than yesterday. Ground fuels remain extremely dry and this continues to be the biggest drawback, so while fires may start their forward spread and growth may not be as great as in the past few days.

Conditions get even better over the weekend and early next week as RH increases more and better chances of rainfall appears over the region.

One concern will be lightening and the threat for lightening induced fires over the next few days, but this threat appears low to moderate at this time.
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#766 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Fri Sep 16, 2011 1:56 am

Our dream for many a year now yours Sequoyah (and much more likely to fall there then here...in reality, if we got that much almost at once this province, or Tyson's Alberta, would be Waterworld).
I've seen both Alberta and Saskatchewan look like Texas now (but we are prairie and your area is more tropical so the shock would be immense).
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-GMU2IBuno&feature=related[/youtube]

The rains will come again...it's a battle though to hang tough til they do.

My town had many a boarded business for so long after the 60's drought (it took almost 40 years to bounce back). The toll on the mind and soul is crushing if you let it be.

And sometimes it's best to follow the Gambler's advice (know when to fold em, know when to walk away, know when to run ...).
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Re: 2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Extreme Fire Danger!

#767 Postby jasons2k » Fri Sep 16, 2011 8:46 am

We just can't catch a break to save us. Yesterday all the precip was along and north/east of the front. I was hoping today would be the same (since front is now south of us), but Noooooooooooo!! No rain for you:

From HGX:

BEST INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE TODAY SHOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE 20% POPS WILL
BE CARRIED...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM COLLEGE STATION TO SUGAR LAND TO FREEPORT.
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#768 Postby southerngale » Fri Sep 16, 2011 12:05 pm

I was in Winnie last night and got a little bit of rain. I didn't even try to get out of it, but just enjoyed it. It was light and didn't make puddles, but a nice sight, and feel, nonetheless.

Latest Drought Monitor is _________. Just fill in the blank. I've already used every "unreal" type of word that is imaginable. I don't know what's left. It just keeps getting worse.

97% in the worst 2 categories and 88% in the worst. :eek:



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Re: 2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Extreme Fire Danger!

#769 Postby underthwx » Fri Sep 16, 2011 12:07 pm

Latest Drought Monitor is _________.evaporating... :(
SGale..I heard a winter weather prediction on my local news channel a couple of weeks ago..the Met stated that we can expect a dry Winter...is that true??..
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#770 Postby southerngale » Fri Sep 16, 2011 12:19 pm

I've heard the same thing, underthwx. We can only hope that they're wrong.
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#771 Postby jasons2k » Fri Sep 16, 2011 12:51 pm

Yes, La Nina is back. It'll be two winters in a row now. If you can imagine, next summer could be even worse. If the lakes don't get replenished this winter (and it's looking less likely) we could have some unprecedented water shortages and numerous other problems next summer. Power plants need water for cooling and ERCOT has already said many power plants are at risk of shutting down. That could translate to rolling blackouts too on top of the water shortages.

In other news, Texas' population continues to multiply.
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#772 Postby Houstonia » Fri Sep 16, 2011 1:24 pm

jasons wrote:Yes, La Nina is back. It'll be two winters in a row now. If you can imagine, next summer could be even worse. If the lakes don't get replenished this winter (and it's looking less likely) we could have some unprecedented water shortages and numerous other problems next summer. Power plants need water for cooling and ERCOT has already said many power plants are at risk of shutting down. That could translate to rolling blackouts too on top of the water shortages.

In other news, Texas' population continues to multiply.


Yeah... not quite sure I understand the population boom. Yes, the cost of living is lower, but so is the pay. Let's see.. without getting political about it, the facts are... there are more uninsured, more below poverty level, more teenage pregnancies... what else?

... and somehow people move here because... the weather is better?

I mean, _I_ am not leaving anytime soon. But on the other hand, Texas is all I have ever really known. I lived up north until I was 10, but that was like... 37 years ago!! :-)

Sorry... off-topic, weary, Friday afternoon rant. :-(

Can I blame my bad mood on the drought? :roll:
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Re: 2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Extreme Fire Danger!

#773 Postby jasons2k » Fri Sep 16, 2011 3:29 pm

Houstonia: Yes, we can't turn this into a political debate but hopefully I can add some insight.

It's jobs. Plain and simple. And no it's not 'minimum wage jobs' that the media now for some reason seems to be reporting. There are lots of high-paying professional jobs that have attracted transplants from out-of-state. There are a lot of technical, IT, Oil & Gas, and health care workers relocating to Texas for work. It's particularly true for the Houston, San Antonio, and Austin areas and to some extent DFW although it has waned in recent years. That's one big reason why cities like Houston and Austin and the DFW suburbs are known as cities of transplants.

Unfortunately, the RGV area is very poor and depressed, and it skews the numbers for the state as a whole when you look at rates of poverty, infant mortality, uninsured, etc. The business climate in Texas (comparitively) is very good and it's attracting a lot of companies and workers.
===============

As to the weather: lots of activity west of Hwy. 6 today. Almost nothing in Metro Houston and points north and east.
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Re: Re:

#774 Postby horselattitudesfarm » Fri Sep 16, 2011 3:29 pm

Houstonia wrote:
jasons wrote:Yes, La Nina is back. It'll be two winters in a row now. If you can imagine, next summer could be even worse. If the lakes don't get replenished this winter (and it's looking less likely) we could have some unprecedented water shortages and numerous other problems next summer. Power plants need water for cooling and ERCOT has already said many power plants are at risk of shutting down. That could translate to rolling blackouts too on top of the water shortages.

In other news, Texas' population continues to multiply.


Yeah... not quite sure I understand the population boom. Yes, the cost of living is lower, but so is the pay. Let's see.. without getting political about it, the facts are... there are more uninsured, more below poverty level, more teenage pregnancies... what else?

... and somehow people move here because... the weather is better?

I mean, _I_ am not leaving anytime soon. But on the other hand, Texas is all I have ever really known. I lived up north until I was 10, but that was like... 37 years ago!! :-)

Sorry... off-topic, weary, Friday afternoon rant. :-(

Can I blame my bad mood on the drought? :roll:

I can help a little bit on the population part. If this drought is still going next summer I will move my family to Colorado for the summer. That will be 5 less people
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Re: 2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Extreme Fire Danger!

#775 Postby Houstonia » Sat Sep 17, 2011 12:08 pm

What to my wondering eyes should appear? A small rain god, and 8 tiny raindrops!!

Actually, not so tiny, and not just eight! We actually had a tropical rain shower here in southwest Houston!! I had to go and take pictures. Awww... it looks like it's already over with...

Nonetheless, what an exciting 30 minutes THAT was!!! :lol:
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2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Extreme Fire Danger!

#776 Postby jasons2k » Sat Sep 17, 2011 2:21 pm

I can't believe it but it's raining!! Yeah!! Power is out though...but I'll take it. Chances look good for tomorrow too :-)
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Re: 2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Extreme Fire Danger!

#777 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Sep 17, 2011 2:32 pm

I was in the Katy area when it came through. For a while it was acting like it would just be a gust front, but it did rain for about 30 minutes. When we got home what did I find, but 0.53" of rain in the gauge. I now have an investigation underway to find out who put a hose into my rain gauge. :cheesy:
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Re: 2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Extreme Fire Danger!

#778 Postby Flyinman » Sat Sep 17, 2011 3:24 pm

Yeah I just thought I had a flock of vultures peeing on my head. I was very concerned as the wind started and then no rain. All in all it rained for almost 45 minutes. I could not believe it! Still having som light showers off and on and more looks to be building to the South an Soutwest.
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Re: 2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Extreme Fire Danger!

#779 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Sep 17, 2011 6:20 pm

Rain has been a rarity like gold and it was great to see it.
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#780 Postby Tireman4 » Sat Sep 17, 2011 6:29 pm

No rain for me in Humble. None. Nada. Zilch. Kaput. Maybe tonight. Lots of rain moving in from Porta's area...
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