Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

There is a new area to watch in the Atlantic.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
AND OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND AFRICA.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[underthwx]

It's active everywhre now Cycloneye....look at the huge batch of convection exiting the coastal plains of Texas into the Gulf...can this form???..off topic briefly...I am just curious...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-l.jpg

[cycloneye]

:darrow: It's active everywhre now Cycloneye....look at the huge batch of convection exiting the coastal plains of Texas into the Gulf...can this form???..off topic briefly...I am just curious...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-l.jpg

Only if it sits for the next few days in the GOM,it would have a chance.

[underthwx]

The wide satellite view of the Caribbean and Atlantic is active to say the least......the NHC has a full week ahead of them...IMO...

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1006 PM AST SAT SEP 17 2011

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THIS ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION LIES UNDER THE DIFFLUENT SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW.

THE LOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...TO BE
REPLACED BY A MID LEVEL HIGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY. THIS TRANSLATES TO INCREASED CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE TO INCREASE THE POP`S IN FEW ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE TO THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND
AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OCNL MVFR
AND IFR CONDS ARE PSBL DRG TSRA. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT TJSJ...TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ. MVFR PSBL AFT 18/16Z. LLVL WINDS
EAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. AREAS OF MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
19/04Z ESPCLY AFT 18/16Z IN WRN PR.

[underthwx]

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goe ... stfull.jpg




Full disk view...

[cycloneye]

View of area over islands and the suspisious area in the Central Atlantic.



Saved image.

[underthwx]

NHC 8PM Discussion:


THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER HONDURAS AND THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
13N87W TO 19N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
FROM 10N65W TO 18N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E
OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 56W-63W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 75W-84W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO DRIFT W OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 17 2011

PRZ001-004-180400-
PUERTO RICO

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM   PTCLDY    79  72  78 SW3       29.96F
PONCE          CLEAR     73  72  94 NE6       29.95
AGUADILLA      CLEAR     73  70  88 E6        29.98S
CEIBA          PTCLDY    79  75  89 CALM      29.96F
$$



[underthwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1006 PM AST SAT SEP 17 2011

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THIS ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION LIES UNDER THE DIFFLUENT SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW.

THE LOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...TO BE
REPLACED BY A MID LEVEL HIGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY. THIS TRANSLATES TO INCREASED CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE TO INCREASE THE POP`S IN FEW ZONES.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1200 AM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

PRZ001-004-180500-
PUERTO RICO

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM   PTCLDY    79  70  73 CALM      29.96S
AGUADILLA      CLEAR     73  70  88 E6        29.97F
CEIBA          CLEAR     75  73  94 CALM      29.96S
$$

PRZ006-007-180500-
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
CHARLOTTE AMA  PTCLDY    79  75  89 NE7       29.95
CHRISTIANSTED  PTCLDY    77  75  94 N6        29.96
$$



[underthwx]

The Caribbean continues on Satellite to display abundant moisture,,,the ULL appears to be almost due North of Puerto Rico...the Western Caribbean also has a area of cloudiness persisting...will be an area to watch during the day tomorrow....and 97L to the East joined by a new low earlier this evening..both of which have low to medium chances of development....please refer to the National Hurricane Center website for full details of these two systems and all tropical weather across the Atlantic...Caribbean..and the Gulf of Mexico.....

Caribbean Rainbow Still Image
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg

[cycloneye]

If the upper troughs were not around,there would be a parade of Tropical Cyclones around the basin. Let's see if the troughness pattern and the inestability rises to then allow some tropical developments to occur. But if this pattern continues,I would not be surprised if 2011 doesn't reach the greek names.

[cycloneye]

We have new invest 98L in the Central Atlantic. Here are the first model tracks that point towards the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND AFRICA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT INTERACTS WITH
A LARGER DISTURBANCE TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
435 AM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AS A TUTT LOW DOMINATES THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME. THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TUTT LOW SPINNING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
MONDAY. FOR TODAY...EXPECT FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AS
WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO AVAILABLE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SURGE OF MOISTURE REACHING THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT...WITH PWAT FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 2.0
INCHES BY MID WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE REMNANTS OF THE
TUTT LOW...TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...REVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
MORE FREQUENT THAN NORMAL MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
COULD AGAIN CONTAIN STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED INDUCED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...
INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 76 / 50 40 50 40
STT 87 77 87 78 / 70 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
UNLIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD for Caribbean Basin:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH THE FIRST AREA SITTING OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN W OF
79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 22N
BETWEEN 79W-86W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS JUST E OF THE YUCATAN
INTO NRN HONDURAS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN ITS
VICINITY. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER NRN
COLOMBIA AND E OF COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA TO NRN COLOMBIA. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS DOMINATING THE ERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER ERN
PUERTO RICO. DRY AIR IS BEING WRAPPED AROUND THE WRN SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW KEEPING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF
HAITI. CLUSTERS HAVE ALSO POPPED UP OVER NRN VENEZUELA AND OVER
THE NRN WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NRN VENEZUELA NEAR 12N66W. MOST OF THE
REMAINING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW IS N AND E OF THE ISLANDS. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. MOISTURE IN THE ERN
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WWD WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN.

[cycloneye]

Found another web cam from St Barts. Will be added with the many other ones that are on the first post of thread.

http://www.earthcam.com/frenchwestindies/stbarts/

[underthwx]

Image of Caribbean,,,note the Western Caribbean...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg