WPAC: ROKE - Post-Tropical (18W)

#221 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 7:40 pm

Also I know everyone is worried about Okinawa, but the Kanto plain could see some weather from this as well, good news is that the models are starting to pull to the west, maybe a little less of an influence from the trough to the North, hopefully that is the case becuase the storm would weaken over the mountains before moving to far north. (specifically the Fukushima region)

euro6208 · #222 Postby **euro6208** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 7:43 pm

i bet since the last recon year in 1987, we probrably lost near 6,000 ACE that should have been added in the database! but jtwc and jma are always lagging behind the true intensity...

#223 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 7:44 pm

One more thing, I got a lot of my mind right now, is that Shikoku has been getting hit very hard by rains, Talas devastated the area and hopefully we do not see a repeat.

Below is the TRMM Flood Model, noting those areas in red.

#224 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 7:52 pm

Up to 60 Knots per JMA

#225 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 7:52 pm

ALso JMA starting Hourly updates

euro6208 · #226 Postby **euro6208** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 8:08 pm

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 964.0mb/ 82.2kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 3.0

#227 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 8:20 pm

This is great,

#228 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 8:21 pm

But Rob..lol has it followed the track once yet? It has been all over

#229 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 8:26 pm

StormingB81 wrote:But Rob..lol has it followed the track once yet? It has been all over

O ya, I am confident it will start to go north, but at this point I wouldn't be totally surprised if it does another loop out there.

#230 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 8:47 pm

Starting to move north now..now what else will it do...soem models bring it towards Okinawa now...I will be mad if I have to go to work on a Sunday...lol

#231 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 9:20 pm

TCCOR 4 Declared in Okinawa...lol!

#232 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 9:24 pm

And people are questioning them on why so soon to change in when JMA bring it close to Oki..wow! I wonder what they will think when they see them getting questioned

euro6208 · #233 Postby **euro6208** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 9:43 pm

my team, kentucky wildcats lost in football. let's hope roke and sonca will cheer me up...sigh

#234 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 9:49 pm

euro6208 wrote::cry: my team, kentucky wildcats lost in football. let's hope roke and sonca will cheer me up...sigh

you should see these refs trying to rig the OU game to let the OU guys win

dexterlabio · #235 Postby **dexterlabio** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 11:13 pm

If Roke continues to be lifted to the NE then Okinawa will not witness the worst from this storm. Not surprising though, the trough might have already influenced Roke's movement and this storm rounding the western part of the ridge. Well considering that the center of this storm is near Okinawa, it will be wise to remain vigilant, at least a level 2 storm warning shall still be raised.

Whatever the outcome will be in the next 24 hours, it is almost certain that the same areas affected by Talas will be affected again by Roke.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamir.html

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#236 Postby **StormingB81** » Sat Sep 17, 2011 11:31 pm

If this moves west now and we go back to tccor 3 I will laugh

dexterlabio · #237 Postby **dexterlabio** » Sun Sep 18, 2011 12:30 am

HURAKAN wrote:

JTWC makes me laugh!! 60 knots!!

I didn't notice this posted here earlier. So, when did JTWC and JMA start committing such things?

Sonca and Roke must be depressed right now.

#238 Postby **StormingB81** » Sun Sep 18, 2011 1:03 am

We went to TCCOR 4 but the storm looks like it didnt done playing yet...be funny if we go back to 3 today...lol

#239 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Sun Sep 18, 2011 2:02 am

Some of my thoughts for today, not only Roke but also the damaging floods that have been hitting Thailand.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eeIqdfdSBrs&feature=youtube_gdata[/youtube]

#240 Postby **StormingB81** » Sun Sep 18, 2011 2:53 am

And now the storm has done a complete circle!

Lets do one more circle just because....Or lets come close enough to put us back in a TCCOR again that would be interesting..I would jus twanna see the peoples post after what they put when TCCOR 4 was declared

WPAC: ROKE - Post-Tropical (18W)

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