ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2011, DB, O, 2011091806, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992011
AL, 99, 2011091706, , BEST, 0, 163N, 386W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011091712, , BEST, 0, 168N, 402W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011091718, , BEST, 0, 170N, 413W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011091800, , BEST, 0, 172N, 423W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011091806, , BEST, 0, 173N, 433W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
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invest_al992011.invest
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2011, DB, O, 2011091806, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992011
AL, 99, 2011091706, , BEST, 0, 163N, 386W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011091712, , BEST, 0, 168N, 402W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011091718, , BEST, 0, 170N, 413W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011091800, , BEST, 0, 172N, 423W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011091806, , BEST, 0, 173N, 433W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
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- AJC3
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This is the small low at the north end of the speed surge line that is "connected" to 98L. Speed surges are simply areas of enhanced easterly winds in the deep tropics, and are usually denoted by a convergent band of clouds/showers along it's leading edge.
Back about 15 years ago, I started affectionately calling these speed surge lines in the deep tropics "tow-ropes" because of their appearance - they are often connected to well-organized tropical waves, where the lead system appears to be towing the trailing one.
Back about 15 years ago, I started affectionately calling these speed surge lines in the deep tropics "tow-ropes" because of their appearance - they are often connected to well-organized tropical waves, where the lead system appears to be towing the trailing one.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Thank you Tony for that explanation about this complex situation between systems.
Here is the 8 AM TWO:
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Here is the 8 AM TWO:
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Here are the early model tracks:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots
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- Extratropical94
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12Z Tropical Models - not even worth mentioning:
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 181220
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1220 UTC SUN SEP 18 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992011) 20110918 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110918 1200 110919 0000 110919 1200 110920 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 43.9W 17.8N 46.1W 18.2N 48.2W 18.5N 50.5W
BAMD 17.3N 43.9W 17.3N 44.1W 17.2N 44.6W 17.3N 45.5W
BAMM 17.3N 43.9W 17.5N 45.0W 17.5N 46.3W 17.5N 47.9W
LBAR 17.3N 43.9W 17.5N 44.6W 18.0N 45.6W 18.7N 46.7W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 23KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 23KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110920 1200 110921 1200 110922 1200 110923 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.9N 53.3W 20.2N 58.9W 21.7N 64.9W 23.8N 70.6W
BAMD 17.5N 46.7W 18.2N 49.7W 18.4N 53.4W 18.4N 57.9W
BAMM 17.7N 49.8W 18.2N 54.0W 18.6N 59.1W 19.1N 64.5W
LBAR 20.0N 48.1W 22.8N 51.4W 25.2N 54.4W 26.7N 56.8W
SHIP 24KTS 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS
DSHP 24KTS 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 43.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 17.2N LONM12 = 42.3W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 16.8N LONM24 = 40.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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- Daniel
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
i see one person say this not thing to watch my question why nhc calling it invest 99 i bet their see something with this area to call invest to run models
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.
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- HurricaneMaster_PR
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Convection has flared up tonight to the north of the swirl
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html
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- Hylian Auree
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- cycloneye
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Re:
O Town wrote:[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/705/97l2.gif/]http://img705.imageshack.us/img705/828/97l2.gif/url]
That was for now dead 97L.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Hasta la vista!
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invest_DEACTIVATE_al992011.ren
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- Hylian Auree
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- tobol.7uno
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Does not look like they want this to be a storm.
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- tobol.7uno
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Also no idea where it is going!
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My Tropical Weather Website: http://tropwx.com/
I do link exchange, so if you have a website we can share each others links.
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I'm supprised this hasn't even got a 0% from the NHC, It looks to have a partialy exposed surface circulation with a reasonable amount of convection. We have allready had similer looking highly sheared systems get named this year like Jose and I wouldn't be supprised if it happened again with ex99L.
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- Hylian Auree
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Wait, why isn't this getting any attention? The circulation looks very defined, and even though it's sheared it is definitely tropical. Not even a mention in the TWO? ._.
Last edited by Hylian Auree on Tue Sep 20, 2011 6:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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