Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1016 AM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-191030-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
616 AM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN LOCATED OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING...BRIEF
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING
ARE EXPECTED IN MANY LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT ITS PROXIMITY TO THE LOCAL AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND LOCAL
EFFECTS...WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER REPORTS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING OR OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[underthwx]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC037-053-089-103-181845-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0142.110918T1443Z-110918T1845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1043 AM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CEIBA
NAGUABO
FAJARDO
LUQUILLO

* UNTIL 245 PM AST

* AT 1037 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
PUERTO RICO MOVING GENERALLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED BY RADAR AND
ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHARP RISES HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED AT THE FAJARDO RIVER AND THIS ADDITIONAL RIVER WILL
LIKELY CAUSE THE RIVER TO GO OUT OVER ITS BANKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1836 6552 1836 6562 1835 6562 1835 6556
1833 6562 1832 6560 1826 6563 1825 6557
1821 6560 1823 6563 1819 6564 1818 6576
1822 6583 1827 6583 1830 6576 1837 6577
1839 6575 1837 6566 1840 6558

$$

[underthwx]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC037-053-089-103-181845-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0142.110918T1443Z-110918T1845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1043 AM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CEIBA
NAGUABO
FAJARDO
LUQUILLO

* UNTIL 245 PM AST

* AT 1037 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
PUERTO RICO MOVING GENERALLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED BY RADAR AND
ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHARP RISES HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED AT THE FAJARDO RIVER AND THIS ADDITIONAL RIVER WILL
LIKELY CAUSE THE RIVER TO GO OUT OVER ITS BANKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1836 6552 1836 6562 1835 6562 1835 6556
1833 6562 1832 6560 1826 6563 1825 6557
1821 6560 1823 6563 1819 6564 1818 6576
1822 6583 1827 6583 1830 6576 1837 6577
1839 6575 1837 6566 1840 6558

$$

[Gustywind]

Loop of the tropical activity east of the Lesser Antilles...

[cycloneye]

Gusty,your favorite image.

[underthwx]

Very busy morning in the tropics......

[underthwx]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1011 AM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

AMZ710-712-715-722-725-732-735-PRZ001>010-012-013-VIZ001-002-
182015-
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
1011 AM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

.NOW...

AT 10:06 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS MOVING
GENERALLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL LATER THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVITY PROPAGATING
GENERALLY TOWARD THE AGUADILLA AREA BY 2 PM. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

[Gustywind]

Gusty,your favorite image.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

you're right no memory suffering Superman . Not better than a visible but always an image to show what the weather like

[underthwx]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181419 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1019 AM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

.UPDATE...THINGS PRETTY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON
12Z RAOB AND RECENT RADAR ANIMATION WITH TSTMS ALREADY OVR
NORTHEASTERN PR AND THE ADJACENT ATLC AND CARIB WATERS. POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGH TODAY DUE TO
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS/LOW WBZ HEIGHTS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 12
KNOTS WITH THE ENTIRE NCOAST AND ST.THOMAS/ST. JOHN THE MOST
FAVORED AREAS FOR SEEING CONVECTION.


&&

.AVIATION...TSRA LIKELY AT NORTH COAST PR...NRN USVI AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH RISK OF DAILY CONVECTION WITH
WRN AND NW PR THE MOST FAVORED AREAS.

[underthwx]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181419 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1019 AM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

.UPDATE...THINGS PRETTY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON
12Z RAOB AND RECENT RADAR ANIMATION WITH TSTMS ALREADY OVR
NORTHEASTERN PR AND THE ADJACENT ATLC AND CARIB WATERS. POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGH TODAY DUE TO
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS/LOW WBZ HEIGHTS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 12
KNOTS WITH THE ENTIRE NCOAST AND ST.THOMAS/ST. JOHN THE MOST
FAVORED AREAS FOR SEEING CONVECTION.


&&

.AVIATION...TSRA LIKELY AT NORTH COAST PR...NRN USVI AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH RISK OF DAILY CONVECTION WITH
WRN AND NW PR THE MOST FAVORED AREAS.

[msbee]

We just received heavy thunderstorm here

[Gustywind]

We just received heavy thunderstorm here

Hi Barbara , be aware safe and dry!

[Gustywind]

Given the latest TWO, we have now 3 suspicious areas to monitor . Let's wait and see what could happen with these 3 features.

[underthwx]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC037-053-089-103-181845-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0142.110918T1443Z-110918T1845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1043 AM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CEIBA
NAGUABO
FAJARDO
LUQUILLO

* UNTIL 245 PM AST

* AT 1037 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
PUERTO RICO MOVING GENERALLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED BY RADAR AND
ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHARP RISES HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED AT THE FAJARDO RIVER AND THIS ADDITIONAL RIVER WILL
LIKELY CAUSE THE RIVER TO GO OUT OVER ITS BANKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1836 6552 1836 6562 1835 6562 1835 6556
1833 6562 1832 6560 1826 6563 1825 6557
1821 6560 1823 6563 1819 6564 1818 6576
1822 6583 1827 6583 1830 6576 1837 6577
1839 6575 1837 6566 1840 6558

$$

ROSA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009

[cycloneye]

Given the latest TWO, we have now 3 suspicious areas to monitor . Let's wait and see what could happen with these 3 features.

Yes, let's watch these systems as we still are in hurricane season,by the way today is the Anniversary of Hugo here.

[Gustywind]

Given the latest TWO, we have now 3 suspicious areas to monitor . Let's wait and see what could happen with these 3 features.

Yes, let's watch these systems as we still are in hurricane season,by the way today is the Anniversary of Hugo here.

You're right Luis, we should not let our guard down as we're in the peak! Hugo ... a monster cane, thoughts for all the Caribbean islanders especially those in PR who have endured the assaults of this montruous feature

[underthwx]

Watches, Warnings & Advisories


Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

Flash Flood Warning
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1139 AM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

PRC037-053-089-103-181845-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.W.0142.000000T0000Z-110918T1845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CEIBA PR-NAGUABO PR-FAJARDO PR-LUQUILLO PR-
1139 AM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM AST FOR
LUQUILLO...FAJARDO...NAGUABO AND CEIBA MUNICIPALITIES...

AT 1115 AM AST...USGS SENSORS INDICATED THE FAJARDO RIVER AT PARAISO
AT 9.73 FEET AND STILL RISING AND FLOOD STAGE IS 10 FEET. AT 9.0
FEET...THE RIVER FLOODS HIGHWAY PR-53 AT THE INTERSECTION WITH
HIGHWAY PR-3. ALTHOUGH RAINS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE LAST
HOUR...RADAR INDICATED ANOTHER CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE FAJARDO AREA SO ADDITIONAL
RISES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FAJARDO RIVER.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

[Jimsot]

Any ideas when that low by PR that keeps spinning up storms is going to move away? We are saturated here on Anguilla. Looking nasty again off to the southeast.

[cycloneye]

Any ideas when that low by PR that keeps spinning up storms is going to move away? We are saturated here on Anguilla. Looking nasty again off to the southeast.

First,welcome to the Caribbean thread. To answer your question,I can say that the NWS forecasts it to slowly move NE and weaken from Monday. Yes,we dont need more rain in this area as is very saturated with all the events that have occured this year.

[underthwx]

US Severe Weather Alerts OR National Alerts Map
Hurricane Season

Add this to:

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Check local weather:

Tropical Update National Forecast

Submit Your Video
New Atlantic depression could be upcoming
Dr. Rick Knabb, Hurricane Expert, The Weather Channel
Sep 18, 2011 12:06 pm ET
Tropics Watch: Daily Map Analysis
- Broad low over the central tropical Atlantic could lead to a depression within the next few days, with potential to affect the eastern Caribbean late this coming week
- Other weaker systems over central and eastern Atlantic have lesser development potential and are little threat to land
- Another new tropical wave expected to emerge from west Africa by Tuesday, and could eventually lead to a depression sometime in the next week
- Western Pacific Tropical Storm Roke forecast to move near the coast of Japan Monday-Wednesday, while Typhoon Sonca will turn away from Japan in next day or two
ATLANTIC BASIN
* Central tropical Atlantic low
- Barely moving, and producing widespread but somewhat disorganized shower activity about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles
- Some models forecast a depression to form within the next couple to few days
- Will start moving more quickly westward in a couple of days, and could reach the Windward and Leeward Islands late this coming week
* Central Atlantic surface trough
- North of the central Atlantic broad low, associated with the same tropical wave from Africa
- No closed circulation apparent, but some persistent thunderstorms
- Models do not forecast development, likely due to vertical wind shear, as it moves westward
- Unlikely to significantly affect the Leeward Islands
* East Atlantic broad low
- South of the Cape Verde Islands with disorganized shower activity
- Models do not forecast development
* Next east Atlantic tropical wave
- Another tropical wave is still over west Africa but is expected to emerge over the far east Atlantic on Monday or Tuesday. Some models indicate it could eventually lead to a depression this coming week, although it appears it would turn north over the east Atlantic rather than heading westward