Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Jimsot]

Any ideas when that low by PR that keeps spinning up storms is going to move away? We are saturated here on Anguilla. Looking nasty again off to the southeast.

First,welcome to the Caribbean thread. To answer your question,I can say that the NWS forecasts it to slowly move NE and weaken from Monday. Yes,we dont need more rain in this area as is very saturated with all the events that have occured this year.

I read your posts all the time. I guess we should be happy that the cisterns are OVERFLOWING and I have actually opened the storm overflow for the roof. Usually only need to do that in a tropical cyclone. When the ground is saturated like this water begins to seep into our utility room thru the door as the water pools, but thats nothing unusual for the tropics! I am keen on watching invest 98L as we have a date with a flight out of ST Martin next Sunday. Talk about timing. Stay dry.

[underthwx]

[cycloneye]

Any ideas when that low by PR that keeps spinning up storms is going to move away? We are saturated here on Anguilla. Looking nasty again off to the southeast.

First,welcome to the Caribbean thread. To answer your question,I can say that the NWS forecasts it to slowly move NE and weaken from Monday. Yes,we dont need more rain in this area as is very saturated with all the events that have occured this year.

I read your posts all the time. I guess we should be happy that the cisterns are OVERFLOWING and I have actually opened the storm overflow for the roof. Usually only need to do that in a tropical cyclone. When the ground is saturated like this water begins to seep into our utility room thru the door as the water pools, but thats nothing unusual for the tropics! I am keen on watching invest 98L as we have a date with a flight out of ST Martin next Sunday. Talk about timing. Stay dry.

Agree with that. Yes,the timing for your flight may coincide with a visit from 98L in any form,so during the week,check the latest in this thread as all the Tropical Weather Outlooks and more will be posted.

[underthwx]

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[Printable]
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181739
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1200
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[underthwx]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PRC011-083-097-099-131-181815-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SV.W.0016.110918T1743Z-110918T1815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
143 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ANASCO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
LAS MARIAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MAYAGUEZ MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MOCA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN SEBASTIAN MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 215 PM AST

* AT 134 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED OVER LAS MARIAS MUNICIPALITY...OR 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ANASCO...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL ANASCO MUNICIPALITY AT 200 PM AST
RURAL MAYAGUEZ MUNICIPALITY AT 200 PM AST

LAT...LON 1825 6714 1833 6709 1830 6700 1821 6704
TIME...MOT...LOC 1742Z 124DEG 5KT 1826 6706

$$

ROSA

[underthwx]

Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
129 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

PRC005-071-081-083-099-131-182130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0456.110918T1729Z-110918T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LARES PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-AGUADILLA PR-
ISABELA PR-
129 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LARES...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS...AGUADILLA AND
ISABELA

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 128 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO MOVING SLOWLY THE
WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6697 1838 6695 1839 6692 1837 6691
1834 6683 1823 6682 1819 6684 1817 6683
1821 6697 1820 6702 1826 6708 1827 6704
1830 6704 1831 6709 1848 6718 1853 6708

$$

[underthwx]

The NHC has eliminated one of the Tropical Waves as of 2pm..there remains the 2 Invest's............I have posted the 2pm NHC outlook....awaiting the discussion update...

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD Caribbean discussion.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE VALUES ARE NOTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY W OF 80W. WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ROAM THIS AREA...STRONGER ACTIVITY FOCUSES OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR EASTERN HONDURAS...
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND COLOMBIA UP TO 100 NM
OFFSHORE W OF 75W. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY S OF 12N W OF 75W IS
ALSO ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE FAR SW
BASIN EXTENDING ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH
THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER PUERTO RICO. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN ITS SURROUNDINGS...THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AFFECTING THE FAR NE
CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 68W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WWD WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

[underthwx]

Severe Weather Statement
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
206 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

PRC011-083-097-099-131-181816-
/O.EXP.TJSJ.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-110918T1815Z/
ANASCO PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
206 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MAYAGUEZ...LAS MARIAS...SAN
SEBASTIAN...MOCA AND ANASCO MUNICIPALITIES WILL EXPIRE AT 215 PM
AST...


LAT...LON 1825 6714 1833 6709 1830 6700 1821 6704
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 124DEG 5KT 1828 6709

[underthwx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
129 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

PRC005-071-081-083-099-131-182130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0456.110918T1729Z-110918T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LARES PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-AGUADILLA PR-
ISABELA PR-
129 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LARES...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS...AGUADILLA AND
ISABELA

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 128 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO MOVING SLOWLY THE
WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6697 1838 6695 1839 6692 1837 6691
1834 6683 1823 6682 1819 6684 1817 6683
1821 6697 1820 6702 1826 6708 1827 6704
1830 6704 1831 6709 1848 6718 1853 6708

$$

ROSA

[underthwx]

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goe ... latest.jpg


GOES Medium Range Image...

[underthwx]

98L Latest Models SFWMD:

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_98.gif

[underthwx]

99L Latest Models SFWMD:


https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_99.gif

[underthwx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

PRC023-067-097-181915-
HORMIGUEROS PR-CABO ROJO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
235 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MAYAGUEZ AND HORMIGUEROS.

AT 225 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM ALONG
THE HORMIGUEROS AND MAYAGUEZ COUNTY LINE NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL TO THE SIZE OF MARBLES...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

$$

[underthwx]

QPF 6HR. Precip. Forecast:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/internatio ... pf/f12.gif

[cycloneye]

RWRPR
PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
200 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

PRZ001-004-181900-
PUERTO RICO

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM MOSUNNY 75 73 94 E13G21 29.92F
AGUADILLA TSTM 72 70 94 E14G32 29.96S
CEIBA CLOUDY 79 75 89 N6 29.94F

[underthwx]

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

AMZ710-712-742-181907-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.MA.W.0126.000000T0000Z-110918T2000Z/
257 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

...SPECIAL MARINE WARNING CANCELLED...

THE AFFECTED AREAS WERE...
COASTAL WATERS OFF OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED.

LAT...LON 1891 6779 1914 6747 1885 6718 1852 6708
1840 6716 1835 6727
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 141DEG 11KT 1872 6738

$$

[underthwx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

PRC005-071-081-083-099-131-182130-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FA.Y.0456.000000T0000Z-110918T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LARES PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-AGUADILLA PR-
ISABELA PR-
301 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM AST FOR THE
FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LARES...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS...AGUADILLA AND
ISABELA

WHILE HEAVY RAIN HAS DISSIPATED...RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO POSE FLOODING PROBLEMS OF
URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6697 1838 6695 1839 6692 1837 6691
1834 6683 1823 6682 1819 6684 1817 6683
1821 6697 1820 6702 1826 6708 1827 6704
1830 6704 1831 6709 1848 6718 1853 6708

$$

ROSA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

[underthwx]

CA62 TJSJ 181854
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED AS A TUTT
DOMINATES THE LOCAL WEATHER. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE TUTT THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS SEEMS TO HAVE LOST ITS ROTATION AND IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A
TROUGH...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. AS A RESULT...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO MONDAY.
FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...DUE
TO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL
HEATING.


&&

.AVIATION...TSRA LIKELY AT WESTERN PR...USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS
TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST OVR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH RISK OF DAILY CONVECTION
WITH WRN AND NW PR THE MOST FAVORED AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 89 / 40 50 50 50
STT 77 87 78 87 / 50 50 50 50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

64/25

[underthwx]

CA62 TJSJ 181854
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED AS A TUTT
DOMINATES THE LOCAL WEATHER. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE TUTT THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS SEEMS TO HAVE LOST ITS ROTATION AND IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A
TROUGH...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. AS A RESULT...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO MONDAY.
FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...DUE
TO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL
HEATING.


&&

.AVIATION...TSRA LIKELY AT WESTERN PR...USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS
TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST OVR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH RISK OF DAILY CONVECTION
WITH WRN AND NW PR THE MOST FAVORED AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 89 / 40 50 50 50
STT 77 87 78 87 / 50 50 50 50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

64/25