Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

98L Models
http://tropics.hamweather.com/images/tr ... models.jpg

I dont like those tracks at all.

Me too Luis especially with a possible... TS status

[underthwx]

How soon before San Juan NWS updates forecast discussion....???

[cycloneye]

How soon before San Juan NWS updates forecast discussion....???

Between 10-11 PM EDT.

[Gustywind]

How soon before San Juan NWS updates forecast discussion....???

Between 10-11 PM EDT.

With this huge job from our friend underthw... you can have sometimes a little breath Cycloneye .

[underthwx]

TROPICAL ATLANTIC WIDE VIEW(RAINBOW IMAGERY)


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-l.jpg

[underthwx]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/i ... ensity.gif



98L Models intensity forecast...

[underthwx]

Sun Sep 18 22:04:16 EDT 2011
WHXX01 KWBC 190005

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0005 UTC MON SEP 19 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992011) 20110919 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110919 0000 110919 1200 110920 0000 110920 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 45.9W 17.3N 48.0W 17.5N 50.1W 17.9N 52.8W
BAMD 16.9N 45.9W 16.4N 46.6W 16.3N 47.6W 16.2N 49.0W
BAMM 16.9N 45.9W 16.7N 47.2W 16.7N 48.8W 16.7N 50.7W
LBAR 16.9N 45.9W 16.9N 47.0W 17.2N 48.3W 17.8N 49.9W
SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 24KTS 24KTS
DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 24KTS 24KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110921 0000 110922 0000 110923 0000 110924 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.6N 55.4W 19.8N 61.5W 21.4N 67.8W 23.7N 73.0W
BAMD 16.2N 50.7W 16.2N 54.8W 15.8N 59.6W 15.3N 64.0W
BAMM 17.0N 52.8W 17.3N 57.6W 17.6N 63.1W 18.0N 68.5W
LBAR 18.6N 51.6W 20.4N 55.8W 22.1N 60.5W 23.9N 64.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS 32KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.9N LONCUR = 45.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 17.3N LONM12 = 43.9W DIRM12 = 256DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 17.2N LONM24 = 42.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


WHXX01 KWBC 190003

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0003 UTC MON SEP 19 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110919 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110919 0000 110919 1200 110920 0000 110920 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.9N 37.1W 12.5N 38.5W 12.9N 40.2W 13.0N 42.6W
BAMD 11.9N 37.1W 12.3N 38.2W 12.8N 39.4W 13.2N 41.0W
BAMM 11.9N 37.1W 12.2N 38.3W 12.3N 39.5W 12.3N 41.3W
LBAR 11.9N 37.1W 12.3N 38.3W 13.3N 40.0W 14.5N 41.9W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110921 0000 110922 0000 110923 0000 110924 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 45.3W 13.2N 52.1W 12.6N 59.5W 12.0N 66.6W
BAMD 13.7N 42.8W 14.6N 47.0W 15.5N 51.2W 16.7N 55.0W
BAMM 12.3N 43.2W 12.2N 48.0W 12.4N 53.3W 13.4N 57.9W
LBAR 15.8N 44.1W 18.7N 48.8W 21.7N 52.8W 24.2N 55.2W
SHIP 47KTS 50KTS 54KTS 56KTS
DSHP 47KTS 50KTS 54KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.9N LONCUR = 37.1W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 35.7W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 35.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

WHXX01 KWBC 181819

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1819 UTC SUN SEP 18 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110918 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110918 1800 110919 0600 110919 1800 110920 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 35.8W 12.0N 36.9W 12.8N 38.4W 13.5N 40.4W
BAMD 11.3N 35.8W 11.8N 36.7W 12.4N 37.7W 13.0N 39.2W
BAMM 11.3N 35.8W 11.9N 36.9W 12.5N 38.0W 13.1N 39.5W
LBAR 11.3N 35.8W 11.9N 36.6W 13.0N 38.2W 14.3N 40.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110920 1800 110921 1800 110922 1800 110923 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 43.1W 15.8N 49.6W 17.1N 57.1W 18.2N 64.6W
BAMD 13.7N 40.9W 15.3N 44.9W 16.5N 48.7W 17.4N 51.8W
BAMM 13.8N 41.5W 15.0N 46.1W 16.0N 51.2W 17.0N 56.3W
LBAR 16.1N 42.3W 19.8N 46.5W 23.6N 48.8W 26.0N 49.3W
SHIP 38KTS 35KTS 29KTS 27KTS
DSHP 38KTS 35KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 35.8W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 35.2W DIRM12 = 342DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 35.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

WHXX01 KWBC 181813

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1813 UTC SUN SEP 18 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992011) 20110918 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110918 1800 110919 0600 110919 1800 110920 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 45.0W 17.2N 47.2W 17.6N 49.3W 17.8N 51.8W
BAMD 16.9N 45.0W 16.6N 45.5W 16.5N 46.3W 16.5N 47.5W
BAMM 16.9N 45.0W 16.8N 46.2W 16.7N 47.7W 16.8N 49.4W
LBAR 16.9N 45.0W 16.7N 46.1W 16.9N 47.3W 17.6N 48.9W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110920 1800 110921 1800 110922 1800 110923 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 54.5W 19.8N 60.3W 21.4N 66.4W 23.7N 71.9W
BAMD 16.7N 48.9W 17.0N 52.5W 17.0N 57.0W 17.0N 61.6W
BAMM 17.0N 51.5W 17.5N 56.0W 18.0N 61.4W 18.7N 66.9W
LBAR 18.6N 50.7W 21.0N 55.2W 23.2N 59.8W 26.2N 63.1W
SHIP 29KTS 30KTS 31KTS 33KTS
DSHP 29KTS 30KTS 31KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.9N LONCUR = 45.0W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 17.3N LONM12 = 43.3W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 17.0N LONM24 = 41.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 105NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

WHXX01 KWBC 181220

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1220 UTC SUN SEP 18 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992011) 20110918 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110918 1200 110919 0000 110919 1200 110920 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 43.9W 17.8N 46.1W 18.2N 48.2W 18.5N 50.5W
BAMD 17.3N 43.9W 17.3N 44.1W 17.2N 44.6W 17.3N 45.5W
BAMM 17.3N 43.9W 17.5N 45.0W 17.5N 46.3W 17.5N 47.9W
LBAR 17.3N 43.9W 17.5N 44.6W 18.0N 45.6W 18.7N 46.7W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 23KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 23KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110920 1200 110921 1200 110922 1200 110923 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.9N 53.3W 20.2N 58.9W 21.7N 64.9W 23.8N 70.6W
BAMD 17.5N 46.7W 18.2N 49.7W 18.4N 53.4W 18.4N 57.9W
BAMM 17.7N 49.8W 18.2N 54.0W 18.6N 59.1W 19.1N 64.5W
LBAR 20.0N 48.1W 22.8N 51.4W 25.2N 54.4W 26.7N 56.8W
SHIP 24KTS 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS
DSHP 24KTS 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 43.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 17.2N LONM12 = 42.3W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 16.8N LONM24 = 40.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

WHXX01 KWBC 181220

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1220 UTC SUN SEP 18 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110918 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110918 1200 110919 0000 110919 1200 110920 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 35.2W 11.8N 36.3W 12.5N 37.7W 13.3N 39.6W
BAMD 11.0N 35.2W 11.7N 35.9W 12.4N 36.8W 13.2N 38.0W
BAMM 11.0N 35.2W 11.6N 36.3W 12.1N 37.4W 12.7N 38.8W
LBAR 11.0N 35.2W 11.5N 35.7W 12.3N 36.9W 13.5N 38.9W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110920 1200 110921 1200 110922 1200 110923 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 42.2W 16.1N 48.4W 17.9N 55.6W 19.5N 62.4W
BAMD 14.2N 39.7W 16.4N 43.4W 18.0N 46.3W 18.7N 47.9W
BAMM 13.3N 40.7W 14.7N 45.3W 15.9N 50.4W 16.9N 55.3W
LBAR 15.0N 41.0W 18.7N 45.8W 22.6N 49.1W 25.5N 51.0W
SHIP 46KTS 43KTS 32KTS 27KTS
DSHP 46KTS 43KTS 32KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 35.2W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 35.2W DIRM12 = 31DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 35.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

WHXX01 KWBC 181158

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1158 UTC SUN SEP 18 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992011) 20110918 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110918 0600 110918 1800 110919 0600 110919 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 43.3W 17.9N 45.4W 18.4N 47.4W 18.9N 49.5W
BAMD 17.3N 43.3W 17.4N 43.5W 17.3N 43.7W 17.3N 44.2W
BAMM 17.3N 43.3W 17.6N 44.4W 17.7N 45.6W 17.8N 46.9W
LBAR 17.3N 43.3W 17.5N 44.1W 18.1N 44.9W 18.9N 46.0W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 20KTS 20KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 20KTS 20KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110920 0600 110921 0600 110922 0600 110923 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.3N 51.8W 20.7N 56.9W 22.1N 62.3W 23.8N 67.5W
BAMD 17.4N 45.1W 17.9N 47.8W 17.9N 51.7W 17.5N 55.9W
BAMM 18.0N 48.6W 18.6N 52.6W 19.3N 57.2W 20.1N 61.9W
LBAR 20.2N 47.1W 23.2N 50.2W 26.0N 52.9W 27.3N 54.9W
SHIP 20KTS 19KTS 22KTS 30KTS
DSHP 20KTS 19KTS 22KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 43.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 41.2W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 38.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1001 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST
TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WITH MODELS INDICATING A MID LEVEL LOW
OVER THE HISPANOLA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER AND JUST UPWIND
OF THE LOCAL REGION ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WITH THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH LINGERING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW OF DAYS...WE CAN EXPECT A CONTINUANCE OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR DURING LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN DIURNAL PROCESSES TAKE PLACE.
FORECAST MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.

SHOWERY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

[cycloneye]

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR PUERTO RICO...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1009 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN A FEW PLACES ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY DID REACH THE UPPER 80S IN A
FEW PLACES INCLUDING PONCE...AND THE MID 80S AT MOST OTHER
STATIONS. RAIN SO FAR AT THE AIRPORT WAS FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH
DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS CAN GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS
OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINERS CAN EXPECT GENERALLY DECREASING WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.

$$

[underthwx]

http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/9717/20110919005.gif


Recent Ascat Pass...

[underthwx]

http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/4089/watllatest.gif

[cycloneye]

How are the rivers in PR doing.

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.ph ... 8,2,9,15,6

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More rain for today and watching the progress of 98L and 99L.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST MON SEP 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING DEPICTED ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH JUST ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING.
PWAT VALUES GREATER OR NEAR THAN 2.00 INCHES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLE BEYOND.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. THUS...WE CAN EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHEN DIURNAL PROCESSES TAKE PLACE. FORECAST MODELS DO NOT
INDICATE MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

LOOKING AHEAD...A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. AT THIS
MOMENT...BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ENTERING TO CARIBBEAN SEA BY
SATURDAY AND PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY SUNDAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THRU 19/14Z. TSRA ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AFT 19/10Z IN THE USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS AND AFT 19/15Z
OVER PR. MVFR OR IFR CONDS ARE PSBL DURG BRIEF PERIODS THRU 20/02Z
ALL SITES. EXPECT MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 19/14Z. LLVL WNDS ARE ESE TO
20 KT UP THROUGH 7 KFT BCMG SE TO S UP THROUGH 25 KFT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 89 77 / 50 50 50 30
STT 87 77 88 79 / 50 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

This mornings discussion of 98L by rob of Crown weather.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Invest 98L In The Central Atlantic:
I’m keeping a close eye on an intensifying low pressure system that is currently located around 1425 miles east of the Windward Islands. Satellite loops indicate that this system, designated Invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center, has become better organized overnight and it appears that 98L may become a tropical depression or a tropical storm within the next day or two. Most of the global model guidance do develop 98L into a tropical storm over the next few days, however, the GFS and European models forecast that this system will weaken into a tropical wave as it tracks across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean from Friday into Saturday.

Analyzing the environment around Invest 98L this morning, conditions are favorable for development and I do think we will see this develop into a tropical depression either later today or on Tuesday and then a tropical storm by about Wednesday. After that, it appears that the ridge of high pressure to the north of this system will strengthen causing 98L to accelerate in forward speed and the entire system outrunning itself and decoupling; causing it to weaken into a tropical wave as it gets into the eastern Caribbean late this week.

For those of you in Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago, please be aware that tropical storm conditions are a possibility starting Thursday night and continuing through all day Friday before slowly diminishing on Saturday.

[underthwx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191136
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[underthwx]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXNT20 KNHC 191143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR
12N37W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MAXIMIZED FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 34W-42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
07N-15N BETWEEN 36W-40W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO
10N25W TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N37W TO
09N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 23W-32W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 19W-30W...AND FROM 05N-12N
BETWEEN 30W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF NEAR 24N92W AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SE CONUS OVER GEORGIA THROUGH
29N90W IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO
COAST NEAR 21N97W. PRIMARILY E TO SE SURFACE WINDS IN THE RANGE
OF 10-15 KT WERE NOTED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 19/0336
UTC AND THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS WHICH
SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER NW PORTIONS OF THE GULF EARLY TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO
STALL...WHILE A REINFORCING FRONT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF
BY THURSDAY. SOME WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE TEXAS
COAST ARE AS OF 19/0900 UTC S TO SW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OCCURRING W OF A LINE FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE PREVALENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF E OF 90W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N92W TO
18N93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING S OF 20N BETWEEN 92W-95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N81W AND IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT W OF 74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FOCUSED ON MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST
OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING S OF 19N W OF
81W. E OF 74W...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH
ATLC SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE
NE CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
BROADEN OUT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
PROVIDING THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH CONTINUED WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER POSSIBILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 69W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N71W TO 31N73W WHERE
THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT W OF 70W. FARTHER TO THE SE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N67W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING OVER THE AREA FROM 18N-29N BETWEEN
61W-71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 58W-61W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING SOUTHWARD TO 15N BETWEEN 30W-45W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N41W TO 30N42W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35N30W TO
27N42W. FARTHER SOUTH...A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
17N47W THAT EXHIBITS A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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[underthwx]

000
FZNT23 KNHC 190924
OFFNT3

ATLC/CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SW AND TROPICAL
N ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...THE SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W
INCLUDING BAHAMAS...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

AMZ089-191530-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROUGH ACROSS WINDWARD PASSAGE MOVE W ACROSS
JAMAICA AND CUBA TODAY. HIGH PRES MAINTAIN MODERATE E BREEZE
ELSEWHERE IN BASIN. LOW PRES CENTER 1009 MB...POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN CENTRAL ATLC...MOVE THROUGH TROPICAL N ATLC LATE THU
AND INTO E CARIBBEAN LATE FRI.

$$
AMZ082-191530-
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 75W
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...E OF 83W E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. W OF 83W
NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ENTIRE AREA.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT S OF 18N E
OF 80W LATE. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT S OF 18N E OF 80W
LATE.
.THU AND FRI...S OF 18N E OF 80W E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO
5 FT. ELSEWHERE E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT SHIFTING NE FRI. SEAS
1 TO 3 FT.

$$
AMZ084-191530-
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 75W
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

.TODAY THROUGH WED...N OF 11N NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2
TO 3 FT IN NE SWELL SUBSIDING TO 1 FT TUE. S OF 11N NE WINDS 5
TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND FRI...N OF 11N E OF 79W NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS
4 TO 6 FT. N OF 11N W OF 79W NE TO E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4
FT. S OF 11N NW TO N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.

$$
AMZ086-191530-
E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...E OF 70W SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4
FT. W OF 70W NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS BETWEEN 66W AND 72W.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 70W.
.THU...NE TO E WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. SCATTERED TSTMS NE PORTION LATE.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.

$$
AMZ087-191530-
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

.TODAY THROUGH WED...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT N OF 17N LATE WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS NW PORTION TONIGHT.
.THU...N OF 12N NE TO E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT BUILDING TO
10 FT IN E SWELL LATE. S OF 12N NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS
3 TO 5 FT.
.FRI...N OF 12N NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SHIFTING SE LATE. SEAS
12 TO 18 FT. S OF 12N SE TO S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN E
SWELL.

$$
AMZ088-191530-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N72W TO 29N81W DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. SECOND TROUGH OVER WINDWARD PASSAGE DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTION THROUGH WED. HIGH PRES BUILDS LATE WED
THROUGH FRI.

$$
AMZ080-191530-
SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING BAHAMAS
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...N OF 27N W OF 72W NE TO E WINDS 10 KT
SHIFTING SE TONIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN NE SWELL. N OF 27N E OF
72W E TO SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. S OF 27N E TO SE
WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT EXCEPT 2 FT W OF BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED TSTMS.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT
EXCEPT 2 FT W OF BAHAMAS.
.FRI...N OF 27N W OF 72W SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 22N E TO SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT EXCEPT 3
FT W OF BAHAMAS. S OF 22N E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES




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[underthwx]

000
FZNT23 KNHC 190924
OFFNT3

ATLC/CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SW AND TROPICAL
N ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...THE SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W
INCLUDING BAHAMAS...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

AMZ089-191530-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROUGH ACROSS WINDWARD PASSAGE MOVE W ACROSS
JAMAICA AND CUBA TODAY. HIGH PRES MAINTAIN MODERATE E BREEZE
ELSEWHERE IN BASIN. LOW PRES CENTER 1009 MB...POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN CENTRAL ATLC...MOVE THROUGH TROPICAL N ATLC LATE THU
AND INTO E CARIBBEAN LATE FRI.

$$
AMZ082-191530-
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 75W
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...E OF 83W E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. W OF 83W
NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ENTIRE AREA.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT S OF 18N E
OF 80W LATE. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT S OF 18N E OF 80W
LATE.
.THU AND FRI...S OF 18N E OF 80W E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO
5 FT. ELSEWHERE E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT SHIFTING NE FRI. SEAS
1 TO 3 FT.

$$
AMZ084-191530-
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 75W
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

.TODAY THROUGH WED...N OF 11N NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2
TO 3 FT IN NE SWELL SUBSIDING TO 1 FT TUE. S OF 11N NE WINDS 5
TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND FRI...N OF 11N E OF 79W NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS
4 TO 6 FT. N OF 11N W OF 79W NE TO E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4
FT. S OF 11N NW TO N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.

$$
AMZ086-191530-
E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...E OF 70W SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4
FT. W OF 70W NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS BETWEEN 66W AND 72W.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 70W.
.THU...NE TO E WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. SCATTERED TSTMS NE PORTION LATE.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.

$$
AMZ087-191530-
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

.TODAY THROUGH WED...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT N OF 17N LATE WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS NW PORTION TONIGHT.
.THU...N OF 12N NE TO E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT BUILDING TO
10 FT IN E SWELL LATE. S OF 12N NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS
3 TO 5 FT.
.FRI...N OF 12N NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SHIFTING SE LATE. SEAS
12 TO 18 FT. S OF 12N SE TO S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN E
SWELL.

$$
AMZ088-191530-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N72W TO 29N81W DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. SECOND TROUGH OVER WINDWARD PASSAGE DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTION THROUGH WED. HIGH PRES BUILDS LATE WED
THROUGH FRI.

$$
AMZ080-191530-
SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING BAHAMAS
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...N OF 27N W OF 72W NE TO E WINDS 10 KT
SHIFTING SE TONIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN NE SWELL. N OF 27N E OF
72W E TO SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. S OF 27N E TO SE
WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT EXCEPT 2 FT W OF BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED TSTMS.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT
EXCEPT 2 FT W OF BAHAMAS.
.FRI...N OF 27N W OF 72W SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 22N E TO SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT EXCEPT 3
FT W OF BAHAMAS. S OF 22N E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES




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[underthwx]

000
FZNT23 KNHC 190924
OFFNT3

ATLC/CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SW AND TROPICAL
N ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...THE SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W
INCLUDING BAHAMAS...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

AMZ089-191530-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROUGH ACROSS WINDWARD PASSAGE MOVE W ACROSS
JAMAICA AND CUBA TODAY. HIGH PRES MAINTAIN MODERATE E BREEZE
ELSEWHERE IN BASIN. LOW PRES CENTER 1009 MB...POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN CENTRAL ATLC...MOVE THROUGH TROPICAL N ATLC LATE THU
AND INTO E CARIBBEAN LATE FRI.

$$
AMZ082-191530-
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 75W
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...E OF 83W E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. W OF 83W
NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ENTIRE AREA.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT S OF 18N E
OF 80W LATE. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT S OF 18N E OF 80W
LATE.
.THU AND FRI...S OF 18N E OF 80W E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO
5 FT. ELSEWHERE E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT SHIFTING NE FRI. SEAS
1 TO 3 FT.

$$
AMZ084-191530-
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 75W
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

.TODAY THROUGH WED...N OF 11N NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2
TO 3 FT IN NE SWELL SUBSIDING TO 1 FT TUE. S OF 11N NE WINDS 5
TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND FRI...N OF 11N E OF 79W NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS
4 TO 6 FT. N OF 11N W OF 79W NE TO E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4
FT. S OF 11N NW TO N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.

$$
AMZ086-191530-
E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...E OF 70W SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4
FT. W OF 70W NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS BETWEEN 66W AND 72W.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 70W.
.THU...NE TO E WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. SCATTERED TSTMS NE PORTION LATE.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.

$$
AMZ087-191530-
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

.TODAY THROUGH WED...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT N OF 17N LATE WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS NW PORTION TONIGHT.
.THU...N OF 12N NE TO E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT BUILDING TO
10 FT IN E SWELL LATE. S OF 12N NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS
3 TO 5 FT.
.FRI...N OF 12N NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SHIFTING SE LATE. SEAS
12 TO 18 FT. S OF 12N SE TO S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN E
SWELL.

$$
AMZ088-191530-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N72W TO 29N81W DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. SECOND TROUGH OVER WINDWARD PASSAGE DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTION THROUGH WED. HIGH PRES BUILDS LATE WED
THROUGH FRI.

$$
AMZ080-191530-
SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING BAHAMAS
530 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...N OF 27N W OF 72W NE TO E WINDS 10 KT
SHIFTING SE TONIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN NE SWELL. N OF 27N E OF
72W E TO SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. S OF 27N E TO SE
WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT EXCEPT 2 FT W OF BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED TSTMS.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT
EXCEPT 2 FT W OF BAHAMAS.
.FRI...N OF 27N W OF 72W SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 22N E TO SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT EXCEPT 3
FT W OF BAHAMAS. S OF 22N E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES




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[underthwx]

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
801 AM AST MON SEP 19 2011

AMZ732-735-741-745-191500-
801 AM AST MON SEP 19 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS...

AT 753 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS... OVER
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE
SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE
LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY
UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 1701 6736 1750 6800 1832 6800 1773 6681
1702 6593