AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1107 AM AST MON SEP 19 2011
.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN.
THIS SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND SOME SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING.
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY...MVFR OR IFR CONDS ARE PSBL DURING BRIEF
PERIODS THRU 20/02Z AT ALL SITES. EXPECT MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT
19/15Z. LLVL WNDS ARE ESE TO 20 KT UP THROUGH 10 KFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM AST MON SEP 19 2011/
SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING DEPICTED ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH JUST ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING.
PWAT VALUES GREATER OR NEAR THAN 2.00 INCHES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLE BEYOND.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. THUS...WE CAN EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHEN DIURNAL PROCESSES TAKE PLACE. FORECAST MODELS DO NOT
INDICATE MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD...A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. AT THIS
MOMENT...BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ENTERING TO CARIBBEAN SEA BY
SATURDAY AND PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY SUNDAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THRU 19/14Z. TSRA ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AFT 19/10Z IN THE USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS AND AFT 19/15Z
OVER PR. MVFR OR IFR CONDS ARE PSBL DURG BRIEF PERIODS THRU 20/02Z
ALL SITES. EXPECT MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 19/14Z. LLVL WNDS ARE ESE TO
20 KT UP THROUGH 7 KFT BCMG SE TO S UP THROUGH 25 KFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 89 77 / 50 50 50 30
STT 87 77 88 79 / 50 50 50 40
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Caribbean - Central America Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
REGARDING 98L: 
LOOKING AHEAD...A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. AT THIS
MOMENT...BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ENTERING TO CARIBBEAN SEA BY
SATURDAY AND PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY SUNDAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. STAY TUNED FOR UPDTES ON 98L.
LOOKING AHEAD...A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. AT THIS
MOMENT...BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ENTERING TO CARIBBEAN SEA BY
SATURDAY AND PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY SUNDAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. STAY TUNED FOR UPDTES ON 98L.
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
underthwx wrote:REGARDING 98L:
LOOKING AHEAD...A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. AT THIS
MOMENT...BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ENTERING TO CARIBBEAN SEA BY
SATURDAY AND PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY SUNDAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. STAY TUNED FOR UPDTES ON 98L.
Something to keep an eye on...
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
Yes unfortunately Gusty...will follow the progress very closely today...and the upcoming week...
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1032 AM AST MON SEP 19 2011
PRZ001-002-012-013-VIZ001-191700-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
1032 AM AST MON SEP 19 2011
.NOW...CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND AFFECTED THE EASTERN
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO...THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN
AREA...VIEQUES...SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS AND SOME WILL ALSO AFFECT THE
ISLAND OF CULEBRA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...CAUSING BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MINOR PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1032 AM AST MON SEP 19 2011
PRZ001-002-012-013-VIZ001-191700-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
1032 AM AST MON SEP 19 2011
.NOW...CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND AFFECTED THE EASTERN
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO...THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN
AREA...VIEQUES...SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS AND SOME WILL ALSO AFFECT THE
ISLAND OF CULEBRA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...CAUSING BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MINOR PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
http://static.cfnews13.com/images/wx/cf ... ibbean.jpg
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY:
Looks like considerable dry air in front of 98L...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY:
Looks like considerable dry air in front of 98L...
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
underthwx wrote::uarrow: Yes unfortunately Gusty...will follow the progress very closely today...and the upcoming week...
Agree with that
we should have to monitor it during the next couple of days.
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
Another item we're watching this week is a tropical disturbance out in the Atlantic. For now, its only "name" is 98L, but the National Hurricane Center is estimating about a 60% chance it becomes a tropical cyclone within the next day or two. If it becomes a tropical storm before any other system spins up out there, it would get the name "Ophelia." So far, most computer models take it on a westerly track that would leave it somewhere a little south of Puerto Rico or Hispaniola by late in the weekend, with intensity forecasts suggesting it may have a tough time becoming a hurricane, or may even be vulnerable to some dissipation by early next week. Of course, tropical system intensity forecasting remains a great challenge, so we'll probably have to wait a few days to get a better sense of how that will all play out.(WRAL)
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
98L SFWMD LATEST MODELS:
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_98.gif
99L SFWMD LATEST MODELS:
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_99.gif
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_98.gif
99L SFWMD LATEST MODELS:
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_99.gif
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1220 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
PRZ008>010-191830-
NORTHWEST-WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-
1220 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
.NOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CAUSING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING
AREAS.
$$
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1220 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
PRZ008>010-191830-
NORTHWEST-WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-
1220 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
.NOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CAUSING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING
AREAS.
$$
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
In The Central Atlantic Likely To Develop Into A Tropical Depression Within The Next Day Or So & May Affect The Windward Islands, Barbados & Trinidad & Tobago With Tropical Storm Conditions By Thursday Night & Friday
Rob Lightbown on September 19, 2011, 5:25 am
Invest 98L In The Central Atlantic:
I’m keeping a close eye on an intensifying low pressure system that is currently located around 1425 miles east of the Windward Islands. Satellite loops indicate that this system, designated Invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center, has become better organized overnight and it appears that 98L may become a tropical depression or a tropical storm within the next day or two. Most of the global model guidance do develop 98L into a tropical storm over the next few days, however, the GFS and European models forecast that this system will weaken into a tropical wave as it tracks across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean from Friday into Saturday.
Analyzing the environment around Invest 98L this morning, conditions are favorable for development and I do think we will see this develop into a tropical depression either later today or on Tuesday and then a tropical storm by about Wednesday. After that, it appears that the ridge of high pressure to the north of this system will strengthen causing 98L to accelerate in forward speed and the entire system outrunning itself and decoupling; causing it to weaken into a tropical wave as it gets into the eastern Caribbean late this week.
For those of you in Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago, please be aware that tropical storm conditions are a possibility starting Thursday night and continuing through all day Friday before slowly diminishing on Saturday.
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/i ... smodel.gif
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/i ... ensity.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg
Mon Sep 19 12:49:17 EDT 2011
WHXX01 KWBC 191246
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1246 UTC MON SEP 19 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992011) 20110919 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110919 1200 110920 0000 110920 1200 110921 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 48.3W 17.9N 50.4W 18.2N 53.0W 18.8N 55.7W
BAMD 17.6N 48.3W 17.2N 49.3W 17.0N 50.6W 16.9N 52.2W
BAMM 17.6N 48.3W 17.3N 49.9W 17.2N 51.9W 17.2N 54.2W
LBAR 17.6N 48.3W 17.9N 49.7W 18.2N 51.3W 18.7N 53.1W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110921 1200 110922 1200 110923 1200 110924 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 58.6W 20.5N 64.9W 22.4N 71.0W 24.7N 75.0W
BAMD 16.7N 54.1W 16.4N 58.6W 16.0N 63.3W 15.8N 66.9W
BAMM 17.3N 56.7W 17.7N 62.3W 18.6N 68.0W 19.7N 72.4W
LBAR 19.2N 55.0W 20.4N 59.5W 22.0N 64.4W 24.8N 67.1W
SHIP 29KTS 29KTS 29KTS 35KTS
DSHP 29KTS 29KTS 29KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 48.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 45.9W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 43.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 191242
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1242 UTC MON SEP 19 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110919 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110919 1200 110920 0000 110920 1200 110921 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 37.7W 12.0N 39.1W 12.2N 41.3W 12.6N 43.9W
BAMD 11.7N 37.7W 12.1N 38.9W 12.6N 40.4W 13.2N 42.2W
BAMM 11.7N 37.7W 11.9N 38.9W 12.1N 40.6W 12.5N 42.7W
LBAR 11.7N 37.7W 12.2N 38.8W 13.1N 40.4W 14.3N 42.5W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110921 1200 110922 1200 110923 1200 110924 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 47.1W 12.8N 54.4W 11.7N 61.7W 11.3N 67.4W
BAMD 13.8N 44.3W 15.1N 48.5W 16.1N 52.4W 17.8N 55.7W
BAMM 12.8N 45.2W 13.1N 50.4W 13.6N 55.4W 15.2N 59.6W
LBAR 15.8N 44.9W 19.2N 49.6W 22.6N 52.9W 25.3N 54.0W
SHIP 42KTS 46KTS 45KTS 46KTS
DSHP 42KTS 46KTS 45KTS 46KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 37.7W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 11.7N LONM12 = 36.7W DIRM12 = 259DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 35.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 191237
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1237 UTC MON SEP 19 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110919 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110919 1200 110920 0000 110920 1200 110921 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 37.6W 12.0N 39.0W 12.2N 41.2W 12.7N 43.8W
BAMD 11.7N 37.6W 12.1N 38.8W 12.7N 40.3W 13.3N 42.2W
BAMM 11.7N 37.6W 11.9N 38.8W 12.2N 40.6W 12.6N 42.7W
LBAR 11.7N 37.6W 12.2N 38.7W 13.1N 40.4W 14.4N 42.4W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110921 1200 110922 1200 110923 1200 110924 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 47.1W 12.8N 54.4W 11.7N 61.8W 11.4N 67.5W
BAMD 13.9N 44.2W 15.2N 48.4W 16.3N 52.2W 17.9N 55.5W
BAMM 12.9N 45.2W 13.2N 50.5W 13.7N 55.5W 15.2N 59.7W
LBAR 15.8N 44.8W 19.2N 49.6W 22.6N 52.9W 25.3N 53.9W
SHIP 41KTS 45KTS 44KTS 45KTS
DSHP 41KTS 45KTS 44KTS 45KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 37.6W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 11.7N LONM12 = 36.7W DIRM12 = 259DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 35.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 190559
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0559 UTC MON SEP 19 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992011) 20110919 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110919 0600 110919 1800 110920 0600 110920 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 47.1W 17.3N 49.2W 17.4N 51.6W 18.0N 54.4W
BAMD 17.0N 47.1W 16.6N 48.1W 16.4N 49.3W 16.3N 50.9W
BAMM 17.0N 47.1W 16.7N 48.7W 16.6N 50.5W 16.6N 52.6W
LBAR 17.0N 47.1W 16.9N 48.6W 17.2N 50.3W 17.6N 52.2W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110921 0600 110922 0600 110923 0600 110924 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.4N 57.2W 19.6N 63.8W 21.6N 70.4W 24.2N 74.9W
BAMD 16.3N 52.8W 16.1N 57.5W 15.6N 62.6W 15.2N 67.0W
BAMM 16.7N 55.0W 17.0N 60.6W 17.7N 66.8W 18.7N 72.1W
LBAR 18.1N 54.2W 19.4N 59.0W 20.6N 64.3W 21.5N 67.7W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 36KTS 41KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 36KTS 31KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 47.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 45.0W DIRM12 = 258DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 43.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 190557
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0557 UTC MON SEP 19 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110919 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110919 0600 110919 1800 110920 0600 110920 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 37.2W 12.2N 38.6W 12.4N 40.5W 12.7N 43.1W
BAMD 11.7N 37.2W 12.2N 38.4W 12.7N 39.8W 13.2N 41.5W
BAMM 11.7N 37.2W 12.0N 38.4W 12.1N 39.9W 12.4N 41.9W
LBAR 11.7N 37.2W 12.1N 38.2W 13.1N 39.7W 14.3N 41.8W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 38KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110921 0600 110922 0600 110923 0600 110924 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 46.0W 13.0N 53.1W 12.0N 60.4W 11.3N 66.4W
BAMD 13.8N 43.5W 14.8N 47.9W 15.7N 52.0W 17.2N 55.7W
BAMM 12.5N 44.2W 12.6N 49.6W 12.7N 54.7W 13.9N 59.1W
LBAR 15.7N 44.2W 18.6N 49.0W 21.2N 52.9W 23.8N 55.9W
SHIP 42KTS 46KTS 47KTS 49KTS
DSHP 42KTS 46KTS 47KTS 49KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 37.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 36.2W DIRM12 = 253DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 35.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 190005
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0005 UTC MON SEP 19 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992011) 20110919 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110919 0000 110919 1200 110920 0000 110920 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 45.9W 17.3N 48.0W 17.5N 50.1W 17.9N 52.8W
BAMD 16.9N 45.9W 16.4N 46.6W 16.3N 47.6W 16.2N 49.0W
BAMM 16.9N 45.9W 16.7N 47.2W 16.7N 48.8W 16.7N 50.7W
LBAR 16.9N 45.9W 16.9N 47.0W 17.2N 48.3W 17.8N 49.9W
SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 24KTS 24KTS
DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 24KTS 24KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110921 0000 110922 0000 110923 0000 110924 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.6N 55.4W 19.8N 61.5W 21.4N 67.8W 23.7N 73.0W
BAMD 16.2N 50.7W 16.2N 54.8W 15.8N 59.6W 15.3N 64.0W
BAMM 17.0N 52.8W 17.3N 57.6W 17.6N 63.1W 18.0N 68.5W
LBAR 18.6N 51.6W 20.4N 55.8W 22.1N 60.5W 23.9N 64.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS 32KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS 32KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.9N LONCUR = 45.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 17.3N LONM12 = 43.9W DIRM12 = 256DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 17.2N LONM24 = 42.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 190003
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0003 UTC MON SEP 19 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110919 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110919 0000 110919 1200 110920 0000 110920 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.9N 37.1W 12.5N 38.5W 12.9N 40.2W 13.0N 42.6W
BAMD 11.9N 37.1W 12.3N 38.2W 12.8N 39.4W 13.2N 41.0W
BAMM 11.9N 37.1W 12.2N 38.3W 12.3N 39.5W 12.3N 41.3W
LBAR 11.9N 37.1W 12.3N 38.3W 13.3N 40.0W 14.5N 41.9W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110921 0000 110922 0000 110923 0000 110924 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 45.3W 13.2N 52.1W 12.6N 59.5W 12.0N 66.6W
BAMD 13.7N 42.8W 14.6N 47.0W 15.5N 51.2W 16.7N 55.0W
BAMM 12.3N 43.2W 12.2N 48.0W 12.4N 53.3W 13.4N 57.9W
LBAR 15.8N 44.1W 18.7N 48.8W 21.7N 52.8W 24.2N 55.2W
SHIP 47KTS 50KTS 54KTS 56KTS
DSHP 47KTS 50KTS 54KTS 56KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.9N LONCUR = 37.1W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 35.7W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 35.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
98L LOOKING BETTER ORGANIZED...PLEASE STAY TUNED.
Rob Lightbown on September 19, 2011, 5:25 am
Invest 98L In The Central Atlantic:
I’m keeping a close eye on an intensifying low pressure system that is currently located around 1425 miles east of the Windward Islands. Satellite loops indicate that this system, designated Invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center, has become better organized overnight and it appears that 98L may become a tropical depression or a tropical storm within the next day or two. Most of the global model guidance do develop 98L into a tropical storm over the next few days, however, the GFS and European models forecast that this system will weaken into a tropical wave as it tracks across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean from Friday into Saturday.
Analyzing the environment around Invest 98L this morning, conditions are favorable for development and I do think we will see this develop into a tropical depression either later today or on Tuesday and then a tropical storm by about Wednesday. After that, it appears that the ridge of high pressure to the north of this system will strengthen causing 98L to accelerate in forward speed and the entire system outrunning itself and decoupling; causing it to weaken into a tropical wave as it gets into the eastern Caribbean late this week.
For those of you in Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago, please be aware that tropical storm conditions are a possibility starting Thursday night and continuing through all day Friday before slowly diminishing on Saturday.
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/i ... smodel.gif
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/i ... ensity.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg
Mon Sep 19 12:49:17 EDT 2011
WHXX01 KWBC 191246
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1246 UTC MON SEP 19 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992011) 20110919 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110919 1200 110920 0000 110920 1200 110921 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 48.3W 17.9N 50.4W 18.2N 53.0W 18.8N 55.7W
BAMD 17.6N 48.3W 17.2N 49.3W 17.0N 50.6W 16.9N 52.2W
BAMM 17.6N 48.3W 17.3N 49.9W 17.2N 51.9W 17.2N 54.2W
LBAR 17.6N 48.3W 17.9N 49.7W 18.2N 51.3W 18.7N 53.1W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110921 1200 110922 1200 110923 1200 110924 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 58.6W 20.5N 64.9W 22.4N 71.0W 24.7N 75.0W
BAMD 16.7N 54.1W 16.4N 58.6W 16.0N 63.3W 15.8N 66.9W
BAMM 17.3N 56.7W 17.7N 62.3W 18.6N 68.0W 19.7N 72.4W
LBAR 19.2N 55.0W 20.4N 59.5W 22.0N 64.4W 24.8N 67.1W
SHIP 29KTS 29KTS 29KTS 35KTS
DSHP 29KTS 29KTS 29KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 48.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 45.9W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 43.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 191242
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1242 UTC MON SEP 19 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110919 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110919 1200 110920 0000 110920 1200 110921 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 37.7W 12.0N 39.1W 12.2N 41.3W 12.6N 43.9W
BAMD 11.7N 37.7W 12.1N 38.9W 12.6N 40.4W 13.2N 42.2W
BAMM 11.7N 37.7W 11.9N 38.9W 12.1N 40.6W 12.5N 42.7W
LBAR 11.7N 37.7W 12.2N 38.8W 13.1N 40.4W 14.3N 42.5W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110921 1200 110922 1200 110923 1200 110924 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 47.1W 12.8N 54.4W 11.7N 61.7W 11.3N 67.4W
BAMD 13.8N 44.3W 15.1N 48.5W 16.1N 52.4W 17.8N 55.7W
BAMM 12.8N 45.2W 13.1N 50.4W 13.6N 55.4W 15.2N 59.6W
LBAR 15.8N 44.9W 19.2N 49.6W 22.6N 52.9W 25.3N 54.0W
SHIP 42KTS 46KTS 45KTS 46KTS
DSHP 42KTS 46KTS 45KTS 46KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 37.7W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 11.7N LONM12 = 36.7W DIRM12 = 259DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 35.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 191237
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1237 UTC MON SEP 19 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110919 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110919 1200 110920 0000 110920 1200 110921 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 37.6W 12.0N 39.0W 12.2N 41.2W 12.7N 43.8W
BAMD 11.7N 37.6W 12.1N 38.8W 12.7N 40.3W 13.3N 42.2W
BAMM 11.7N 37.6W 11.9N 38.8W 12.2N 40.6W 12.6N 42.7W
LBAR 11.7N 37.6W 12.2N 38.7W 13.1N 40.4W 14.4N 42.4W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110921 1200 110922 1200 110923 1200 110924 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 47.1W 12.8N 54.4W 11.7N 61.8W 11.4N 67.5W
BAMD 13.9N 44.2W 15.2N 48.4W 16.3N 52.2W 17.9N 55.5W
BAMM 12.9N 45.2W 13.2N 50.5W 13.7N 55.5W 15.2N 59.7W
LBAR 15.8N 44.8W 19.2N 49.6W 22.6N 52.9W 25.3N 53.9W
SHIP 41KTS 45KTS 44KTS 45KTS
DSHP 41KTS 45KTS 44KTS 45KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 37.6W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 11.7N LONM12 = 36.7W DIRM12 = 259DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 35.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 190559
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0559 UTC MON SEP 19 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992011) 20110919 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110919 0600 110919 1800 110920 0600 110920 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 47.1W 17.3N 49.2W 17.4N 51.6W 18.0N 54.4W
BAMD 17.0N 47.1W 16.6N 48.1W 16.4N 49.3W 16.3N 50.9W
BAMM 17.0N 47.1W 16.7N 48.7W 16.6N 50.5W 16.6N 52.6W
LBAR 17.0N 47.1W 16.9N 48.6W 17.2N 50.3W 17.6N 52.2W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110921 0600 110922 0600 110923 0600 110924 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.4N 57.2W 19.6N 63.8W 21.6N 70.4W 24.2N 74.9W
BAMD 16.3N 52.8W 16.1N 57.5W 15.6N 62.6W 15.2N 67.0W
BAMM 16.7N 55.0W 17.0N 60.6W 17.7N 66.8W 18.7N 72.1W
LBAR 18.1N 54.2W 19.4N 59.0W 20.6N 64.3W 21.5N 67.7W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 36KTS 41KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 36KTS 31KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 47.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 45.0W DIRM12 = 258DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 43.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 190557
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0557 UTC MON SEP 19 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110919 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110919 0600 110919 1800 110920 0600 110920 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 37.2W 12.2N 38.6W 12.4N 40.5W 12.7N 43.1W
BAMD 11.7N 37.2W 12.2N 38.4W 12.7N 39.8W 13.2N 41.5W
BAMM 11.7N 37.2W 12.0N 38.4W 12.1N 39.9W 12.4N 41.9W
LBAR 11.7N 37.2W 12.1N 38.2W 13.1N 39.7W 14.3N 41.8W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 38KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110921 0600 110922 0600 110923 0600 110924 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 46.0W 13.0N 53.1W 12.0N 60.4W 11.3N 66.4W
BAMD 13.8N 43.5W 14.8N 47.9W 15.7N 52.0W 17.2N 55.7W
BAMM 12.5N 44.2W 12.6N 49.6W 12.7N 54.7W 13.9N 59.1W
LBAR 15.7N 44.2W 18.6N 49.0W 21.2N 52.9W 23.8N 55.9W
SHIP 42KTS 46KTS 47KTS 49KTS
DSHP 42KTS 46KTS 47KTS 49KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 37.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 36.2W DIRM12 = 253DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 35.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 190005
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0005 UTC MON SEP 19 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992011) 20110919 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110919 0000 110919 1200 110920 0000 110920 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 45.9W 17.3N 48.0W 17.5N 50.1W 17.9N 52.8W
BAMD 16.9N 45.9W 16.4N 46.6W 16.3N 47.6W 16.2N 49.0W
BAMM 16.9N 45.9W 16.7N 47.2W 16.7N 48.8W 16.7N 50.7W
LBAR 16.9N 45.9W 16.9N 47.0W 17.2N 48.3W 17.8N 49.9W
SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 24KTS 24KTS
DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 24KTS 24KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110921 0000 110922 0000 110923 0000 110924 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.6N 55.4W 19.8N 61.5W 21.4N 67.8W 23.7N 73.0W
BAMD 16.2N 50.7W 16.2N 54.8W 15.8N 59.6W 15.3N 64.0W
BAMM 17.0N 52.8W 17.3N 57.6W 17.6N 63.1W 18.0N 68.5W
LBAR 18.6N 51.6W 20.4N 55.8W 22.1N 60.5W 23.9N 64.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS 32KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS 32KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.9N LONCUR = 45.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 17.3N LONM12 = 43.9W DIRM12 = 256DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 17.2N LONM24 = 42.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 190003
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0003 UTC MON SEP 19 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110919 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110919 0000 110919 1200 110920 0000 110920 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.9N 37.1W 12.5N 38.5W 12.9N 40.2W 13.0N 42.6W
BAMD 11.9N 37.1W 12.3N 38.2W 12.8N 39.4W 13.2N 41.0W
BAMM 11.9N 37.1W 12.2N 38.3W 12.3N 39.5W 12.3N 41.3W
LBAR 11.9N 37.1W 12.3N 38.3W 13.3N 40.0W 14.5N 41.9W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110921 0000 110922 0000 110923 0000 110924 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 45.3W 13.2N 52.1W 12.6N 59.5W 12.0N 66.6W
BAMD 13.7N 42.8W 14.6N 47.0W 15.5N 51.2W 16.7N 55.0W
BAMM 12.3N 43.2W 12.2N 48.0W 12.4N 53.3W 13.4N 57.9W
LBAR 15.8N 44.1W 18.7N 48.8W 21.7N 52.8W 24.2N 55.2W
SHIP 47KTS 50KTS 54KTS 56KTS
DSHP 47KTS 50KTS 54KTS 56KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.9N LONCUR = 37.1W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 35.7W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 35.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
98L LOOKING BETTER ORGANIZED...PLEASE STAY TUNED.
0 likes
Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
WHXX01 KWBC 191246
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1246 UTC MON SEP 19 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992011) 20110919 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110919 1200 110920 0000 110920 1200 110921 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 48.3W 17.9N 50.4W 18.2N 53.0W 18.8N 55.7W
BAMD 17.6N 48.3W 17.2N 49.3W 17.0N 50.6W 16.9N 52.2W
BAMM 17.6N 48.3W 17.3N 49.9W 17.2N 51.9W 17.2N 54.2W
LBAR 17.6N 48.3W 17.9N 49.7W 18.2N 51.3W 18.7N 53.1W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110921 1200 110922 1200 110923 1200 110924 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 58.6W 20.5N 64.9W 22.4N 71.0W 24.7N 75.0W
BAMD 16.7N 54.1W 16.4N 58.6W 16.0N 63.3W 15.8N 66.9W
BAMM 17.3N 56.7W 17.7N 62.3W 18.6N 68.0W 19.7N 72.4W
LBAR 19.2N 55.0W 20.4N 59.5W 22.0N 64.4W 24.8N 67.1W
SHIP 29KTS 29KTS 29KTS 35KTS
DSHP 29KTS 29KTS 29KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 48.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 45.9W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 43.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1246 UTC MON SEP 19 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992011) 20110919 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110919 1200 110920 0000 110920 1200 110921 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 48.3W 17.9N 50.4W 18.2N 53.0W 18.8N 55.7W
BAMD 17.6N 48.3W 17.2N 49.3W 17.0N 50.6W 16.9N 52.2W
BAMM 17.6N 48.3W 17.3N 49.9W 17.2N 51.9W 17.2N 54.2W
LBAR 17.6N 48.3W 17.9N 49.7W 18.2N 51.3W 18.7N 53.1W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110921 1200 110922 1200 110923 1200 110924 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 58.6W 20.5N 64.9W 22.4N 71.0W 24.7N 75.0W
BAMD 16.7N 54.1W 16.4N 58.6W 16.0N 63.3W 15.8N 66.9W
BAMM 17.3N 56.7W 17.7N 62.3W 18.6N 68.0W 19.7N 72.4W
LBAR 19.2N 55.0W 20.4N 59.5W 22.0N 64.4W 24.8N 67.1W
SHIP 29KTS 29KTS 29KTS 35KTS
DSHP 29KTS 29KTS 29KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 48.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 45.9W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 43.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
0 likes
Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
Dr. Jeff Masters
A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles (Invest 98L) continues to look well-organized on satellite imagery, with a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin. An ASCAT pass from 8:08 pm EDT last night showed 98L was close to closing off a well-defined surface circulation. Wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model is light, less than 10 knots, and is predicted to stay light to moderate through Friday. Ocean temperatures are 28 - 28.5°C, well above the threshold typically needed for a tropical storm to spin up. Water vapor satellite images show 98L is embedded in a moist environment, but there is dry air to the system's northwest. However, given the light wind shear, this dry air may not pose a hindrance to development at this time. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a pattern favorable for development, with an outflow channel open to both the north and south available to ventilate the storm and allow 98L to efficiently lift plenty of moisture to high levels.
The models are not very aggressive about developing 98L into a tropical depression, but most of them do show some weak development. NHC gave the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook. Given the recent increase in spin on visible satellite images and favorable environment for development, I'd bump these odds up to 70%. 98L is currently moving little, but is expected to begin a westward motion at 10 mph today. This motion would take 98L into the Lesser Antilles Islands by Friday or Saturday. The northern Lesser Antilles would be most likely to see the core of the storm, as has been the case for all of this year's disturbances. However, a more southerly path across Barbados, as predicted by the GFS model, cannot be ruled out. Once 98L does reach the Lesser Antilles, all of the models indicate the storm will see a sharp increase in vertical wind shear due to strong upper-level winds out of the west. This shear should make it difficult for 98L to intensify as it moves though the islands.
A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles (Invest 98L) continues to look well-organized on satellite imagery, with a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin. An ASCAT pass from 8:08 pm EDT last night showed 98L was close to closing off a well-defined surface circulation. Wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model is light, less than 10 knots, and is predicted to stay light to moderate through Friday. Ocean temperatures are 28 - 28.5°C, well above the threshold typically needed for a tropical storm to spin up. Water vapor satellite images show 98L is embedded in a moist environment, but there is dry air to the system's northwest. However, given the light wind shear, this dry air may not pose a hindrance to development at this time. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a pattern favorable for development, with an outflow channel open to both the north and south available to ventilate the storm and allow 98L to efficiently lift plenty of moisture to high levels.
The models are not very aggressive about developing 98L into a tropical depression, but most of them do show some weak development. NHC gave the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook. Given the recent increase in spin on visible satellite images and favorable environment for development, I'd bump these odds up to 70%. 98L is currently moving little, but is expected to begin a westward motion at 10 mph today. This motion would take 98L into the Lesser Antilles Islands by Friday or Saturday. The northern Lesser Antilles would be most likely to see the core of the storm, as has been the case for all of this year's disturbances. However, a more southerly path across Barbados, as predicted by the GFS model, cannot be ruled out. Once 98L does reach the Lesser Antilles, all of the models indicate the storm will see a sharp increase in vertical wind shear due to strong upper-level winds out of the west. This shear should make it difficult for 98L to intensify as it moves though the islands.
0 likes
Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1254 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
PRC003-005-011-071-083-097-099-117-131-191900-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0457.110919T1654Z-110919T1900Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-RINCON PR-
AGUADILLA PR-ISABELA PR-AGUADA PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
1254 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS...RINCON...
AGUADILLA...ISABELA...AGUADA AND MAYAGUEZ
* UNTIL 300 PM AST
* AT 1254 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER RISES.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1850 6698 1821 6692 1822 6718 1828 6720
1831 6725 1836 6728 1838 6727 1839 6722
1842 6717 1848 6718 1852 6714 1852 6701
$$
JJA
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1254 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
PRC003-005-011-071-083-097-099-117-131-191900-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0457.110919T1654Z-110919T1900Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-RINCON PR-
AGUADILLA PR-ISABELA PR-AGUADA PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
1254 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS...RINCON...
AGUADILLA...ISABELA...AGUADA AND MAYAGUEZ
* UNTIL 300 PM AST
* AT 1254 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER RISES.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1850 6698 1821 6692 1822 6718 1828 6720
1831 6725 1836 6728 1838 6727 1839 6722
1842 6717 1848 6718 1852 6714 1852 6701
$$
JJA
0 likes
Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
120 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
PRC009-019-039-043-047-073-075-101-107-113-141-149-192015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0458.110919T1720Z-110919T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BARRANQUITAS PR-CIALES PR-COAMO PR-COROZAL PR-JAYUYA PR-JUANA DIAZ
PR-MOROVIS PR-OROCOVIS PR-PONCE PR-UTUADO PR-VILLALBA PR-AIBONITO PR-
120 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
BARRANQUITAS...CIALES...COAMO...COROZAL...JAYUYA...JUANA DIAZ...
MOROVIS...OROCOVIS...PONCE...UTUADO...VILLALBA AND AIBONITO
* UNTIL 415 PM AST
* AT 119 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER
RISES.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1832 6672 1833 6634 1811 6627 1816 6665
$$
JJA
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1254 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
PRC003-005-011-071-083-097-099-117-131-191900-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0457.110919T1654Z-110919T1900Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-RINCON PR-
AGUADILLA PR-ISABELA PR-AGUADA PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
1254 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS...RINCON...
AGUADILLA...ISABELA...AGUADA AND MAYAGUEZ
* UNTIL 300 PM AST
* AT 1254 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER RISES.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1850 6698 1821 6692 1822 6718 1828 6720
1831 6725 1836 6728 1838 6727 1839 6722
1842 6717 1848 6718 1852 6714 1852 6701
$$
JJA
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
120 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
PRC009-019-039-043-047-073-075-101-107-113-141-149-192015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0458.110919T1720Z-110919T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BARRANQUITAS PR-CIALES PR-COAMO PR-COROZAL PR-JAYUYA PR-JUANA DIAZ
PR-MOROVIS PR-OROCOVIS PR-PONCE PR-UTUADO PR-VILLALBA PR-AIBONITO PR-
120 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
BARRANQUITAS...CIALES...COAMO...COROZAL...JAYUYA...JUANA DIAZ...
MOROVIS...OROCOVIS...PONCE...UTUADO...VILLALBA AND AIBONITO
* UNTIL 415 PM AST
* AT 119 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER
RISES.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1832 6672 1833 6634 1811 6627 1816 6665
$$
JJA
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1254 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
PRC003-005-011-071-083-097-099-117-131-191900-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0457.110919T1654Z-110919T1900Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-RINCON PR-
AGUADILLA PR-ISABELA PR-AGUADA PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
1254 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS...RINCON...
AGUADILLA...ISABELA...AGUADA AND MAYAGUEZ
* UNTIL 300 PM AST
* AT 1254 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER RISES.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1850 6698 1821 6692 1822 6718 1828 6720
1831 6725 1836 6728 1838 6727 1839 6722
1842 6717 1848 6718 1852 6714 1852 6701
$$
JJA
0 likes
Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
120 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
PRC009-019-039-043-047-073-075-101-107-113-141-149-192015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0458.110919T1720Z-110919T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BARRANQUITAS PR-CIALES PR-COAMO PR-COROZAL PR-JAYUYA PR-JUANA DIAZ
PR-MOROVIS PR-OROCOVIS PR-PONCE PR-UTUADO PR-VILLALBA PR-AIBONITO PR-
120 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
BARRANQUITAS...CIALES...COAMO...COROZAL...JAYUYA...JUANA DIAZ...
MOROVIS...OROCOVIS...PONCE...UTUADO...VILLALBA AND AIBONITO
* UNTIL 415 PM AST
* AT 119 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER
RISES.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1832 6672 1833 6634 1811 6627 1816 6665
$$
JJA
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1254 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
PRC003-005-011-071-083-097-099-117-131-191900-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0457.110919T1654Z-110919T1900Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-RINCON PR-
AGUADILLA PR-ISABELA PR-AGUADA PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
1254 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS...RINCON...
AGUADILLA...ISABELA...AGUADA AND MAYAGUEZ
* UNTIL 300 PM AST
* AT 1254 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER RISES.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1850 6698 1821 6692 1822 6718 1828 6720
1831 6725 1836 6728 1838 6727 1839 6722
1842 6717 1848 6718 1852 6714 1852 6701
$$
JJA
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
120 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
PRC009-019-039-043-047-073-075-101-107-113-141-149-192015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0458.110919T1720Z-110919T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BARRANQUITAS PR-CIALES PR-COAMO PR-COROZAL PR-JAYUYA PR-JUANA DIAZ
PR-MOROVIS PR-OROCOVIS PR-PONCE PR-UTUADO PR-VILLALBA PR-AIBONITO PR-
120 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
BARRANQUITAS...CIALES...COAMO...COROZAL...JAYUYA...JUANA DIAZ...
MOROVIS...OROCOVIS...PONCE...UTUADO...VILLALBA AND AIBONITO
* UNTIL 415 PM AST
* AT 119 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER
RISES.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1832 6672 1833 6634 1811 6627 1816 6665
$$
JJA
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1254 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
PRC003-005-011-071-083-097-099-117-131-191900-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0457.110919T1654Z-110919T1900Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-RINCON PR-
AGUADILLA PR-ISABELA PR-AGUADA PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
1254 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS...RINCON...
AGUADILLA...ISABELA...AGUADA AND MAYAGUEZ
* UNTIL 300 PM AST
* AT 1254 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER RISES.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1850 6698 1821 6692 1822 6718 1828 6720
1831 6725 1836 6728 1838 6727 1839 6722
1842 6717 1848 6718 1852 6714 1852 6701
$$
JJA
0 likes
Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
Last edited by underthwx on Mon Sep 19, 2011 12:47 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145343
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
140 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
PRC001-039-043-047-073-081-083-093-097-101-107-131-141-149-191930-
CIALES PR-COAMO PR-COROZAL PR-JAYUYA PR-LARES PR-MARICAO PR-
MOROVIS PR-OROCOVIS PR-UTUADO PR-VILLALBA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-
ADJUNTAS PR-LAS MARIAS PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
140 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST INTERIOR FROM OROCOVIS WEST TO LAS
MARIAS...
AT 132 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER THESE AREAS...AND
MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF MARBLES...WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
QUICKLY RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD
WATERS.
INTENSE LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG
UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.
$$
RAM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
140 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
PRC001-039-043-047-073-081-083-093-097-101-107-131-141-149-191930-
CIALES PR-COAMO PR-COROZAL PR-JAYUYA PR-LARES PR-MARICAO PR-
MOROVIS PR-OROCOVIS PR-UTUADO PR-VILLALBA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-
ADJUNTAS PR-LAS MARIAS PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
140 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST INTERIOR FROM OROCOVIS WEST TO LAS
MARIAS...
AT 132 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER THESE AREAS...AND
MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF MARBLES...WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
QUICKLY RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD
WATERS.
INTENSE LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG
UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.
$$
RAM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information Archived Outlooks
GIS data: .shp
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1450
MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information Archived Outlooks
GIS data: .shp
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1450
MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN
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