11 PM EDT tropical wx discussion!!!!

[WXBUFFJIM]

Starting off with the top weather story, which will be more of a nuisance weather story before all said and done, Grace. It's showing some grace to the folks along the Texas coast given how poorly organized it is tonight in the northwest Gulf Of Mexico. A tropical storm warning remains in effect tonight for the Texas coast from Corpus Cristi to High Island, TX. However effects from this tropical storm appears minimal at best, which is a saving grace for folks along the Texas coast.

As of 11 PM EDT, the very poorly defined center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 25.5 north, longitude 94.5 west or about 210 miles southeast of Corpus Cristi, Texas. Grace is moving to the west northwest at near 10 mph. This could bring the center onshore along the central Texas coast by Sunday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible prior to landfall through tomorrow evening. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center. Minimum central pressure is 1009 mb or 29.80 inches. That's a 2 millibar increase from 6 hours ago. Rainfall is perhaps the biggest story with grace with amounts of 4-6 inches, maybe locally higher amounts. Storm surge flooding of 2-4 feet above normal tide level along with large battering waves ca be expected in the tropical storm warning area in and near where the center makes landfall. If the intensity remains unchanged through Sunday evening, storm surge levels would be 2 feet or less along the Texas coast. Isolated tornadoes is also a slight possibility in areas north and east of the center. However that probability is low at this point.

Hurricane Jimena continues to hold it's own in the central Pacific east of Hawaii. At 11 PM EDT, the center of Hurricane Jimena was located near latitude 176 north, longitude 145.3 west. maximum sustained winds are now 105 mph with higher gusts. Movement is west at about 17 mph and the minimum central pressure is 970 mb or 28.64 inches..

A hurricane watch remains in effect for the big island of Hawaii meaning that hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the big island of Hawaii meaning that the tropical storm force conditions are expected within 24 hours or less.

Hurricane Fabian on the other hand looks like a classic beauty on satellite imaginary, yet very very dangerous east of the lesser Antillies tonite. Fabian has intensfied to a strong category 3 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale.

As of 11 PM EDT, the center of Hurricane Fabian was located near latitude 17.7 north, longitude 50.8 west or about 710 miles east of the lesser Antillies. Movement continues towards the west northwest at around 13 miles per hour and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 125 mph with higher gusts. This makes Fabian a very strong category 3 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale. Further strengthening is forecast and Fabian is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane with winds over 131 mph by early Sunday morning. Hurricane force winds extend outward 25 miles from the center while the tropical storm force winds extend outwards 115 miles. Minimum central pressure is 952 mb or 28.11 inches of mercury.

Repeating the 11 PM position on Fabian, 17.7 n, 50.8 w, movement wnw 13 mph, maximum sustained winds 125 mph, minimum central pressure 952 mb.

Elsewhere in the tropical atlantic, a well defined tropical wave continues to build up off the west African coast south of the Cape Verde Islands and southeast of Fabian. This wave shows some signs of developing even though is near 8 degrees north latitude, pretty far south. But yet this wave shos potential and will be monitored through the next several days!!!

Jim

[Colin]

Great discussion Jim!