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underthwx
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles

#10321 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 19, 2011 12:51 pm

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 191430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 19 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-111

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: FIX A POTENTIAL TROPICAL
STORM NEAR 13.5N 52.5W AT 22/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles

#10322 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 19, 2011 12:54 pm

underthwx wrote:Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 191430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 19 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-111

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: FIX A POTENTIAL TROPICAL
STORM NEAR 13.5N 52.5W AT 22/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


Interesting that language of potential tropical storm.
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles

#10323 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:02 pm

:uarrow: Yes I find that interesting as well...let's see how the language in the next update reads...
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles

#10324 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:02 pm

CARQ Storm Position
Date: Sep. 19, 2011 12:00 Z (Monday)
Coordinates: 11.7N 37.7W
Wind Speed: 25 kts (28.8 mph, 46.3 km/h, 12.9 m/s)
MSLP: 1008 mb (29.77inHg, 1008 hPa)
Storm Direction: W (265°)
Storm Speed: 5 kts (5.8 mph, 9.3 km/h)
System Depth: Shallow
Isobar details: The last closed isobar has a pressure of 1011 mb. (29.86 inHg, 1011 hPa) The radius of the last closed isobar is 180 nm. (207.1 miles, 333.4 km)
Radius of Max Winds: 60 nm (69 miles, 111.1 km)

This position comes from the model file in the "aid_public" directory of the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) System. CARQ stands for "Combined Automated Response to Query".
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles

#10325 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:05 pm

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N38W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD
5 TO 10 MPH.
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles

#10326 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:09 pm

Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
152 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

PRC001-013-027-065-081-115-141-191945-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0459.110919T1752Z-110919T1945Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HATILLO PR-LARES PR-UTUADO PR-ADJUNTAS PR-ARECIBO PR-CAMUY PR-
QUEBRADILLAS PR-
152 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HATILLO...LARES...UTUADO...ADJUNTAS...ARECIBO...CAMUY AND
QUEBRADILLAS

* UNTIL 345 PM AST

* AT 150 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER
RISES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1847 6679 1818 6667 1821 6690 1831 6691
1836 6689 1837 6691 1838 6692 1848 6694

$$

JJA
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
120 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

PRC009-019-039-043-047-073-075-101-107-113-141-149-192015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0458.110919T1720Z-110919T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BARRANQUITAS PR-CIALES PR-COAMO PR-COROZAL PR-JAYUYA PR-JUANA DIAZ
PR-MOROVIS PR-OROCOVIS PR-PONCE PR-UTUADO PR-VILLALBA PR-AIBONITO PR-
120 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BARRANQUITAS...CIALES...COAMO...COROZAL...JAYUYA...JUANA DIAZ...
MOROVIS...OROCOVIS...PONCE...UTUADO...VILLALBA AND AIBONITO

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 119 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER
RISES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1832 6672 1833 6634 1811 6627 1816 6665

$$

JJA
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1254 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

PRC003-005-011-071-083-097-099-117-131-191900-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0457.110919T1654Z-110919T1900Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-RINCON PR-
AGUADILLA PR-ISABELA PR-AGUADA PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
1254 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS...RINCON...
AGUADILLA...ISABELA...AGUADA AND MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 300 PM AST

* AT 1254 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER RISES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1850 6698 1821 6692 1822 6718 1828 6720
1831 6725 1836 6728 1838 6727 1839 6722
1842 6717 1848 6718 1852 6714 1852 6701

$$

JJA
U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles

#10327 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:09 pm

Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
152 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

PRC001-013-027-065-081-115-141-191945-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0459.110919T1752Z-110919T1945Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HATILLO PR-LARES PR-UTUADO PR-ADJUNTAS PR-ARECIBO PR-CAMUY PR-
QUEBRADILLAS PR-
152 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HATILLO...LARES...UTUADO...ADJUNTAS...ARECIBO...CAMUY AND
QUEBRADILLAS

* UNTIL 345 PM AST

* AT 150 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER
RISES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1847 6679 1818 6667 1821 6690 1831 6691
1836 6689 1837 6691 1838 6692 1848 6694

$$

JJA
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
120 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

PRC009-019-039-043-047-073-075-101-107-113-141-149-192015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0458.110919T1720Z-110919T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BARRANQUITAS PR-CIALES PR-COAMO PR-COROZAL PR-JAYUYA PR-JUANA DIAZ
PR-MOROVIS PR-OROCOVIS PR-PONCE PR-UTUADO PR-VILLALBA PR-AIBONITO PR-
120 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BARRANQUITAS...CIALES...COAMO...COROZAL...JAYUYA...JUANA DIAZ...
MOROVIS...OROCOVIS...PONCE...UTUADO...VILLALBA AND AIBONITO

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 119 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER
RISES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1832 6672 1833 6634 1811 6627 1816 6665

$$

JJA
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1254 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

PRC003-005-011-071-083-097-099-117-131-191900-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0457.110919T1654Z-110919T1900Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-RINCON PR-
AGUADILLA PR-ISABELA PR-AGUADA PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
1254 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS...RINCON...
AGUADILLA...ISABELA...AGUADA AND MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 300 PM AST

* AT 1254 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER RISES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1850 6698 1821 6692 1822 6718 1828 6720
1831 6725 1836 6728 1838 6727 1839 6722
1842 6717 1848 6718 1852 6714 1852 6701

$$

JJA
U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles

#10328 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:09 pm

Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
152 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

PRC001-013-027-065-081-115-141-191945-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0459.110919T1752Z-110919T1945Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HATILLO PR-LARES PR-UTUADO PR-ADJUNTAS PR-ARECIBO PR-CAMUY PR-
QUEBRADILLAS PR-
152 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HATILLO...LARES...UTUADO...ADJUNTAS...ARECIBO...CAMUY AND
QUEBRADILLAS

* UNTIL 345 PM AST

* AT 150 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER
RISES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1847 6679 1818 6667 1821 6690 1831 6691
1836 6689 1837 6691 1838 6692 1848 6694

$$

JJA
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
120 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

PRC009-019-039-043-047-073-075-101-107-113-141-149-192015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0458.110919T1720Z-110919T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BARRANQUITAS PR-CIALES PR-COAMO PR-COROZAL PR-JAYUYA PR-JUANA DIAZ
PR-MOROVIS PR-OROCOVIS PR-PONCE PR-UTUADO PR-VILLALBA PR-AIBONITO PR-
120 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BARRANQUITAS...CIALES...COAMO...COROZAL...JAYUYA...JUANA DIAZ...
MOROVIS...OROCOVIS...PONCE...UTUADO...VILLALBA AND AIBONITO

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 119 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER
RISES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1832 6672 1833 6634 1811 6627 1816 6665

$$

JJA
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1254 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

PRC003-005-011-071-083-097-099-117-131-191900-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0457.110919T1654Z-110919T1900Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-RINCON PR-
AGUADILLA PR-ISABELA PR-AGUADA PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
1254 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS...RINCON...
AGUADILLA...ISABELA...AGUADA AND MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 300 PM AST

* AT 1254 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER RISES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1850 6698 1821 6692 1822 6718 1828 6720
1831 6725 1836 6728 1838 6727 1839 6722
1842 6717 1848 6718 1852 6714 1852 6701

$$

JJA
U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles

#10329 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:12 pm

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N70W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 23N76W...ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA...TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 19N84W...SOUTHERN MEXICO JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N62W...
TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N65W...INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 11N66W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W.
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN THE TROUGHS. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF
70W...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 62W AND
73W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 76W/77W...FROM 13N TO 21N IN
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. ISOLATE MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 15N...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 76W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH...THAT PASSES THROUGH
11N75W...9N80W...BEYOND WESTERN PANAMA AND THE PANAMA BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles

#10330 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:20 pm

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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles

#10331 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:23 pm

Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis:


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 0_SWHR.GIF
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles

#10332 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:29 pm

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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles

#10333 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:29 pm

18z Best Track for 98L.

AL, 98, 2011091918, , BEST, 0, 117N, 387W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles

#10334 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:32 pm

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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles

#10335 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:45 pm

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/TROPDEV/dev120.gif



:uarrow: DEPICTING FAVORABLE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AREAS-DEPICTED IN THE BLUE AREAS
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles

#10336 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:25 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND THEREFORE CONTINUE
TO LIFT PATCHES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING WEAKLY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SHIFTS FURTHER WESTWARD. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH AREAS OF ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEING ADVECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS IN
THE PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PRESENT LOW LEVEL PATTERN IN INDUCING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE PROXIMITY
OF TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DESTABILIZE LOCAL AREA AND ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EXPECT DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS TO DIMINISH DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE
REGIONAL WATERS.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TUTT IS TO PULL FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF AREA
WITH UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
THEREFORE...EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BE MAINLY LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY
INDUCED...WHICH WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS OVER ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS HOWEVER NOT EXPECTED. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
AS AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE DAYTIME...SOME OF WHICH WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES.

BY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A TROPICAL
WAVE STILL WAY OUT IN THE ATLANTIC AND EAST OF THE ISLANDS...IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE FRIDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WAVE STILL HAS A LONG WAY TO
GO BEFORE REACHING THE ISLANDS...BUT SO FAR ALL MODELS AGREE THAT
IS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN TROPICAL ITCZ MOISTURE AND
THUS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. STAY TUNED FOR MORE INFO AS THIS UNFOLDS
WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 20/22Z OVER THE
INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WILL OBSCURE SOME HIGHER MOUNTAINS BUT
TAF SITES IN PR AND ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR...EXCEPT FOR TEMPO MVFR/IFR IN TJBQ. LLVL WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EASTERLY AT 15 KNOTS BELOW 10 THOUSAND FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 77 90 / 20 30 30 30
STT 77 87 78 90 / 50 50 40 40
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles

#10337 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:45 pm

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
322 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

AMZ710-712-732-735-741-742-745-192300-
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
322 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

AT 315 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS...OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO AND MONA PASSAGE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

IN ADDITION...THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN
WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE
LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN.

$$

ER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles

#10338 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 19, 2011 3:11 pm

SSD Dvorak.

19/1745 UTC 10.9N 38.5W T1.0/1.0 98L -- Atlantic
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles

#10339 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 19, 2011 3:24 pm

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR PUERTO RICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 AM AST MON SEP 19 2011

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED...MAINLY OVER CULEBRA...
VIEQUES...THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE WIND WAS VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS CAN GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS
OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

$$
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles

#10340 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 19, 2011 3:28 pm

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
411 AM AST MON SEP 19 2011

PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE WIND WAS MAINLY EAST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EACH DAY.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS CAN GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS
OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

$$
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